Nvidia stock jumps as Trump approves H200 AI chip sales to China with 25% US revenue share – Is NVDA now a long-term buy as major uncertainty ends?

Nvidia stock today: Nvidia (NVDA) shares moved higher on Monday after President Donald Trump approved the sale of the company’s H200 artificial-intelligence chips to “approved customers” in China and several other regions. The announcement, made on December 8 on Truth Social, ended months of uncertainty surrounding US export rules for advanced AI hardware.

The policy requires Nvidia to pay 25% of the sales value of each H200 shipment to the US government. The structure mirrors earlier agreements where Nvidia shared 15% of H20 chip revenue. Chinese President Xi Jinping was described as “positive” about the arrangement, signaling rare alignment between Washington and Beijing on tech-trade terms.

Nvidia shares rose about 2% in premarket and after-hours trading, reflecting renewed confidence in the company’s China revenue stream. NVDA last traded at $185.55, up 1.73%, with premarket action lifting it to $186.04.
The reaction highlights the importance of China for Nvidia’s data-center business, which historically accounted for 20%–25% of segment revenue before strict export bans were implemented. Year-to-date, Nvidia shares have surged nearly 40%, far ahead of the S&P 500’s 16.4% gain.

Investors welcomed the clarity after months of shifting rules that had forced Nvidia to design weaker, low-demand chips for China. The new approval reinstates a high-value product line at a time when global AI infrastructure spending remains strong.

What the policy shift means for US–China tech relations

The move marks a sharp departure from the Biden-era export restrictions, which blocked H100, H200, and comparable high-performance chips from being sold into China. Trump framed the new rule as a “balanced” approach that protects national security while supporting American manufacturing and tech leadership.
The approval does not apply to Nvidia’s most advanced Blackwell or Rubin chips. Only the H200—a powerful chip used in AI training and inference—receives clearance under the revenue-share model. US officials will still screen buyers, and sales must follow Commerce Department approval. But the decision signals a new framework that may extend to AMD, Intel and other chipmakers seeking similar export permissions.

How much revenue could Nvidia recover from China?

Analysts say reopening the China channel for H200 chips could add $2 billion to $5 billion in annual revenue, depending on shipment volume and government vetting. Before the restrictions, Nvidia reported quarterly data-center revenue of $39 billion, and internal projections estimated $4.5–$8 billion in lost sales tied to China bans.

The H200 sits directly in a demand gap left by downgraded alternatives like the H20, which saw low interest among major Chinese developers. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly noted “surging inference demand” from Chinese AI companies, even under earlier restrictions.

If the new export policy drives material orders, Nvidia’s Q4 FY2026 revenue, currently projected at $61–$64 billion, could surpass expectations. Wall Street has also flagged potential EPS upside above the $1.25–$1.43 guidance range.

What risks still remain for Nvidia’s China business?

The new policy does not eliminate all pressure. China continues to accelerate its domestic semiconductor push, raising questions about how long US-made AI chips will dominate the market. The 25% revenue-share requirement may also affect Nvidia’s margins, depending on shipment scale.

There is also the chance that Congress or national-security agencies push back if sales expand too rapidly. Lawmakers have already raised concerns that even controlled exports could strengthen China’s AI capabilities in sensitive sectors.

But for now, Nvidia gains breathing room in a market that is vital to its long-term AI roadmap. The positive response from Xi Jinping reduces the risk of retaliation and opens a more predictable channel for AI-chip trade.

Is NVDA now a long-term buy as major uncertainty ends?

Nvidia (NVDA) increasingly looks like a strong long-term buy as the Trump administration’s approval of H200 chip sales to China removes a major revenue overhang that previously cost the company billions. Wall Street remains firmly bullish, with 43 of 48 analysts rating NVDA a Strong Buy and average price targets of $235–$249, suggesting more than 35% upside from recent levels near $181–$184.

Forward P/E valuations of 23–38 sit below past peaks, supported by data-center growth consistently above 50% per quarter and Citi’s $270 target tied to accelerating AI inference demand. Growth visibility strengthens with Blackwell platform ramps and restored China access, which could add $2–$5 billion annually even after the 25% US revenue share.

Nvidia maintains gross margins near 70%, net margins above 50%, and minimal debt, reinforcing its lead over rivals like AMD as hyperscalers expand AI infrastructure. Risks remain, including China’s domestic chip ambitions, potential export-volume limits, and Nvidia’s high beta of 2.28, which magnifies volatility. Still, the secular AI boom and Nvidia’s unmatched GPU ecosystem position long-term investors well despite near-term fluctuations.