US Stock Futures Forecast: 5 Factors Threaten Futures Before FOMC Meeting

However, the Fed’s view on the economy and monetary policy outlook for 2026 is likely to be crucial for risk assets. A December rate cut and optimism about avoiding a recession should lift sentiment.

The upcoming US ISM Services PMI data and September’s delayed Personal Income and Outlays report will influence bets on post-December rate cuts. Waning services sector activity and sticky inflation would revive the risk of stagflation, tempering expectations of a dovish December cut.

In my view, the near-term (1-3 weeks) outlook for US stock futures seems bearish, given uncertainties about the economy and the Fed rate path.

Fed Speakers in Focus

Futures had a mixed start to the Asian session. The Dow Jones E-mini slipped 10 points, while the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini advanced 26 points and 2 points, respectively.

Later on Tuesday, traders should monitor FOMC members’ speeches for insights into labor market conditions, inflation, and rate cuts. Growing concerns about the labor market, economic momentum, and sticky inflation would send US stock futures lower, aligning with the bearish near-term outlook.

However, traders will need to wait until the FOMC interest rate decision and economic projections for a clearer picture. Traders are likely to tread cautiously ahead of the December 9-10 FOMC meeting. Over the medium-term (2-6 months), the outlook looks more bullish. Fed policy easing and increased liquidity should boost demand for risk assets.

Key Technical Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500

Despite the mixed morning, the Dow Jones E-mini, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini, and the S&P 500 E-mini traded above their 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling a bullish bias. However, fundamentals have continued to shift away from the technical trend, supporting a bearish short-term outlook.

Near-term trends will hinge on central bank speeches, US data, and JGB yield trends. Key levels to monitor include:

Dow Jones

• Resistance: 47,500, 47,750, 48,000, and the November 12 record high of 48,528.
• Support: 47,000, the 50-day EMA (46,800), 46,000, and then the November 21 low of 45,779.