Dow Jones closes above 52,000 for the first time as US-Iran truce holds
12:30pm: Tech strength
The Nasdaq continued to lead stocks higher in the early afternoon on Monday, up 1.4% while the S&P 500 was up 0.8% and the Dow Jones added 0.4%.
“At least the Dow has recouped the 52,000 level in early trading,” IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said.
“The bias lies to the upside over the next few sessions, helped by the fact that president Trump seems keen to avoid any further hostilities with Iran ahead of the 4th July holiday.”
11:15am: Week ahead
Wall Street heads into a holiday-shortened week with investors focused on US labor market data, Federal Reserve communications, and a steady flow of corporate events spanning spin-offs, IPOs, and earnings, as markets continue to reassess the inflation and growth outlook into the second half of the year.
US markets will be closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday, making Thursday’s June nonfarm payrolls report the central macroeconomic release of the week.
Economists expect job creation to moderate from May, with forecasts around 110,000 to 120,000 additions and unemployment steady at 4.3%, alongside stable wage growth near 0.3% month-on-month.
“The US labour market data this week will be the key macro driver in an otherwise quiet holiday period,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote.
Ozkardeskaya added that markets are increasingly sensitive not just to job creation but to “any signs of wage persistence,” given the Fed’s renewed focus on inflation risks.
Attention will also turn to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who is due to speak at the ECB’s Sintra forum alongside other global central bankers. Markets are expected to closely monitor any commentary for signals on inflation tolerance and policy direction, particularly after recent shifts in Fed rhetoric.
“Every sentence, every word will be scrutinized for clues about where the Fed is headed next,” Ozkardeskaya noted, highlighting the sensitivity around communication at a time when forward guidance remains limited.
Deutsche Bank analysts echoed that view, emphasizing that policy messaging remains firmly tied to inflation dynamics rather than near-term rate expectations. They noted that recent data continue to show underlying price pressures above target, even as energy-driven inflation eases.
“We expect him to continue to avoid any hints on the potential near-term path for monetary policy,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote, adding that core inflation trends remain “concerning” despite some moderation in headline pressures.
In equity markets, sentiment remains shaped by recent volatility in technology stocks, where sharp swings have raised questions about positioning rather than fundamentals.
Corporate activity is also set to pick up. Honeywell Aerospace will begin trading as an independent company following its spin-off from Honeywell, while S&P Global will separate its automotive data business into the newly listed Mobility Global. The moves reflect ongoing portfolio restructuring across large-cap industrial and data-focused firms.
IPO activity remains active, led by Bending Spoons, alongside listings from Neutron Holdings, CopperTech, and ITG, underscoring continued issuance despite uneven market sentiment.
10:15am: Peace optimism
US stocks kicked off Monday’s session in positive territory after the US and Iran agreed to stop attacking each other over the weekend, paving the way for peace talks to continue.
The Nasdaq added 0.8% at 25,497 points, the Dow Jones added 0.6% at 52,168 points and the S&P 500 was up 0.5% at 7,390 points.
“So far, so calm,” wrote Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote, noting that “given the ugly weekend news regarding the US and Iran’s mutual attacks, I was expecting the week to start on a sour note. But not at all. The two countries announced that they would stop fighting, and the sun is shining again.”
Oil markets, while initially sensitive to developments in the Strait of Hormuz, remained relatively stable, with crude benchmarks consolidating near recent levels. Ozkardeskaya observed that “although traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been affected since the attacks began last week, the impact on oil prices remains relatively contained.”
Tech stocks are expected to remain under pressure after sharp losses in semiconductors, with memory chip makers and major storage names extending declines despite strong earnings reports. Hedge fund positioning also shifted aggressively, with “hedge funds dumped their technology holdings at the fastest pace on record,” Ozkardeskaya said.
Despite the pullback, the broader AI-driven earnings story remains intact. “AI investment continues to grow at a parabolic pace—with Big Tech expected to spend between $800bn and $1tn on AI infrastructure this year—and those investments continue to boost corporate profits,” Ozkardeskaya added, with S&P 500 earnings expected to rise more than 21% in Q2.
7:39am: Ahead of the bell
US stock futures rose on Monday after reports that Washington and Tehran had agreed to halt the tit-for-tat attacks that broke out over the weekend, allowing peace talks to continue.
Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.2%, while S&P 500 futures added 0.8%, following sharp losses for both indices last week.
The proxy for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, less exposed to technology names, put on roughly 0.4%.
Markets had entered the holiday-shortened week on edge after the US launched strikes on Iranian military targets, escalating tensions in the Middle East and reviving concerns over global energy supplies.
Oil prices rose early on but pared their gains as investors weighed the risk of further disruption to crude supplies.
Brent crude was up 0.6% at $73 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate traded just below $70.
The flare-up added to pressure on markets already rattled by a sell-off in technology shares, with Nvidia and Alphabet both sliding more than 8% over the week.
South Korean stocks staged a recovery, with the Kospi closing down just 0.2% after dropping as much as 3.4%.
The rebound came as Samsung Electronics (KRX:005930) and SK Hynix pledged heavy investment during a government briefing underlining the country’s commitment to AI.
The week’s highlight will be Thursday’s June jobs report, brought forward from Friday because of the Fourth of July holiday.