Trump fired the BLS chief last year over 'rigged' data claims. New research says the move cost the US economy $20 billion

Last year, President Donald Trump took the unprecedented step of ousting Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after alleging economic data was being “rigged” without evidence. Now, research suggests Trump’s move packed a punch against the U.S. economy.

A new analysis published (1) in the Center for Economic and Policy Research from four economists indicates that the U.S. economy took a $20 billion hit in lost economic activity due to Trump’s firing of McEntarfer last August. The analysis attributed the figure to a “sharp increase” in policy uncertainty that depressed economic activity since businesses operating in a cloudy landscape tend to pause investment decisions.

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“The estimate is necessarily imprecise, but the broader implication is clear: trustworthy federal statistics are valuable economic infrastructure,” the quartet of economists wrote in the blog post, adding that the finding was “particularly relevant for democracies” managing top-tier statistical agencies to measure economic development.

Other instances of data-meddling abroad

The analysis was authored by Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford University economist; Erica Groshen, an ex-BLS commissioner; Duncan Hobbs, a senior research associate at the American Enterprise Institute; and Michael Strain, another AEI economist.

They applied a statistical model previously used to measure the economic impact of uncertainty during the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic. They calculated the impact to total $20 billion in lost output.

The group argued that preserving independent economic data is critical for the US economic growth since reliable statistics allow consumers and businesses to make their financial decisions with having to fly blind.

“Protecting the credibility, independence, and technical capacity of federal statistical agencies is therefore not merely an administrative concern,” they wrote. “It is a consequential economic one.”

Trump’s firing of McEntarfer generated comparisons to similar instances of politically-motivated data meddling in Argentina (2), Greece (3) and China. (4) In Argentina’s case, the 2010 ouster of the country’s independent statistics chief led to a spike in borrowing costs since Argentina began doctoring inflation figures and investors lost faith in its economic data collection.

The authors stressed that financial markets, businesses and consumers hadn’t lost confidence in the BLS. It still regularly releases data on employment, inflation, wages and more. The latest jobs report indicated (5) that employers added 172,000 jobs in May, underscoring the U.S. economy’s resilience against a spike in gas prices and overall inflation from the war with Iran.

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BLS still doesn’t have a new permanent leader

McEntarfer was fired on Aug. 1 after a lackluster jobs report that included large downward revisions in employment growth for May and June 2025. The BLS, which falls under the Labor Department, routinely updates its published figures to reflect new information it didn’t initially have during its surveys of households and businesses. Career civil servants at the agency carry those out.

William Wiatrowski took over as acting BLS commissioner and he still remains in the post since the Senate hasn’t confirmed a permanent replacement yet. In January, Trump nominated veteran economist Brett Matsumoto to helm BLS, and the pick of a “data nerd” (6) garnered support from leading economists and policymakers in both parties. Matsumoto vowed to uphold (7) the agency’s independence during his confirmation hearing earlier this month.

“It is important for the public to be confident that decisions at the BLS are being driven by science rather than politics,” Matsumoto said (8). It’s not clear when the Senate will vote on his nomination.

BLS has a third of its top leadership positions (9) vacant on its website, as the agency struggles to overcome a hiring freeze, deferred resignations and early retirements.

More high-profile firings are possible. The Supreme Court on Monday in a 6-3 decision gave the White House (10) a green light to fire independent government regulators despite federal job protections long in place. However, it declared one major institution out of bounds: The Federal Reserve.

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Cepr (1); Qz (2); Nytimes (3), (6), (10); Cambridge (4); Bls (5), (9); Wsj (7); Help Senate (8)

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