MARKETS LIVE: Wall Street falls as oil jumps

2:35pm: Market movers

• NextSource Materials Inc. (TSX:NEXT, OTCQB:NSRCF) has secured a US$30 million investment from Hanwa and JOGMEC for a 15% stake in its battery anode facility in Abu Dhabi.

• Reconnaissance Energy Africa Ltd (TSX-V:RECO, OTCQX:RECAF, FRA:0XD) said flow test samples from its Kavango West 1X Sidetrack well in Namibia indicate a thermogenic gas system with liquids potential.

• Kodiak Sciences saw its shares surge after Zenkuda and tabirafusp-ted met their primary endpoints in the Phase III DAYBREAK trial for wet age-related macular degeneration.

• IonQ received a Buy rating and $60 price target from Bank of America, which cited its semiconductor-based approach as a potential advantage in scaling quantum computing systems.

• MongoDB Inc (NASDAQ:MDB) shares fell after CEO Chirantan Desai left to lead a new Meta business focused on bringing AI tools to corporate customers, with Dev Ittycheria appointed interim CEO.

• Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, XETRA:NVD) authorized an additional $150 billion in share repurchases, lifting the remaining amount under its existing buyback program to $235 billion through fiscal 2028.

• Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META, XETRA:FB2A, SIX:FB) has launched Meta Enterprise Platform, offering businesses and developers access to AI tools including Muse Agent, Meta Business Agent, Muse API and Muse Code.

• Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW) plans to raise $3.5 billion through convertible senior notes due in 2029 and 2031 while pursuing transactions designed to reduce potential dilution.

1:30pm: Nvidia’s record buyback

Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, XETRA:NVD) (Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, XETRA:NVD), Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, XETRA:NVD)) has authorized an additional $150 billion in share repurchases, raising the remaining amount available under the company’s existing buyback program to $235 billion.

The company expects to execute the entire remaining $235 billion program through fiscal year 2028, covering both the newly approved increase and the previously authorized balance.

The $150 billion addition marks the largest increase in a share repurchase authorization in history.

The increase adds to $85 billion in previously authorized share repurchases, bringing the remaining program to more than twice its size before the board’s latest decision.

12:00pm ET: FTSE dips

The FTSE 100 headed back into the red by the end of Monday’s trading, ending the day at 10,685 points for a loss of 0.1%.

“Today’s session has been one of those demonstrations of stock index weighting,” said IG’s Chris Beauchamp.

“While all the news is on the surge in housebuilders following the weekend pledge to help first time buyers, the real meat of the index’s move has come from Shell and HSBC, the former gaining due to oil’s surge and the latter off hopes of more congenial US-China relations. By contrast, Barratt is adding just 2 points, despite its impressive showing today. Such is the unfairness of life.”

11:00am ET: Week ahead on Wall Street

US stocks face a busy week of economic data, with investors focused on the labor market, inflation and Federal Reserve commentary. The September jobs report on Friday is expected to show 60,000 payroll gains, down sharply from August’s 162,000 increase, while unemployment is forecast to hold at 4.1%. ADP payrolls and weekly jobless claims will provide additional labor-market signals.

Wednesday’s GDP update will include the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ annual benchmark revisions, potentially reshaping the picture of US growth since 2021. August personal income, spending and core PCE inflation data will also be released.

Several Fed officials are due to speak, including New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Lisa Cook. Markets will watch for clues on the path for interest rates following the recent rise in Treasury yields.

10:00 am ET: US stocks down

Wall Street opened lower on Monday as higher oil prices fuelled inflation concerns and pushed Treasury yields higher after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to end the conflict.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 180.1p, or 0.4%, to 51,648.48 at the open, while the S&P 500 dropped 21.7p, or 0.3%, to 7,721.70.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 133p, or 0.5%, to 26,935.762 at the opening bell.

Wall Street had ended last week higher, led by gains in technology and technology-related stocks.

US tech stocks are in the news on Monday.

OpenAI has halted training and evaluation of its latest artificial intelligence (AI) models, putting technology stocks in focus after tests reportedly uncovered unexpected behaviour by autonomous AI agents on federal government websites.

The pause has prompted internal safety reviews as the company assesses the incidents and their implications for the development of its next-generation models.

Nvidia unveiled its Open Agent Safety Platform, designed to prevent incidents such as the one in which OpenAI models accessed Hugging Face.

Reuters reports Seligman Investments is expanding its venture arm after less than a year, doubling its capital to $1 billion as it targets companies addressing the infrastructure constraints created by the rapid growth of AI.

Seligman Ventures launched in February 2026 with $500 million and has invested more than $300 million across 14 companies focused on AI hardware, connectivity and cybersecurity.

SpaceX launched its next-generation Starship rocket from Texas on Monday, beginning a test flight aimed at reaching orbit and deploying satellites for the first time as the company prepares for regular missions later this year.

The US Central Command rejected Iran’s claim that it has “full control” of the Strait of Hormuz, calling the assertion false and saying US forces had destroyed Iran’s navy.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said separately that enemy forces had been driven towards the Arabian Sea and would soon be removed from the area.

Interest rates will remain in focus this week as investors await several key economic indicators, including the August personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, on Wednesday.

US manufacturing data is due on Thursday, followed by the closely watched September jobs report on Friday.

Brent crude futures rose 2.3% as tensions between the US and Iran escalated after President Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s conditional seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over disruption to oil supplies through the key shipping route.

The five-year Treasury yield was around 5.04% on Monday, according to market data.

Iran’s rial fell to a record low of 2.3 million against the dollar as annual inflation reached 61.4%, while tighter US sanctions added pressure to the economy.

The FTSE 100 started strongly, gaining 43p at 9.15am, but the advance moderated through the morning before recovering slightly to 43.64p at 2pm, with the latest gain standing at 24.97p to 10,720.

The FTSE 250 showed a similar pattern but remained stronger overall, surging 243p at the open before easing to gains of 166 to 187p through the morning and early afternoon, with the latest advance at 154.74p to 24,417.

The stronger performance by the FTSE 250 reflects the broad rally in domestically focused stocks, particularly housebuilders and suppliers, following the proposed first-time-buyer equity-loan scheme.

UK shares extended their gains, led by housebuilders after the government unveiled a state-backed equity loan scheme for first-time buyers, while Chancellor John Healey pledged fiscal discipline at the Labour conference ahead of next month’s budget.

The UK economy faced mounting pressure on Monday as rising energy costs added to concerns over the outlook ahead of the next Budget.

Diesel prices reached a record 199.18p a litre, according to the RAC, highlighting the latest squeeze on households and businesses from higher energy costs.

The motoring group said the increase showed how exposed the UK economy remains to geopolitical events and disruptions beyond its borders.

Barratt Redrow led the risers, gaining 38p, followed by Howden Joinery, up 34p, and Kingfisher, which added over 9p.

Marks & Spencer rose almost 8p, while Admiral Group gained 72p, and Spirax Group added 135p.

Fresnillo was the biggest faller, dropping 160p, followed by Endeavour Mining, down 211p, Sage, which fell over 27p, and Antofagasta, down 92p.

Inflation expectations in Britain rose in September, with expectations for price growth over the next 12 months increasing to 4.5% from 3.9% in August, according to a Citi and YouGov survey.

Longer-term inflation expectations also rose, reaching 4.3% from 4.1% a month earlier, reports Reuters.

9:00 am ET: US futures weak

US stock futures point to a weaker Wall Street open, with Dow Jones futures down 275p, or 1%, S&P 500 futures 27p, or less than 1%, lower and Nasdaq 100 futures down 173p, or 1%.

The broader declines suggest cautious sentiment, while the sharper move in Nasdaq futures indicates greater pressure on technology and growth stocks.

The futures point to a risk-off tone at the start of trading.

Two-year Treasury yields, which are highly sensitive to expectations for interest rates and inflation, have risen 56 basis points in September.

Reuters says this has put them on track for their biggest monthly increase since February 2023 amid expectations of a wave of Fed rate hikes.

The gap between two-year and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields has narrowed to about 30 basis points from 40 basis points a month ago, a move known as a flattening of the yield curve.

The FTSE 100 was 43.64 p, or 0.4%, higher at 10,738.89, while the FTSE 250 gained 181.03 p, or 0.8%, to 24,442.17, indicating broader gains across UK equities.

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1:00 pm BST: US futures down

All three main US index futures are lower, with the Nasdaq 100 weakest.

Futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones fell 0.4%, 0.8% and 0.5% on Monday to 7,768.75, 30,639 and 51,890 after talks between the United States and Iran stalled.

Nvidia, the artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker, authorised an extra $150 billion on Monday for its share buyback programme, taking the total to $235 billion, reports CNBC.

The company described the increase as the largest in a share repurchase authorisation in history.

The move comes amid record spending on AI.

Oil prices are up after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the key shipping route, stoking inflation fears.

Bets on a Federal Reserve rate rise in October jumped to nearly 70%, while US Treasury yields reached multi-decade highs, which typically weighs on technology stocks.

Traders await US economic data this week.

Oil prices rose above $108 a barrel on Monday.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at $108.64 at midday.

The rise came as UK diesel prices reached a record high, surpassing the previous peak set after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The average price of a litre of diesel reached a record 199.18p on Monday, according to the RAC, the motoring organisation.

The price has risen 56.8p from 142.38p on 28 February, when the war between the United States and Iran began.

The previous record was 199.09p per litre, set in June 2022.

Gold is trading at $4,151.43 an ounce, down $126.35 or 2.95% on Monday.

Stalled negotiations between the US and Iran kept oil prices high and reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening to curb inflation.

A stronger dollar, rising bond yields and growing expectations of another rate rise are all pressuring gold.

The immediate trigger, however, was President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran said it would not soften its conditions.

The FTSE 100 rose 26.59p or 0.23% to 10,719.99 on Monday afternoon, while the FTSE 250, the index of mid-sized companies with a more domestic focus, gained 187.46p or 0.76% to 24,446.22.

12 noon BST: Not much change in broader European markets

The FTSE 100 was 19.68p, or 0.2%, higher at 10,714.93, with its gain narrowing from earlier, while the FTSE 250 was 37.43p, or 0.2%, lower at 25,371.21 after earlier gains.

The broader European market was little changed, with the DAX up 2.08 points, or 0.03%, at 8,079.88, while the CAC 40 gained 0.28 points, or 0.04%, to 638.93.

US stock futures are pointing to a weaker Wall Street open, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.0%, S&P 500 futures down 0.5% and Dow Jones futures down 0.5%.

The weakness comes as renewed uncertainty over the Middle East has pushed oil higher, while markets prepare for a week of important US inflation and jobs data.

Reuters reported that Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden said on Monday that markets had responded well to the central bank’s decision to set out a long-term plan to reduce its bond holdings, slightly lowering borrowing costs.

Sterling rebounded from multi-month lows against the dollar and euro on Monday as investors priced in tighter Bank of England policy amid persistent inflation pressures.

The pound was up 0.1% at $1.3259, recovering from a three-month low of $1.3204 last week, but remained on track for a more than 2% monthly fall.

11:00 am BST: London indices continue north

The FTSE 100 was over 22 points, or 0.2%, higher at 10,718.13 mid-morning Monday, while the FTSE 250 gained over 166 points, or 0.7%, to 24,428.11.

The stronger performance from the FTSE 250 points to broader gains across the UK market, with mid-cap shares leading the advance.

Small-cap round-up

Rockfire Resources PLC (LSE:ROCK), the mineral exploration company, said investment accelerated in the first half as it increased drilling and development work at its Molaoi zinc-germanium-silver-lead project in Greece, with a pre-feasibility study scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 2027.

Zephyr Energy PLC (AIM:ZPHR, OTCQB:ZPHRF, FRA:VD5N), the oil and gas company, swung into profit in the first half of 2026 as higher production from its non-operated US portfolio increased revenue, while work continued towards first commercial production at its Paradox project in Utah.

Rainbow Rare Earths Ltd (LSE:RBW, OTC:RBWRF, FRA:RR1), the rare earths company, discussed its partnership with Neo Performance Materials, progress at its Phalaborwa project and plans that could support a potential US IPO, with chief executive George Bennett and technical director Dave Dodd outlining the technical work and Neo’s contribution to the project’s flowsheet.

Tower Resources PLC (AIM:TRP, FRA:ULF1), the oil and gas company, said it expects to spud its NJOM-3 appraisal well offshore Cameroon in early 2027, as government approvals for the extension of its Thali licence and farm-out to Prime Global Energies move towards formal completion.

Emmerson Resources Ltd (ASX:ERM, OTC:EMMRF), the potash development company, said its US$1.215 billion damages claim against Morocco is expected to move into its next phase in January, with the tribunal setting a July 2028 hearing over the Khemisset Potash project.

Poolbeg Pharma PLC (AIM:POLB), the clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, has dosed eight patients in its TOPICAL trial, which is testing whether POLB 001 can prevent a serious side effect of cancer immunotherapy.

The trial is expected to recruit about 30 patients in total, with the first patient dosed in July.

10.30 am BST: Barratt Redrow leads housing rally

Barratt Redrow remained the FTSE 100’s standout performer, rising 12.8% to 348.5p after touching 353.7p earlier as investors welcomed the proposed first-time-buyer equity-loan scheme.

Howden Joinery gained 5.4%, and B&Q owner Kingfisher added 2.9%, showing that the buying had spread beyond housebuilders to suppliers and home-improvement retailers.

The FTSE 100 was 23 points, or 0.2%, higher at 10,719, easing from 10,739 at 9.15am as mining losses restrained the advance.

Fresnillo slumped 6.8%, Endeavour Mining dropped 5.8%, Antofagasta lost 3.2% and Anglo American fell 3%.

The domestically focused FTSE 250 outperformed with a 0.7% rise to 24,426, while AIM slipped 0.1%.

9.15 am BST: Domestic shares outperform as miners retreat

The FTSE 250 surged 1%, or 243 points, to 24,504 as the proposed first-time-buyer equity-loan scheme triggered a broad rally across housebuilders and their suppliers.

Persimmon climbed 14.5%, Taylor Wimpey advanced 13.6%, Bellway gained 13.5% and Vistry Group rose 13.4%.

The buying extended beyond developers. Pipe and ventilation systems manufacturer Genuit Group jumped 11.8%, builders’ merchant Travis Perkins (LSE:TPK) gained 10%, construction materials supplier Breedon Group rose 8.8% and Grafton Group added 6%.

The FTSE 100 gained 43 points, or 0.4%, to 10,739. Barratt Redrow remained its strongest performer, up 14.5% at 353.7p, while Howden Joinery advanced 5.9% and B&Q owner Kingfisher rose 4%.

The gains were partially offset by a sharp precious-metals sell-off following gold’s overnight decline. Fresnillo fell 5.1% and Endeavour Mining lost 4.6%, while FTSE 250-listed Hochschild Mining and Pan African Resources dropped 5.9% and 5.4% respectively.

Diversified miners also weakened, with Antofagasta down 2.9%, Anglo American off 2.4%, Glencore losing 2.1% and Rio Tinto declining 1.7%.

The AIM All-Share was broadly unchanged.

8.15 am BST: Housing stimulus hopes lift London at the open

London shares opened higher on Monday, with the FTSE 100 gaining 21 points, or 0.2%, to 10,717. The FTSE 250 outperformed, adding 105 points to 24,366.

Barratt Redrow led the blue-chip risers with a 13.2% surge to 349.9p after the government said it would confirm a new equity-loan programme for first-time buyers in next month’s Budget.

Housing-linked shares followed, with Howden Joinery up 4.3% and Kingfisher gaining 4%. Marks and Spencer rose 1.8%, while JD Sports added 1.6%.

Mining weakness limited the wider market’s advance after gold fell sharply overnight. Fresnillo declined 4.5%, Endeavour Mining lost 3.8%, Antofagasta fell 2.8% and Anglo American retreated 2.6%.

Centrica and SSE provided additional support, rising 2.7% and 1.8% respectively.

7.00 am BST: Oil rebound sets the tone for London

The FTSE 100 is expected to begin the new week on the front foot, with the December contract up 29 points at 10,779.5 shortly after 7 am.

London’s cash index finished Friday 15 points higher at 10,695.25, completing a second consecutive weekly advance as gains among banks and miners offset weakness in oil producers.

Wall Street provided a positive lead after lower oil prices helped US stocks secure their first winning week in three. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.9% to 51,829, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each gained 0.5%, closing at 7,743 and 27,069 respectively.

Asian markets were mixed on Monday as renewed strength in oil and elevated bond yields weighed on technology shares. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.3% and mainland China’s Shanghai Composite fell 1.7%, while Japan’s Nikkei was broadly flat.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng bucked the weaker trend with a 0.7% rise. Australia’s ASX 200 closed 0.3%, or 28 points, higher at 8,693.

Oil prices rebounded after Washington rejected an Iranian proposal intended to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude advanced 1.5% to $98.92 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $94.05.

Precious metals moved sharply in the opposite direction as the stronger dollar and elevated bond yields reduced their appeal. Gold fell 2.5% to $4,211.37 an ounce and silver dropped 4.1% to $62.12. Copper gained 1.5%, while natural gas declined 3.5%.

Sterling was little changed near US$1.324, while Bitcoin fell 1.6% to around US$83,200.

The UK corporate calendar is relatively quiet, with Lords Group Trading scheduled to publish half-year results. Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill is due to chair a panel in London this afternoon, while final UK second-quarter GDP figures arrive on Wednesday.