Prediction: Rivian Stock Is a Buy Before 2031

Rivian (RIVN 0.92%) stock has had a tough 2026. Shares have lost roughly 25% of their value since the year began. But if you’re willing to look beyond the past few months, the upside potential becomes clear. In fact, there’s one catalyst in particular that could make Rivian a monster stock by 2031.

Expect robotaxis to take off by 2031

There’s a strange thing occurring right now. Tesla (TSLA 2.60%) has faced declining auto sales for several years now. Yet the company isn’t going all out to revive its struggling auto sales. Instead, it’s dedicating the bulk of its $20 billion capital expenditure budget this year to new opportunities. The biggest of these opportunities is likely the robotaxi market, which many experts believe will eventually be worth trillions of dollars globally.

When will robotaxis take off? It depends on who you ask. But global consultancy McKinsey & Co. recently surveyed a variety of experts and settled on a single date: 2030. “[T]he global rollout of robo-taxis is now expected to become reality at a large scale in 2030,” a report from the firm concludes. “Overall, experts expect that robo-taxis will be the first commercial application for L4 in mobility–not privately owned cars.”

Out of all the EV stocks on the market today, Tesla is my favorite pick to dominate the rapidly emerging robotaxi market. The company’s existing manufacturing capacity, worldwide brand recognition, heavy investment in artificial intelligence, and unparalleled access to capital almost guarantee it a big slice of this nascent opportunity.

While it lacks many of the advantages that Tesla already enjoys, I also expect Rivian to compete heavily in the robotaxi market. The company has shifted its strategy aggressively in recent quarters. According to a recent disclosure, the company “no longer expects to be adjusted EBITDA positive in 2027 due to an expected increase in R&D spend associated with the acceleration of its autonomy roadmap.” In short, Rivian is going all in on self-driving vehicles and robotaxis.

It’s still too early to tell how successful Rivian’s updated strategy will be. We do have some early validation, such as a $1.25 billion order from Uber Technologies for up to 50,000 Rivian vehicles — vehicles that will be used to power Uber’s own robotaxi arm. But if experts are correct, robotaxis will reach global scale by 2030. If Rivian is successful in its pivot, 2031 may be too late for investors to jump in.