First interest rate hike in three years, and it was unanimous—the Fed did not say “this is the end”
Conclusion: It is highly likely that interest rate hikes are not over yet
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its policy interest rate by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00%. This was the first rate hike in about three years, and the vote was a unanimous 12–0. To put it briefly, it is highly likely that this is not the end of the rate hikes. Out of the 18 participants who provided forecasts, 16 expect further rate hikes. The impact is already beginning to appear in U.S. mortgage rates and the Japanese yen exchange rate.
Why was there a rate hike now?
The reason is that prices are not falling as much as expected. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) for August, announced on September 11, was 3.4% year-on-year overall. Rising energy prices, such as gasoline, pushed up the overall figure. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.2%. One factor is considered to be the renewed strength in housing costs. Housing costs, such as rent, do not easily fall once they have risen.
At the July meeting, three regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents had cast dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike. This time, everyone was in agreement with that opinion.
The answer to “Will it go up again?”
Chair Warsh, who moved interest rates for the first time since taking office, said at the press conference that “inflation is too high and has been for too long.” Regarding this rate hike, he described it as “removing some of the accommodation” rather than tightening. The implication is that it is not yet enough.
The median of the participants’ interest rate forecasts (dot plot) is 4.1% at the end of 2026. This calculates to one more rate hike within the year from the current level. The 2026 inflation forecast (PCE) was revised upward to 3.7%, and the unemployment rate forecast was lowered to 4.1%. Because the economy is solid, it is easy to continue raising interest rates.
The impact on our lives
First, U.S. mortgages. As of September 24, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.03%, exceeding 7% for the first time since January 2025. A year ago, it was 6.30%. If you borrow $400,000 over 30 years, your monthly repayment will increase by approximately $190, or about 30,000 yen.
In Japan, two days after the FOMC, the Bank of Japan also raised its policy interest rate to 1.25% on September 18. This is the highest level in about 31 years. Even so, the yen did not strengthen, and the dollar-yen exchange rate temporarily weakened to the 158 yen level. Afterward, it was reported that the authorities conducted a “rate check” to confirm market levels, and it returned to the 156 yen range.
For Japanese households, this is a phase where two burdens are likely to overlap: the rise in variable mortgage interest rates and the increase in the price of imported goods due to the weak yen. Those who have borrowed with a variable interest rate should check when their next interest rate review is scheduled.
In terms of investment, gold fell from around $4,350 per ounce to around $4,281 immediately after the announcement. When interest rates rise, gold, which does not generate interest, is easily sold off.
Two dates to watch next
The first is the September CPI, which will be announced on October 14 (at 21:30 Japan time). If price growth continues, the view for additional rate hikes will strengthen further. The second is the FOMC on October 27–28. The battle, which was a toss-up in August, was settled once by the rate hike. The real question has now shifted to how many more times this will continue.
Source
FRB | FOMC Statement (September 16, 2026): https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
FRB | Summary of Economic Projections (SEP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm
OANDA Securities | September FOMC Review: https://www.oanda.jp/lab-education/market_news/fomc-sep-2026-review/
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) | CPI August 2026: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
BLS | Release Schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched_list.htm
OANDA Securities | August U.S. CPI Review: https://www.oanda.jp/lab-education/market_news/uscpi-2026-aug-review/
Freddie Mac | PMMS: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
OANDA Securities | BOJ September Meeting Review: https://www.oanda.jp/lab-education/market_news/boj-2026-sep-review/
Gaitame.com | Dollar-Yen Outlook September 21: https://www.gaitame.com/media/entry/2026/09/21/130247
#Fed #RateHike #FOMC #USInterestRates #MortgageRates #BOJ #WeakYen #Investment
English Summary
First Hike in Three Years, and Unanimous: The Fed Didn’t Say “That’s It”
On September 16, the Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25 points to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike since July 2023, in a 12-0 vote. More hikes look likely: 16 of 18 officials expect further increases. Hotter-than-expected core CPI, driven partly by shelter costs, tipped the balance, and Chair Warsh said inflation “is too high and has been for too long.” U.S. 30-year mortgage rates topped 7% for the first time since January 2025. The Bank of Japan also hiked to 1.25% two days later, yet the yen weakened to the 158 level. Key dates ahead: September CPI on October 14 and the FOMC on October 27-28.
Korean summary
On September 16, the Federal Reserve decided to raise the policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75–4.00%. This is the first increase in about three years since July 2023, and it was a unanimous 12–0 vote. With 16 out of 18 members expecting further hikes, it is highly likely that the interest rate increases are not yet over. The decisive factor was that core CPI, centered on housing costs, exceeded expectations, and Chair Powell stated, “Inflation has been too high and has persisted for too long.” The U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate exceeded 7% for the first time since January 2025. The Bank of Japan also raised its rate to 1.25% two days later, but the yen briefly weakened to the 158 yen per dollar range. The next key events to watch are the release of the September CPI on October 14 and the FOMC meeting on October 27–28.