How much will Social Security benefits go up next year? Here’s when you’ll know 2027 COLA

Rising inflation means Social Security recipients could get their highest cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, since 2023. They’ll have to wait a while longer, however, to find out exactly how much their checks will increase.

Social Security’s COLA is determined by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W’s, percentage increase in the third quarter of the year – July, August and September. That figure is compiled and then compared to the CPI-W for the same period the previous year. The year-over-year difference is the new COLA payable in the coming year.

The latest projections from the non-partisan The Senior Citizens League predict a 2027 COLA of 3.8%. That would be the largest jump since 2022, when beneficiaries saw a massive post-COVID increase of 8.7%. Since then, COLA has been 3.2%, 2.5% and 2.8% for 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Next year’s increase won’t be finalized until the Labor Department releases its September inflation data. That’s set to happen on Oct. 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET. After that, the Social Security Administration will announce the 2027 increase payable on the first check in the new year.

READ MORE: Social Security payment change: Why some beneficiaries will get 2 checks this month

What would the 3.8% COLA mean for beneficiaries?

If the COLA were put in place today, average benefits would rise by $73.62, from $1937.53 to $2,011.15. Critics say the current formula doesn’t keep up with inflation and more than half of that increase will likely be eaten up by higher prices for Medicare Part B. Last year, the standard monthly Medicare Part B premium rose $17.90 to $202.90 a month while the annual deductible rose to $283, a $26 increase. 2026 marked the first time the standard premium topped the $200 mark.