Should You Buy Tesla Stock Heading Into 2026? The Answer Might Surprise You.

Tesla (TSLA 0.01%) is a leading manufacturer of electric vehicles (EVs), but they aren’t the main driver of the company’s hefty $1.3 trillion market capitalization. In fact, Tesla’s EV deliveries only recently returned to growth after shrinking in 2024 and during the first half of 2025.

Instead, investors are betting that future products like the Cybercab autonomous robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot could be home runs. They have the potential to generate far more revenue than the EV business, and CEO Elon Musk thinks they could make Tesla the most valuable company in the world one day.

However, its stock trades at a sky-high valuation right now, which is likely to keep a lid on further upside while investors wait for the company to commercialize its new products. Should you take a chance on Tesla heading into 2026?

Tesla’s EV business just returned to growth, but there’s a catch

Around 75% of the company’s total revenue still comes from EVs. The company delivered 1.79 million cars during 2024, a 1% decline from the prior year, marking its first annual drop since the launch of the flagship Model S in 2011. The situation initially worsened in 2025 with deliveries shrinking 13% through the first half of the year.

Fortunately, deliveries grew 7% during the third quarter (ended Sept. 30), mainly as American consumers raced to buy cars before the $7,500 EV tax credit expired at the end of September. In other words, Tesla likely saw some of its year-end demand pulled forward, and the company could face weaker deliveries in the fourth quarter.

But the company’s biggest problem is competition. Low-cost manufacturers like China-based BYD can sell EVs at a much lower price point in some of Tesla’s biggest markets across Asia and Europe, and they have become very appealing to budget-conscious consumers. During October alone, BYD’s sales tripled year over year across Europe and the United Kingdom, whereas Tesla’s sales plunged 48%.

Tesla recently launched a cheaper version of its popular Model Y to compete at the lower end of the market, but Musk remains steadfast in his view that the future of this industry is autonomous. As a result, he’s more focused on bringing the company’s Cybercab to market, and it is scheduled to enter mass production in 2026.

The Cybercab will run on Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) software, so it will be able to provide autonomous ride-hailing services, which could create a lucrative, around-the-clock revenue stream for the company. However, FSD isn’t approved for unsupervised use anywhere in the U.S. right now, which is a hurdle the company will have to clear before the robotaxi can hit the road.

Humanoid robots could be a transformative opportunity

Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management believes the Cybercab could generate around $756 billion in annual revenue by 2029. For some perspective, the company is on track to bring in just $95 billion overall this year (mostly from EV sales), which highlights how impactful some investors believe autonomous vehicles could be.

However, this opportunity pales in comparison to Optimus. Musk believes humanoid robots could outnumber human beings by 2040 because they will have applications in businesses and households alike.

He thinks Optimus will be five times more productive than a human because of its ability to work day and night with no breaks. Tesla could start mass-producing the latest version, Optimus 3, by the end of 2026, with the goal of making 1 million units annually.

When Optimus 4 and 5 are developed in the future, Musk thinks his company could roll out up to 100 million units per year. As a result, he predicts the robots could generate $10 trillion in revenue for the company in the long term.

A sky-high valuation could cap further upside in 2026

With products like the Cybercab and Optimus yet to officially roll out, however, EV sales will remain Tesla’s primary source of revenue in 2026. That’s why Wall Street analysts are expecting just 15% top line growth next year, according to Yahoo! Finance.

Tesla’s current valuation is very difficult to justify from that perspective. Its stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 285 as I write this, making it nine times more expensive than the Nasdaq-100 index, which trades at a P/E of 32. It also makes Tesla the most expensive stock in the “Magnificent Seven,” a group of America’s leading tech giants.

Data by YCharts.

If Musk is right about Tesla becoming the world’s most valuable company one day, then its market capitalization will have to rise to at least $4.4 trillion (roughly the value of the current titleholder, Nvidia). That implies potential upside of 240% for its stock from here, so a strong return is theoretically possible.

However, both the Cybercab and Optimus have yet to hit the market, and there is no guarantee they live up to expectations. Every Tesla shareholder should be aware of the very real chance the stock sees massive losses if its valuation comes back down to earth. With that in mind, one thing is for sure: Any potential upside in 2026 looks limited as Tesla’s new products simply won’t scale up in the next 12 months alone.