Stock futures rise ahead of Fed interest rate decision Sept. 2026

U.S. stock futures edged higher Wednesday as investors braced for a Federal Reserve interest rate decision widely expected to deliver the central bank’s first hike since 2023.

The S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%, with Nasdaq-100 futures climbing 0.4%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 77 points, a gain of 0.2%. The 10-year Treasury yield was hovering near 5%, and the 30-year stood at 5.374%.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders assigned 92.5% probability to a quarter-point hike at Wednesday’s 2 p.m. ET decision. Markets put the chances of another quarter-point increase at 45% for October and 30% for December. The current target rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%.

The anticipated move comes against a backdrop of stubborn inflation and rising energy costs. Annual CPI stood at 3.4% in August, retreating from a peak of 4.2% reached in May. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.4% as forecast, but core inflation, which strips out food and energy, came in at 0.3%, topping estimates. For the first time, U.S. diesel prices reached $6 per gallon on Friday, driven by supply constraints linked to the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran. Brent crude slid 0.7% to $107.92 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, dropped 1.2% to $104.55 per barrel.

Brent Wilsey, chief investment officer at San Diego-based Wilsey Asset Management, argued that a decision by the Fed to leave rates unchanged would pose substantial risks. “That could surprise stocks, and surprises are rarely received well in markets, and it could also damage the Fed’s credibility, and reignite concerns that the central bank is caving to political pressure to keep rates steady,” Wilsey said in an emailed note, according to CNBC. The Fed’s decision arrives amid pressure from the White House to leave rates unchanged.

Tuesday’s session ended in the red, with the S&P 500 off 0.45% and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.78%. The tech sector came under pressure after weekend conversations among leaders of major large language model firms raised the prospect of pulling back on how quickly new products reach market, according to CNBC.

Overseas, Asian markets were mixed on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.34%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.24% and South Korea’s Kospi added 0.12%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.18%. European stocks were broadly higher, with the regional Stoxx 600 up 0.4% and London’s FTSE 100 rising 0.4%.