Uncertainty grips global economy in Trump's first 6 months of second term
– Trump’s policies triggered back-and-forth reactions in US stock markets: first falling at record pace before soaring to record highs
– Some major tech firms saw steep declines before climbing to all-time highs; gold surged, oil dropped
ISTANBUL
Six months into his second term, US President Donald Trump has returned to the global stage with a familiar weapon: tariffs.
From China to Mexico to the EU, Trump has reignited trade tensions with a barrage of new levies, fulfilling campaign promises but causing great uncertainty in financial markets and global supply chains.
Trump’s renewed focus on his protectionist economic policy has caused sharp reactions in the global markets, commodity prices, precious metals and oil.
Trump first introduced his “reciprocal” tariffs in April, imposing blanket tariffs between 10% to 50% on most countries. He suspended those tariffs for 90 days, except for China, on April 9.
After a back-and-forth tariff standoff with China, Washington agreed to a trade deal after meeting in London last month as the two sides agreed to set back some punitive tariffs, as well as other restrictive measures.
Meanwhile, many countries have been trying to negotiate a better trade agreement, which includes lower tariff rates than was introduced in April by the US.
Other countries the US announced a trade deal with are the UK, Vietnam and Indonesia.
Additionally, the US president has sent letters to numerous countries, informing them of the tariff rate they will be paying as of Aug. 1.
They include the EU and Mexico at 30%, and Canada at 35%.
Trump also introduced new sectoral tariffs, which included a 25% tariff rate for all automotive imports in April.
He also introduced 50% levies on copper imports starting Aug. 1 and a 200% rate on pharma products coming into the US.
Buy the dip, sell the rip
During the first four months of Trump’s second term, the New York Stock Exchange experienced significant turbulence, frequently plunging into the red and wiping away substantial gains from the previous year.
The Dow, a key indicator of America’s largest corporations, experienced a notable decline of roughly 11.5% in four months.
After the trade agreements and the easing of uncertainty, the index recovered, settling at around 44,340 points as of late July, rising 0.72% in the last six months.
Similarly, the S&P 500, another critical barometer of US economic health, had dropped approximately 18% in four months. It had briefly fallen below the psychologically significant 5,000-point mark, illustrating the breadth of market uncertainty.
As of late July, the index was at around 6,296 points, up around 4% in the six-month period, reaching record levels in early July.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq had borne the brunt of market anxieties, experiencing the largest decline of the major indices. It plummeted 24% to 15,270 points, demonstrating investors’ growing apprehension about technology firms and their global supply chains.
But in the last six-month period, the Nasdaq was up 5.76% to record levels of 20,895, with chip company Nvidia leading the gains.
The VIX volatility index, often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear” gauge, had surged dramatically. It rose an alarming 66.6% to 25, spiking briefly beyond 52 points — a record in recent years.
The fear index settled around 16.4 as of late-July, as the tariff fears eased after uncertainty eased.
Alongside equity markets, currency markets also saw volatility. The US dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against major global currencies, fell 10%, declining to around 98.50.
Conversely, the euro surged significantly, climbing approximately 13% against the dollar, settling at $1.16, compared to $1.04 six months earlier.
Safe-havens spike, oil dips
With greater initial uncertainty, investors rushed toward safer investment havens, most notably gold.
Gold prices soared dramatically as uncertainty spread throughout financial markets. During Trump’s first six months in office, the price surged 24%, jumping from around $2,700 per ounce in late January to $3,350 by late July.
In late April, gold reached a historic peak, surpassing $3,500, reflecting mounting fears about global economic turmoil.
Conversely, oil markets faced downward pressure. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell approximately 14.3%, dropping from nearly $80.2 per barrel in late January to around $68.60 by late July.
Market analysts attribute the slump partly to concerns that Trump’s tariffs would dampen global trade activity, reducing oil demand worldwide.
On the other hand, oil experienced a short-lived spike in June, after Israel and the US attacked Iranian nuclear capabilities.
Bitcoin, another asset closely watched due to Trump’s past enthusiasm for cryptocurrency, also witnessed initial volatility before reaching all-time highs.
Initially buoyed by Trump’s campaign pledge to make the US the crypto capital of the planet, Bitcoin had sharply declined by around 8.5% during Trump’s first three months in office.
However, following the easing of uncertainty after trade deal announcements and regulatory optimism, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exceeded the $120,000 threshold in July.
Tesla, Apple, Google, Amazon lose while Nvidia excels to record highs
Perhaps most notably affected by the market uncertainty were shares of technology and innovation-driven companies, often referred to collectively as the “Magnificent Seven.”
Electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Tesla, whose CEO, Elon Musk, was one of Trump’s staunchest financial supporters, contributing more than $130 million to the president’s election campaign, suffered the sharpest losses in the group.
Tesla’s shares fell dramatically, plummeting 20% in six months. Although Trump’s initial election victory had provided a substantial boost to Tesla shares due to his enthusiasm for tech innovation, the realities of global economic uncertainty and reduced investor confidence took their toll on the company’s valuation.
Especially after Musk parted ways with the US president, Tesla’s shares were down around 10% in a little more than a month. In the last six month period, the EV giant’s shares plummeted more than 22%.
Following Tesla in losses was Apple, which faced a drop of 5.1% since Jan. 20. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, also suffered a decline of 6.8%.
E-commerce and tech firm Amazon also saw a decline of around 2% in the same period.
The losses were much lower than they were just two months ago, as the announcements of trade agreements and suspensions eased fears and uncertainty in the markets.
Conversely, Nvidia saw a 22.4% climb in the six-month period in its stock price as the demand for artificial intelligence (AI) technologies grows.
It also became the first publicly traded company to reach a $4 trillion market value.
Microsoft shares were up 19% in the six-month period and Meta shares soared 14.2%.