Wall Street's next AI trade is smaller than a grain of rice: One Big Idea
The AI trade is getting its first real stress test since Wall Street discovered the bottleneck playbook. Chips are sliding, memory is cracking, and investors are already hunting for the next scarce part of the server rack.
Memory chips showed how fast that playbook can work, as poster child Micron (MU) surged nearly 1800% off the April 2025 lows. But the market is already moving on to the next question: What else inside an AI server cannot scale fast enough?
The latest answer is the part of the AI trade that is smaller than a grain of rice.
Multilayer ceramic capacitors, or MLCCs, are tiny components that help smooth voltage, filter electrical noise, and keep chips from glitching when power demand surges. AI servers do not draw power in a calm, steady stream. GPUs and custom chips ramp up, pause, and ramp up again as they process huge calculations.
That makes MLCCs a natural target for Wall Street’s bottleneck hunt.
A late-May Goldman Sachs thesis put capacitors forward as the next potential AI squeeze after memory. Goldman’s work put MLCCs behind only GPUs and memory among the biggest cost items in AI server builds, and estimated the AI-server MLCC market could grow more than fourfold from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2030.
The scale explains the chase. A single advanced AI server rack can require hundreds of thousands of MLCCs. If every next-generation AI rack needs more of them and suppliers cannot add capacity quickly, a boring component can suddenly become a pricing-power trade.
That is what investors have been chasing.
Selected Asian MLCC and passive-component stocks tied to the AI server supply chain have surged off the March 30 lows. Taiyo Yuden (6976.T), Walsin (2492.TW), Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS), Yageo (2327.TW), Murata (6981.T), and TDK (6762.T) all rallied hard, with several more than tripling before the latest pullback.
Now comes the harder part.
Several of those names are down more than 20% from 52-week highs, and a few are off more than 30%. That puts them in the same AI hardware unwind hitting chips, memory, and the broader semiconductor complex. However, capacitor stocks are not moving in one clean wave — a sign this is still more an emerging theme than a fully formed basket trade.
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The next test is whether the strongest MLCC suppliers can stop falling, rebuild support, and keep seeing pricing power.
Goldman added fuel in early July, with fresh upgrades across the MLCC and capacitor supply chain, including Yageo, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, and LG Innotek. Goldman pointed to AI server demand, rising component content, and tighter supply as drivers of higher earnings estimates.
For US investors, the trade is harder to reach than memory.
The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) gave investors a simple shortcut when Samsung and SK Hynix became the center of the memory trade.
MLCCs are more scattered. The key companies trade across Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China. Some have US over-the-counter tickers, including Murata Manufacturing (MRAAY), Taiyo Yuden (TYOYY), TDK (TTDKY), and Yageo (YAGOY). But there is no pure US-listed capacitor ETF.
How US investors can reach the capacitor trade through ETFs
|
ETF |
Company exposure |
What investors get |
|---|---|---|
|
Murata — 13% TDK — 6% Samsung Electro-Mechanics — 2% |
● Closest one-ticket proxy ● Japan/Korea component exposure ● Still an energy-storage ETF |
|
|
Samsung Electro-Mechanics — 5% SK Hynix — 5% Samsung Electronics — 20% |
● Best route for Samsung Electro-Mechanics● Also a Korea AI/memory basket ● Smaller active ETF |
|
|
Samsung Electro-Mechanics — 3% SK Hynix / Samsung Electronics — total nearly 50% |
● Liquid Korea route ● More memory than capacitor ● ETF is also a memory trade |
|
|
Delta Electronics — 5% Yageo — 3% |
● Liquid Taiwan route ● AI hardware plus passive components ● TSMC still dominates |
|
|
Delta Electronics — 8% Yageo — 2% |
● Cheaper Taiwan route ● More Delta than EWT ● Still broad Taiwan beta |
|
|
Murata — 2% |
● Liquid Japan route ● Clean access, diluted exposure ● More country fund than bottleneck trade |
That leaves investors with a less satisfying but more realistic answer: The MLCC trade can be tracked, but not yet easily owned in pure form.
If the strongest suppliers hold up after the chip sell-off and pricing keeps moving their way, the AI bottleneck trade has not ended.
It has simply moved deeper inside the rack.
Jared Blikre is the global markets and data editor for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @SPYJared or email him at jaredblikre@yahooinc.com.
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