Traders Expect a Big Nvidia Stock Move After Earnings—Here's How Much

Nvidia (NVDA) stock rose nearly 4% on Wednesday ahead of the release of the AI chip giant’s hotly anticipated fourth-quarter earnings report after the closing bell.

Nvidia holds the record for both the largest one-day increase and decrease in market value, and options traders on Wednesday were positioning themselves for another sizable move in the stock in the coming days. 

Nvidia options pricing on Wednesday afternoon suggested traders expected shares to move roughly $10, or about 8%, in either direction during the two days after Wednesday’s earnings. That would be the stock’s largest post-earnings move since May when shares gained more than 12% in the two days after Nvidia blew past earnings expectations. 

Nvidia shares fell 1.5% in extended trading Wednesday despite better-than-expected results on both the top and bottom lines amid booming demand for AI.

Nvidia stock retreated after each of its two most recent reports. Shares lost more than 4% in the days after its August report and almost 3% after its November earnings. The company’s results also exceeded expectations in both of those instances, but disappointed investors who may have been looking for even larger beats. 

Nvidia’s earnings arrived during a difficult stretch for stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had fallen in four consecutive sessions before closing slightly higher on Wednesday. The Magnificent Seven stocks, which have accounted for a large share of the stock market’s gains over the last two years, were trading in correction territory on Wednesday. 

Big tech stocks have been weighed down by substantial political and economic uncertainty of late. Chinese start-up DeepSeek prompted a reckoning with Silicon Valley’s AI strategy late last month, and tech stocks have struggled to shake off concerns about overspending. At the same time, the economic outlook has been muddled in the last month by signs of stubborn inflation and the Trump administration’s ever-changing tariff plans. 

Even with its gain during regular trading hours Wednesday, Nvidia stock has lost 12% of its value since closing at an all-time high in early January. Shares remain up 66% over the past 12 months.

UPDATE: This article has been updated with the latest stock market prices and information about Nvidia’s earnings report.