Stock analysts may be setting up the market for a summer failure

There is such a thing as being too bullish.

Nearly 60% of S&P 500 (^GSPC) stocks now carry a Buy rating from Wall Street analysts, the highest level on record, according to Creative Planning chief market strategist Charlie Bilello. The percentage of Hold ratings has steadily declined this year, while the number of Sell ratings has stayed steady.

Overall, Wall Street is expecting S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) to grow 22% year over year for the second quarter. This is the highest estimate heading into earnings season since 2021.

“When everyone is expecting good news, there’s less room for positive surprises. That’s the setup entering Q2 earnings season,” Bilello warned.

Companies have a lot on their plates, hinting that earnings estimates are a little too high and the outsized bullish ratings are a stretch.

Investors must watch whether megacap tech giants such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) can show tangible AI revenue to justify their multibillion-dollar infrastructure spending.

Wall Street will also be laser-focused on corporate margin durability, tracking how well companies are absorbing higher input costs caused by the Iran war. Additionally, corporate guidance will be heavily scrutinized for signs of a widening “K-shaped” consumer divergence, which has begun favoring cheaper private-label volume over premium ticket sizes.

“A solid macro backdrop and the ongoing AI investment boom should lead to another quarter of strong earnings results despite an elevated hurdle set by analyst estimates,” Goldman Sachs Ben Snider said in a note.

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance’s editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.

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