NASDAQ stops falling despite 5.2% interest rates—Is the entire market 'no longer being sold'?
・Date: September 24, 2026 US Market
・Impact Level: ★★★☆☆
・Status: Continued interest rate hikes × Large-cap buybacks × Selective market
【① Today’s Conclusion】
In the US market on the 24th, the Dow fell for the third consecutive day to $51,349.98 (-0.31%), while the S&P 500 returned to the previous day’s level at 7,704.13 (-0.02%) and the NASDAQ at 26,939.37 (+0.01%).
What is important is that while interest rates have not stopped rising, the decline in stock prices has begun to stop. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose from 5.112% the previous day to 5.204%. WTI crude oil also rose to $94.61. Even so, the NASDAQ rebounded from an intraday low of about 0.85%.
The previous day’s “valuation compression due to rising interest rates” continues. However, the stock market’s reaction to the same headwind has changed. The current assessment is not a full-scale risk recovery, but rather a differentiation between large-cap stocks that can absorb selling and sectors that continue to bear the burden of interest rates.
【② Key Data】
The US 10-year Treasury yield was up 9.2bp from the previous day, WTI was up $2.45, and the VIX rose to 15.67. Despite the stock market’s resistance to falling, interest rates, crude oil, and caution indicators have not improved. NASDAQ closing prices are unified with the figures distributed by Kabutan.
【③ Capital Flow and Factors for Rise/Fall】
First, the selling pressure was generated by the rebound in crude oil and the rise in US Treasury yields. If high crude oil prices heighten inflation concerns and long-term interest rates remain high, it will continue to be a burden on growth stocks that have been highly valued for their future earnings.
On the other hand, stock prices resisted falling after reports emerged during trading that US and Iranian negotiators were discussing a phased agreement. What was priced in here was expectations for a relaxation of tensions, and it does not mean that high crude oil prices or high interest rates have actually been resolved.
Individually, Meta +4.50%, AMD +2.38%, and Alphabet A +1.34% were up, while NVIDIA was -0.41%, Microsoft -0.53%, and Oracle -3.47%. Even among AI-related stocks, directions are divided. MINKABU PRESS reported on Meta’s new device announcement and Oracle’s cost burden issues regarding data centers, respectively, making evaluations of investment recovery and costs as important as growth expectations.
Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, four sectors—communication, healthcare, energy, and finance—rose, while seven sectors fell. The structure is supported by energy, which benefits from high crude oil prices, and large-cap stocks with individual catalysts, and should still be distinguished from a broad recovery in buying.
【④ Estimated Market Participant Behavior】
Observed Facts
The S&P 500 opened at 7,666.99, with a low of 7,662.57, a high of 7,719.01, and a close of 7,704.13. Although it fell below the previous day’s close, it is a positive candle that rose 37.14 points from the opening price. While there was a rebound from the low, the buying did not continue until it clearly closed above the previous day’s close.
Estimated Behavior
We believe that after receiving selling pressure at the opening, buybacks and dip-buying entered, triggered by expectations of a relaxation of geopolitical risks. The NASDAQ’s rebound and the contrast in large-cap stocks are consistent with selective repurchasing of sold-off stocks rather than active investment in the index as a whole.
Estimated Intent
We see this as behavior that keeps risk exposure to the market as a whole suppressed while maintaining participation in areas with individual growth materials, rather than fully accepting interest rate risk. The ratio of trading entities or short-covering cannot be identified from the price alone.
Falsification Conditions
If the S&P 500 falls below 7,662.57 in the next trading session and cannot recover, the view that this positive candle represents sustainable demand will weaken. Conversely, if it exceeds 7,719.01 and the number of rising sectors increases, we will revise the view that it was merely a buyback.
【⑤ Today’s Biggest Discrepancy】
The biggest discrepancy today is that “the NASDAQ recovered to the previous day’s level even though interest rates and crude oil rose”.
The previous day, the NASDAQ fell more than 1% in response to rising interest rates. This time, it regained its losses even though interest rates rose further. It is possible that the market has begun to get used to bad news, but it can also be explained by the rise in individual stocks like Meta and the impact of the negotiation reports.
Therefore, it is too early to conclude that the market has already ‘priced in a 5.2% interest rate.’ What we should look at is not just the absolute level of interest rates, but the change in reaction regarding how much stock prices are sold off in response to additional interest rate hikes.
[⑥ Outlook and Assumed Scenario]
The central scenario is a selective market where large-cap stocks with strong individual catalysts support the index while the burden of interest rates remains. In the short term, we will use the S&P 500’s 24th range as a benchmark to confirm whether the buying back continues into the next trading day.
Medium-term: Convergence of divergence (Hypothesis)
For stock price resilience to persist, we need either a stabilization of interest rates and oil prices, or a spread of buying accompanied by conviction in corporate earnings. If these do not occur and only interest rates continue to rise, the risk remains that price gaps will be adjusted through declines in leading stocks. If the number of rising sectors increases while stock prices maintain their highs, we will evaluate this as a convergence in the direction of absorbing the interest rate burden.
[⑦ Effective Decision-making Policy]
💼 Existing Holders
It is important not to substitute the relative strength of your holdings with just the NASDAQ’s slight gains. Since reactions are divided between Meta/AMD and NVIDIA/Oracle, we will inspect individual catalysts, earnings outlooks, and investment burdens. For stocks that cannot recover even while the index is rebounding, this is a phase to reconfirm whether the reasons for holding them are still valid.
🌱 New Investors
Do not assume a bottom based solely on the rebound on the 24th; instead, confirm whether the market raises its lows on the next day’s pullback or if the internal market follows the new highs. Distinguish between looking for stocks that are strong despite high interest rates and judging that interest rate risk has disappeared.
[⑧ Hypothesis Update]
We maintain the previous day’s hypothesis: ‘AI expectations continue × interest rates rise again = corporate/stock selection phase.’ The fact added this time is that the index’s sensitivity to declines in response to additional interest rate hikes has decreased on a daily basis.
The updated hypothesis is: ‘Interest rate constraints continue, but individual catalysts and buying back are partially absorbing the impact on the index.’ Hypothesis confidence: Medium. The resistance to falling and the variation among sectors are supporting factors, but the continuity is only for one day so far. If we can confirm the next high and the spread of buying, we will raise the confidence level.
[⑨ Tomorrow’s Focus Points]
・Can the NASDAQ withstand additional rises from the US 10-year Treasury yield of 5.204%?
・Will WTI at $94.61 and reports of US-Iran talks lead to an actual decline in oil?
・The position of the closing price relative to the S&P 500’s 7,662.57–7,719.01 range
・Will buying spread from the 4 rising sectors?
・Will the strength of Meta and AMD continue and spread to NVIDIA and others?
The most important thing is whether the state of not falling even when bad news remains will continue. To judge that we have moved from a one-off buyback to a change in evaluation criteria, we will confirm by aligning price, time, and internal market factors.
Benchmark: September 24, 2026 US Market Close
Acquisition/Revision: September 25, 2026 JST (After US market close)
Main Sources: Kabutan US Market Data, DZH/OANDA, MINKABU PRESS, Yahoo! Finance/OHLC Data
※ This report analyzes market structure by separating facts, estimates, and hypotheses based on public information and does not solicit the buying or selling of specific financial products. Prices, probabilities, and hypotheses do not guarantee future results.