Social Security COLA could be largest in 4 years: Is it enough?
Tens of millions of Social Security recipients are on track for their biggest yearly increase in four years. But that’s not necessarily good news.
The Social Security Administration is set to announce the 2027 cost of living adjustment on Oct. 14 following the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of September’s Consumer Price Index, or CPI – the last piece needed to determine the average yearly change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The COLA is determined by comparing the average CPI-W for July, August and September of the current year to the same three months the prior year.
The latest forecast from the advocacy group The Senior Citizen League puts 2027’s COLA at 3.5%, the highest level in four years. The figure is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s TSCL prediction but well above the 2.8% COLA for 2026 and the 2.5% adjustment in 2025.
If the prediction holds, the average Social Security benefit would increase by $67.90 a month. The current average beneficiary receives $1,940 in their monthly Social Security check. With a 3.5 percent COLA, that would rise to $2,007.
The higher COLA comes with a catch. The increase is driven by higher costs and rising inflation that erodes much of the increase seniors will receive.
“No matter if the COLA announcement comes in slightly higher or slightly lower than our prediction, seniors will probably end up disappointed in the long run,” TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said. “The reality is that older Americans allocate their budgets differently than people still in the workforce, so inflation hits them differently. The CPI-W captures the experience of urban wage earners, which doesn’t represent the average senior’s budget.”
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How 2027’s COLA could stack up
TSCL’s predicted 2027 COLA would rank 19th among the increases implemented since 1977, the first year Social Security began calculating the annual boost.
The last COLA, announced in 2025 and implemented in 2026, tied for 27th.
The highest COLA on record was 14.3% in 1980, followed by 11.2% in 1981 and 9.9% in 1979. By law, benefits cannot decrease, but if inflation is flat, no COLA is implemented. No COLA was issued in 2010, 2011 or 2016.
MORE BY LEADA GORE