May 17, 2026

Cathie Wood Bets On Kalshi, But Her Ark Innovation ETF Hasn't Been Great At Timing Winners

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Cathie Wood‘s ARK Invest joined Kalshi’s $1 billion Series F last week at a $22 billion valuation, slotting the prediction market behind only SpaceX and OpenAI in the ARK Venture Fund.

Wood called prediction markets “a powerful new layer of financial infrastructure.” Kalshi will be hoping this prediction is more accurate than many of her previous ones.

A Decade Of Big Calls That Did Not Land

Morningstar analyst Amy Arnott labeled the ARK fund family the worst wealth destroyer of any U.S. fund group in 2024, estimating roughly $14.3 billion in shareholder value erased from 2014 to 2024.

That was more than double the second-worst family.

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ARK Innovation ETF made Teladoc Health its largest position around $80 a share. Teladoc is trading under $7 today.

She loaded up on Zoom Communications near $300; the stock trades at $103 today. And ARKK fully exited Nvidia in January 2023 at a split-adjusted price near $15. Nvidia is at $226 today.

Not everyone reads it as a wipeout. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out on X that ARKK is up 322% since launch, beating Fidelity Magellan, and Wood was “smart enough to buy Nvidia, Bitcoin and Tesla and a few other powerhouses 10 years ago.”

His main critique is mechanical: Wood “had right picks but didn’t let winners run, is always trimming studs and adding to duds to keep weightings.”

Wood predicted Tesla would generate between $234 and $367 billion in 2025 revenue. The company posted $94.8 billion, its first annual decline ever.

What Tesla’s Prediction Markets Say Now

Tesla remains ARK’s largest position despite a Q1 trim, but Kalshi traders are skeptical Tesla will generate meaningful revenue from anything other than EVs anytime soon.

And the EV business is shrinking, BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s biggest EV maker last year.

Kalshi gives only a 16% chance Optimus is released this year and a 4.5% chance that the Roadster begins delivery this year, but a 47% chance over 1,000 Semi Trucks are delivered.

The Comeback Window Is Closing

ARKK has rebounded 52% over the past 12 months versus 22% for the S&P 500. But the fund remains roughly 50% below its February 2021 peak.

In December 2022, Wood told investors ARK’s strategies could compound at 40% annually over five years. That window closes this December. ARKK would need to roughly triple from current levels to hit it.

Bernstein projects prediction market volumes reaching $1 trillion by 2030. Kalshi may yet rescue the decade.

Image: Shutterstock

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Cathie Wood Bets On Kalshi, But Her Ark Innovation ETF Hasn&#039;t Been Great At Timing Winners