[US Stocks] US 10-year Treasury yield rises to levels not seen since 2007, fueling expectations for additional rate hikes; Dow falls for the third consecutive day but limits …

The US stock market on September 24 saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall for the third consecutive day, weighed down by a further sharp rise in long-term US interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to levels not seen since 2007, and the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2004, making the pressure on stock prices from the bond market clear. With a series of hawkish remarks from Fed officials and the probability of an additional rate hike in October being priced in at about 70%, selling spread, particularly in interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities and materials.

On the other hand, when it was reported during trading hours that the US and Iran were proceeding with talks aimed at a phased end to hostilities, major indices rapidly reduced their losses due to expectations of a retreat in the risk of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 was bought back to near its previous day’s closing price and finished almost flat, while the Nasdaq secured a small gain supported by a sharp rise in Meta Platforms. Although the momentum from the beginning of the week, which had maintained a strong tone, was lost, it also showed resilience near all-time highs.

📊 Market Summary (2026/09/24 Closing Price)

NY Dow: 51,349.98 (Change from previous day -161.61 / -0.31%)
S&P 500: 7,704.13 (Change from previous day -1.90 / -0.02%)
Nasdaq: 26,939.37 (Change from previous day +3.34 / +0.01%)
Russell 2000: 2,835.57 (Change from previous day -3.09 / -0.11%)
10-year Treasury yield: 5.162
USD/JPY: 158.855

⚠️ Risk Indicators

VIX: 15.67
HYG: 77.89
KRE: 70.94
PCR: 0.80 (Total)
Fear&Greed: 36

Key Market Trends:

❌️ Bearish Factors

❌️ Sharp rise in US long-term interest rates and growing expectations for additional rate hikes
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to the 5.16% level, briefly hitting the low 5.2% range, which was the highest since June 2007. The 30-year Treasury yield also reached its highest level since 2004. The President of the New York Fed stated that an additional rate hike this year is a “reasonable view,” and the President of the Philadelphia Fed also mentioned the need for gradual additional tightening. Following the rate hike decision at last week’s FOMC, the probability of an additional rate hike in October surged from about 55% a week ago to about 71%.

❌️ Robust economic indicators leading to “good news is bad news”
Weekly initial jobless claims announced on this day were 197,000, lower than market expectations, once again showing the robustness of the labor market. Combined with the strength of the manufacturing and service sector PMIs from the previous day, the structure continued where economic resilience acts as a headwind for stock prices through inflation concerns and rising interest rates. Concerns about the impact on housing and corporate borrowing also spread, and interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities (-1.02%) and materials (-1.01%) were sold.

❌️ Escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices
It was reported that Iranian officials mentioned the possibility of the conflict expanding to the Indian Ocean, and crude oil prices surged due to the resurgence of geopolitical risk. Brent crude rose more than 3% to top $106 per barrel, and WTI also closed in the $94 range. The view that rising fuel costs would further pressure the inflation path triggered a chain reaction of bond selling and stock price declines. Individually, Oracle fell on reports regarding a data center project, and MGM Resorts plunged about 11% following the withdrawal of a buyout proposal, making negative individual factors stand out.

⭕️ Bullish Factors

⭕️ Reports of phased agreement talks between the US and Iran
It was reported that US and Iranian negotiators in New York were exploring a path to a phased end to hostilities, with the core being the opening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and the lifting of economic blockades by the US. Following this, crude oil prices reduced their gains, and major indices were consistently bought back from their intraday lows. The S&P 500 recovered from a decline of over 0.5% to almost its previous day’s closing level.

⭕️ Meta’s sharp rise and the resilience of large-cap technology stocks
Meta Platforms rose sharply by 4.50% as the small AI device and personal AI agent announced at its annual developer conference were well received. The communication services sector was notably strong by sector at +1.92%, and the so-called “Magnificent 7” related ETFs also outperformed the overall market. With M&A speculation as a factor, GoDaddy rose 4.6%, and AI infrastructure-related Nebius also rose over 6% following an upward revision of earnings forecasts by a securities firm, continuing the search for AI investment themes.

⭕️ US-China summit and extension of trade truce
A meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping was held at the White House, with trade, AI, and the situation in Iran on the agenda. In addition, the US-China tariff truce, which was scheduled to expire in November, was extended by two months until January 10, and the continuation of rare earth supplies was also confirmed. A partial retreat in uncertainty surrounding trade policy became a supporting factor for risk appetite.

Future Outlook:

Market focus is concentrated on the trends of US long-term interest rates. We have entered a phase where whether the 10-year Treasury yield establishes itself in the 5% range will influence the housing market, corporate financing, and overall stock valuations, and price and consumption-related indicators announced toward the end of the month and remarks by Fed officials could shake interest rate expectations. With an additional rate hike at the October FOMC priced in at about 70%, attention is focused on whether the “good news is bad news” environment, where the strength of indicators acts as a weight on stock prices, will continue.

Geopolitically, the degree of progress in US-Iran talks and crude oil prices will be the biggest variables influencing the chain of inflation and interest rates. If a concrete agreement toward opening the Strait of Hormuz is reached, a reversal of the rise in crude oil prices is expected, while a stagnation in negotiations could invite risk-off sentiment originating from energy. The results of the US-China summit and large-scale AI-related investments and earnings trends will also be factors that determine the direction of market selection. Regarding risk indicators, the USD/JPY has shifted toward a weaker yen, and Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has also reached its highest level in 30 years, so it can be said that this is a phase where caution is still required regarding the ripple effects of global interest rate hikes.

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