SpaceX Stock Is 169% Overvalued According to Experts. Here’s Why.

Key PointsSpaceX is an exciting business with unique growth opportunities.The math still needs to make sense to warrant an investment.SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) officially priced its IPO at $135 per share. Very quickly, however, the stock’s valuation soared to $225 per share. Even following a sharp correction, shares still trade around $170 per share — well above the IPO price just a few weeks prior.A report from research firm Morningstar, however, is pumping the brakes. The firm believes SpaceX to be worth just $63 per share — nearly two-thirds less than the prevailing stock price.Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a “Double Down” signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same “Total Conviction” signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »Is SpaceX stock really 169% overvalued? Let’s take a look at Morningstar’s arguments.Here’s why SpaceX stock may be overvaluedMorningstar’s research team clearly took a very close look at SpaceX’s IPO prospectus. That 370 page document lays out the company’s plans for growth, as well as its updated financial situation.There are many factors driving SpaceX’s stock price right now. But one of the biggest is the company’s claimed total addressable market, or TAM. This measures the expected value of SpaceX’s end markets over the long term. In a nutshell, it paints a picture of how big SpaceX could eventually become in the years and decades to come.”We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history,” SpaceX claims. “We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion.”With a market cap of around $2 trillion, there seems to be plenty of room left for SpaceX to grow. But Morningstar’s analysts aren’t buying it.”Our valuation is the result of mathematics more than skepticism,” the firm’s report stresses. “Even at $63 per share, we give SpaceX a lot of benefit of the doubt in two of the three scenarios, in which we assume the company can achieve a rapidly reusable Starship rocket enabling multiple launches per week and successfully commercialize data centers in space. Neither of these engineering problems has been solved, and we don’t expect them to be until at least 2028.”Rocket taking off in a cloud of smoke.Image source: Getty Images.AdvertisementThis all gets to the crux of Morningstar’s argument. The firm likes SpaceX as a business. But even assuming the company executes on several moonshot growth initiatives, the numbers still don’t add up.”In our most optimistic ‘moonshot’ scenario, the company would be worth $1.97 trillion, or $154 a share,” Morningstar concludes. So even when factoring in total success, SpaceX’s current stock price is still above the company’s estimated valuation.It is still possible to pay too much for an otherwise attractive business. And from my perspective, Morningstar’s claims have some value. Investors should remember that, even if they love SpaceX as a business, the numbers still need to make sense to warrant an investment.Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now?Before you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies, consider this:The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Space Exploration Technologies wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $418,761!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,195,804!*Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 918% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 208% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.See the 10 stocks »*Stock Advisor returns as of July 4, 2026.Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.