Tesla Stock Eyes Mag 7’s Worst July — Gordon Johnson Says Q2 Numbers Expose FSD’s ‘Ridiculous’ Valuation
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Gordon Johnson estimated FSD at about $1.8 billion in annual revenue versus $350 billion of implied market value.
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George Noble warned “the crash will be epic” and called Tesla a “$30 stock masquerading as a $300 stock.”
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Tesla expects 2026 capex to top $25 billion as it ramps spending on Robotaxi, Optimus, semiconductors and AI infrastructure.
Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) are heading toward the weakest July performance among “Magnificent Seven” stocks, with new second-quarter (Q2) disclosures giving critics fresh ammunition to challenge the valuation investors assign to its Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi businesses.
TSLA stock fell 3% on Wednesday to close at $298.32, slipping below $300 for the first time since August 2025. The shares are also on track for a third straight weekly decline and their worst monthly performance since December 2022.
Over the past month, Tesla has trailed the rest of the Magnificent Seven by a wide margin, tumbling 28%. Amazon fell 6%, Alphabet 5% and Nvidia 3%, while Meta gained 4%, Microsoft rose 6% and Apple surged 20%.
Johnson Calls FSD Valuation ‘Ridiculous’
Tesla said FSD had nearly 1.5 million paid customers globally at the end of Q2, with 55% coming from upfront purchases and 45% from subscriptions. In North America, about 55% of deliveries had FSD enabled at the time of delivery. GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson used these figures to argue that the market value investors attribute to FSD is far ahead of its current economics.
Assuming each paid customer generates $100 per month, Johnson estimated FSD at $1.8 billion in annual revenue. He said that the market is effectively assigning about $350 billion of Tesla’s valuation to FSD, which is close to 200x its estimated revenue. Johnson said Tesla’s Q2 disclosures were important because investors could finally “put value on what robotaxis and FSD is worth,” calling the resulting valuation gap “ridiculous.”
Bears Target Tesla’s Robotaxi Valuation
Tesla also disclosed more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised Robotaxi driving across six cities. Using this figure, Johnson built an intentionally generous scenario: 100,000 miles in a month, $2 in revenue per mile and eventually scaling the service across the U.S. This produced an estimated nationwide Robotaxi revenue opportunity of about $840 million, while Johnson said that the market assigns around $700 billion of value to the business.
“Do you understand how ridiculous that is?” Johnson said. He noted that his estimate excluded costs including depreciation, cleaning, operations, labor and remote supervision, while assuming extraordinarily broad adoption.
Investor George Noble pushed the argument further, saying Tesla’s valuation rests heavily on a Robotaxi business that its own operating data suggests is far smaller than what investors have priced in. “The crash will be epic,” Noble said, later calling Tesla a “$30 stock masquerading as a $300 stock.” Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, also warned earlier this week that Tesla would fall below $300 shortly as AI valuations come under pressure.
Tesla Defends Camera-Only Robotaxi Bet
Johnson said Robotaxi’s real-world launch put Tesla “on the clock,” turning years of FSD promises into measurable mileage and economics and raising the risk of “perpetual disappointment” if targets slip. He also said “vision only does not work,” while Tesla argues the opposite.
AI chief Ashok Elluswamy cited more than 380,000 unsupervised miles with “zero notable incidents” as a “huge validation” of its camera-only approach. Meanwhile, Musk said that demand should not be the constraint, calling Robotaxi economics “so compelling” and saying the main hurdle is achieving the “march of nines of reliability.”
The debate comes as Tesla enters one of its heaviest investment cycles. Tesla’s Q2 free cash flow turned negative as capital spending more than doubled from a quarter ago. The company expects 2026 capex to exceed $25 billion and rise further over the next two to three years as it invests in Robotaxi, Optimus, semiconductor production and AI infrastructure. Musk remains bullish, calling 2026 a “massive Capex year” and saying Tesla expects the investments to generate some of the strongest returns in its history.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA improved to ‘neutral’ from ‘bearish’ levels a day ago amid ‘high’ message volume.
One user said, “$TSLA Oversold…this will go up to $320 by end of week. Grab them under $300 during the AM if possible. By late September, this will be back to $400 range.”
Another user said, “$TSLA just broke 52-week low again// $290 incoming wouldn’t be surprised if this thing ends the week in 280s”
So far this year, Tesla’s stock has lagged its “Magnificent Seven” peers, making it the group’s worst performer, down 34%. Even so, Tesla continues to command a premium valuation, trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 155x, by far the highest multiple among the Magnificent Seven stocks.
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Deepti Sri has no position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. StockTwits’ news team content is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. For more, see our editorial policy. This article was originally published on StockTwits.
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