September 23, 2026

[Post-3-Day Weekend TSE] Morning of US Tech Pullback: 5 Stocks Selected by AI and Thought Trace (2026/9/24)

Good morning, everyone!
This is the Investment Lab, developer and operator of “ALPHA FORGE,” an AI stock screening and continuous learning terminal for Japanese stocks.

Following the three-day weekend from Respect for the Aged Day to the Autumnal Equinox Day, the Tokyo market opens today for the first time in four days. Since overseas markets continued to move during the holiday, the biggest concern this morning is “how the TSE will react to that after the break.”
ALPHA FORGE finished its screening shortly after 6:30 AM this morning. We will honestly report how the AI interpreted the data from the holiday and where it decided to hit the brakes.

This Morning’s 3-Line Summary

The US market saw all three major indices pull back last night. The semiconductor index (SOX) fell 1.23%, with tech stocks showing notable declines.
The AI picked 3 medium-to-long-term and 3 short-term stocks (5 stocks excluding duplicates). 285A (Kioxia HD) was selected for both medium-to-long-term and short-term.
The AI’s confidence level is in the “medium” zone of 42-45% for all. The opinions of the four judges did not align, reflecting a cautious stance overall.

1. 🌍 Today’s Global Topics & Pre-Market Conditions

The TSE was closed for a three-day weekend on September 21 (Mon, Respect for the Aged Day), 22 (Tue, National Holiday), and 23 (Wed, Autumnal Equinox Day). Therefore, today’s AI picks are calculated based on the closing prices of the most recent business day, September 18 (Fri).

Meanwhile, the US market remained open during the holiday. Last night (September 23), the New York market saw all three major indices fall.

NY Dow: 51,511.59 (-0.68% from the previous day)
S&P 500: 7,706.03 (-0.75%)
Nasdaq Composite: 26,936.04 (-1.13%)
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX): 12,534.27 (-1.23%)

The declines were significant in the Nasdaq and SOX, marking a pullback centered on tech and semiconductor stocks. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.11% from the previous day (4.97%), and the dollar-yen is moving toward a weaker yen in the low 158 range. The VIX, which indicates market anxiety (we use it in our lab instead of the Nikkei VI), is at 15.18, which, while up, remains at a calm level.

Points of Interest After the Holiday

On September 18, the last day before the holiday, the Nikkei Stock Average closed significantly higher at 65,018.95 yen (+1.38%). The three semiconductor-related stocks included in today’s picks (4047, 285A, 6920) also all rose by nearly 8-10% that day.
How the TSE will price in the subsequent decline in US semiconductor stocks at the opening is the main focus today.

2. 📊 AI Model Cumulative Performance & Previous Day Pick Review

Our lab’s policy is to publish the ledger figures exactly as they are, including not only good results but also losses and unsettled trades.

Current Status of the Prediction Ledger (As of the morning of 2026/09/24)

You might be thinking, “Wait, only two?” This is due to the ALPHA FORGE result confirmation rules.
The AI’s picks are first evaluated on whether they could actually be purchased at the recommended buy price within three business days from the next business day, and then wins or losses are determined based on price movements after 1-3 business days for short-term, or 5, 20, or 60 business days for medium-to-long-term. Furthermore, to ensure that determinations are not skewed by holidays, we allow for significant leeway in calendar days before making a determination.
Since it has only been a short time since operations began (September 12) and a three-day weekend was included, only a very small portion of the picks have had their results finalized.

The 2 resolved items

5016 (JX Metals / Sept 13 short-term pick, bullish): 1 business day later +1.95% (Win)
7203 (Toyota Motor / Sept 13 short-term pick, neutral): 1 business day later -0.30%, 2 business days later +0.30%

With only two items, we are not yet at a stage where we can discuss win rates. As more results accumulate, we will update the number of items, win rate, and average profit/loss in this section.

Regarding the previous day’s picks

The picks for the long weekend (September 21 and 22) were based on the closing prices before the weekend. Since price movements will start from today, the result confirmation is yet to come.

3. 🤖 AI Model Thought Process & Today’s “Hesitations and Reflections (AI Growth Diary)”

The model used this morning is “baseline-2026-09-11”. The AI narrows down the stocks in the following order:

Collection: Gather stock prices, technical indicators, financial data, and news headlines
Four pillars of analysis: Score technical/trend/fundamental/news sentiment, each out of 100 points
Synthesis: Weight the four pillars to determine the overall score and direction (bullish, bearish, neutral)
Deep dive with language model: Articulate buying factors and risk factors
Bracket setting: Determine reasonable target prices and defense lines based on past price volatility (ATR)
Verification: Check the consistency of the three prices and the AI’s confidence level (accuracy) to decide whether to adopt

Behind the scenes of this season’s narrowing down

Medium-to-long-term: 30 candidates from top price movers, etc. → narrowed down to 12 stocks → 3 stocks adopted
Short-term: 20 candidates → narrowed down to 8 stocks → 3 stocks adopted

Stocks that did not make the cut in the final screening included 6627 (TeraProbe), 7826 (Furuya Metal), 7201 (Nissan Motor), 9501 (Tokyo Electric Power HD), and 7203 (Toyota Motor).
What was interesting was that the short-term candidate with the highest overall score was 1360 (Nikkei 225 Bear 2x ETF). Even so, it did not remain in the final picks.

🤖 Today’s AI’s “Hesitation and Reflections (AI Growth Diary)”

All 6 items this morning shared the same concern.

【The technical ‘buy signal’ is present. But the other judges aren’t nodding in agreement】

In all 6 cases, the MACD (an indicator measuring the momentum of price movements) golden cross, meaning the sign that “upward momentum has begun to emerge,” was lit.
However, the consensus among the four judges (Technical, Trend, Performance, and Material) was only 0.25 to 0.50. Among the technical indicators, many stocks had RSI and Bollinger Bands pointing in different directions.

As a result, the AI’s confidence level (accuracy) for all 6 items was 42-45%. This is a level that barely cleared the 40% adoption line.
Note that while there is a mechanism to adjust this confidence level based on past performance, because there is still little data for checking answers, the “raw score before adjustment” is currently displayed as is.

Instead of “jumping in because a signal appeared,” it is stepping on the brakes itself, saying “the signal is there, but other factors are not following.” That kind of caution was impressive for the AI this morning.

4. 📋 Today’s AI Pick List (Summary Table)

*Scores are calculated based on the closing price of Friday, September 18.
*”Judge Consensus” is the degree to which the four analyses point in the same direction (the closer to 1.00, the more aligned the opinions are).

5. 🔍 Thorough Explanation & Chart Analysis of Each Picked Stock

■285A | Kioxia Holdings (Medium-to-Long Term / Short Term / Bullish)

【Momentum is sufficient. However, a sense of overvaluation and the accumulation of margin buying are weights】
This is the only stock selected for both medium-to-long term and short term this morning. The MACD golden cross just appeared on September 18, and the technical score is 62. News sentiment is also “somewhat positive,” with headlines such as consideration of a US listing and the expansion of demand for AI-related memory standing out.
On the other hand, it is at a fairly overvalued level with a PER of 54x and a PBR of 12x. Furthermore, the balance of those buying on margin has swelled to about 20 times the balance of short selling (it was about 13 times the previous week) (as of September 11). The AI read this as “supply and demand that makes it easy for profit-taking selling to emerge later,” and kept the evaluation modest, stating, “I cannot have strong conviction, so I will position it as a probing buy.”
The decline in US semiconductor stocks during the long weekend is also a headwind for this stock.

■4047 | Kanto Denka Kogyo (Medium-to-Long Term / Bullish)

【The overall score is the top this morning. But the content is ‘bullish, close to wait-and-see’】
The overall score of 56.2 is the highest among the 6 items this morning, and the consensus of the 4 judges was 0.50, which was the most aligned among this morning’s items. The MACD golden cross appeared 7 trading days ago.
However, the trend is low at 20 points, and the PER is overvalued at the 35x level. The full-year earnings forecast is also unchanged, and no new material can be found. Furthermore, the ratio of margin buying to short selling balances has surged from about 13 times to about 34 times in one week (as of September 11).
Note that news headlines could not be obtained for this stock, and news sentiment is treated as neutral (50 points). The AI itself wrote in the risk column that “the reliability of the signal is limited,” and it is positioned as a smaller speculative entry.

■6920 | Lasertec (Medium-to-Long Term / Bullish)

【Earnings exceeded expectations, news is favorable. But technicals are weak】
This is the stock where the “judges were most divided” this morning. The full-year earnings for August exceeded company forecasts (an upward surprise of about 5% in operating profit and about 8% in earnings per share), and the news sentiment score was also high at 75 points. The machine learning model trained on past data also indicates a small upward direction.
However, the technical score is low at 29, and the RSI and Bollinger Bands are leaning bearish. The judge consensus was 0.25, the lowest figure among the 6 items this morning. There is also a sense of overvaluation with a PER of 45x and a PBR of 14x, and the AI emphasizes, “Keep positions modest.”

■9984 | SoftBank Group (Short Term / Bullish)

[Supported by a sense of undervaluation in earnings. However, the direction is unclear]
Fundamentals are rated at 80 points, the highest among this morning’s 6 selections. With a P/E ratio of 7.2x and an ROE of 32%, the figures indicate it is undervalued and has a high level of profitability. News sentiment is also leaning ‘positive,’ with headlines highlighting that investor demand is gathering for large-scale fundraising for AI investment being well-received.
On the other hand, the same fundraising story is also the flip side of concerns that ‘debt will swell significantly.’ Technical indicators are also conflicting, making it difficult to read the short-term direction, so the AI decided to ‘keep it to a modest bracket.’

■8001 | Itochu Corporation (Short-term / Bullish)

[Trend is among the strongest, short-term is slightly overheated]
The trend is rated at 90 points, outstanding among this morning’s 6 selections. Earnings are also stable with an ROE of 14.1% and a dividend yield of 1.91%.
However, the RSI is over 64, indicating it is slightly overheated, and it closed down -2.68% on September 18th. Earnings forecasts remain unchanged, and there is a lack of new material. The AI was modest here as well, suggesting an ‘entry to watch in the short term.’

6. ⚖️ 4-Analysis Radar Comparison

We have summarized the four pillars of analysis (Technical / Trend / Fundamental / News Sentiment) into a spider chart.

What the graph reveals

For 4047 and 285A (medium to long-term), both have a ‘vertically elongated diamond’ shape where the technicals point upward and the trend is indented at 20 points. This shape indicates that ‘momentum has begun to emerge, but it cannot yet be called an upward trend.’
6920 has a ‘horizontally elongated’ shape where news sentiment protrudes significantly and technicals are indented. The material and price movement are pointing in opposite directions.
For 9984, the fundamental pillar extends significantly downward, and for 8001, the trend pillar extends significantly to the right. Both are supported by a ‘single protruding pillar.’

This morning, there were no stocks where all four pillars were high and aligned. The fact that the AI’s confidence level remains at 42-45% is due to the shape of this graph itself.

7. 💌 A word to readers & requests for ‘Likes’ (hearts) and comments

Thank you for reading until the end!

On the morning after a long weekend, news accumulated during the break tends to be reflected in stock prices all at once, so price movements are often more volatile than usual. Just as the AI was stepping on the brakes itself, we should also try to watch the market opening calmly rather than making decisions just because ‘a signal appeared.’

If this report was even slightly helpful, please press the Like (heart mark), as it is a great encouragement for our daily analysis and development.
We are also waiting for your impressions and questions (about analysis methods) in the comments section, such as ‘The way this AI is hesitant is human-like’ or ‘I want to know how to look at this indicator.’

Well then, have a great day today!

8. 📝 Disclaimer

This article is reference information for introducing and verifying the process of market data analysis by the AI system developed by our lab, and it does not recommend or solicit the buying or selling of specific financial products or stocks.
Since the TSE was closed from September 21 to 23, 2026, the stock prices and various indicators for the AI picks in this article are based on the closing prices of the most recent business day (September 18, 2026). They may differ significantly from price movements after today’s opening.
The recommended buy price, stop-loss price, and sell price calculated by the AI are simulation guidelines and do not guarantee future investment results. Specific numerical values are masked in this note.
The AI’s accuracy (confidence level) includes raw scores before correction, as we are currently accumulating data for verification.
This tool (ALPHA FORGE) does not have any order linkage functions with securities companies, etc., and actual trading is conducted at the user’s own responsibility and judgment.
In accordance with the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (investment advisory regulations), we cannot respond to any requests for individual stock trading decisions or investment advice in the comments section or via messages.