International Student Crackdown Blows A Wisconsin-Sized Hole In US Economy, Analysis Shows

Key Takeaways

• Restrictions on international students imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration are likely to deprive the U.S. economy of many of its best-educated workers, a new analysis found.

• The loss of highly educated science and technology workers could cause serious long-term damage to the economy if the decline persists, a hit the analysis compares to erasing the output of a midsize state.

• A decade out, annual U.S. GDP could be $240 billion to $481 billion lower than it otherwise would be if the decline holds, the researchers estimate.

When the White House restricted international students in 2025, it might as well have removed a state the size of Wisconsin from the U.S. economy.

That’s according to an analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). It found that F-1 student visa issuance ran about a third below normal through September 2025, after a series of 2025 rule changes made it harder for foreigners to study at U.S. universities and stay to work after graduating.

Because 35% of doctoral-level STEM workers are foreign-born and U.S.-trained, the cutback could seriously weaken the high-skill workforce and slow economic growth for years. A decade from now, annual GDP could be $240 billion to $481 billion less than it otherwise would be, a loss the size of Wisconsin’s economy, PIIE researcher Michael A. Clemens wrote.

What This Means For The Economy

The PIIE analysis highlights the long-term consequences of cutting off multiple pathways that allow foreign students to train in high-tech fields at U.S. universities and work here after they graduate.

Clemens and his co-authors, Amy Nice of Cornell University and Jeremy Neufeld of the Institute for Progress, pulled together separate academic studies to gauge the cumulative effect of the administration’s crackdown on international students.

For example, last August, the administration moved to restrict student visas to a four-year maximum—too short for many graduate and doctoral tracks unless students win an extension.

The administration has also pressured Ivy League schools to limit foreign student enrollment, targeted visa programs that are common pathways for foreign-born workers to join the workforce, and detained international students for pro-Palestinian protests, causing students overseas to consider other countries for their education, among other actions.

Could U.S.-born workers offset the loss of the best-educated foreigners? Probably not, since international students are not currently “crowding out” opportunities for American-born STEM majors, according to studies cited by the PIIE researchers in the paper.

“In comparable past episodes, neither foreign-trained workers from abroad nor U.S.-born students stepped in to fill the gap,” Clemens wrote. “We see no reason this time will be different.”

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