When Will Nvidia Stock Go Down? Here’s What Could Trigger It

When will Nvidia stock go down? Nobody can name an exact date, since the share price moves with market forces and real-time economic data. Traders can still track the triggers, such as slowing AI growth, big customers building their own chips, supply shortages, export restrictions and a broad market sell-off. At the time of writing, NVDA sits at $225.07, based on the September 25 close. The Nvidia stock forecast on Wall Street is still bullish, and the average price target sits at $328.66. The risks are real, though, and they have kept the Nvidia stock 2026 rally modest so far.

When Will Nvidia Stock Go Down? Risks, Forecast And Price Targets

When will NVDA go down if the business keeps growing like this? Nvidia reported revenue of $96.2 billion for the second quarter of fiscal 2027, up 106% from a year ago.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated in the Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings release:

“AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work.”

The share price hasn’t really kept up, though. The 2026 gain stands at roughly 18% year-to-date, as fears of an AI bubble still hang over the market. The answer lies less in earnings and more in what happens around the company.

Supply Limits And Customers Building Their Own Chips

When will Nvidia stock go down because of supply? It’s hard to call, but supply is one of the less obvious NVDA stock risks. Management forecast growth of about 70% for fiscal 2028 and tied that number to available supply, with CFO Colette Kress naming memory scarcity as the biggest bottleneck.

Jensen Huang said this on the August 26 earnings call:

“Our demand is much greater than 70%.”

The bigger long-term threat comes from customers, as Google, Amazon and Meta develop more chips in-house. When will the stock go down on that front? Probably once those big buyers lean a lot less on Nvidia’s GPUs.

Taiwan, Export Rules And Market Shocks

TSMC makes Nvidia’s most advanced processors, and much of that production sits in Taiwan, so a disruption there could hit the stock hard. Export restrictions and trade policies also limit international chip sales. NVDA is also a pretty volatile stock, with annualized volatility of around 41.9%. When will NVDA stock go down in a market-wide sell-off? Most likely fast, and risks like this one sit outside the company’s control.

What Analysts Expect From The NVDA Stock Price Target

The Nvidia stock forecast leans heavily bullish right now. S&P Global surveyed 61 analysts, and together they give NVDA a Strong Buy consensus. The average Nvidia stock price target is $328.66, about 46% above the current price. The lowest Nvidia stock price target, $180, also shows how far the shares could slide if AI spending cools off. When will Nvidia stock go down to that level? Only the most bearish call on Wall Street points that low.

Jensen Huang had this to say about AI spending:

“The AI infrastructure buildout is at full steam.”

Also Read: Nvidia vs. SpaceX: Which AI Stock Has More Potential?

So, when will Nvidia stock go down? Based on the current Nvidia stock forecast, weak results don’t look like the trigger. The Nvidia stock 2026 outlook depends much more on supply limits, in-house customer chips, a Taiwan shock or a broad market sell-off.