Bitcoin ETFs Post 2026's Strongest Weekly Inflows as Markets Turn to October Rate, Inflation and Liquidity Risks

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U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs registered record weekly inflows and institutional demand countered rising rate-hike expectations and regulatory pressures last week. Here’s Bitfire Research’s latest assessment:

Bitcoin entered a notable split last week. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded their strongest weekly inflows of 2026, giving prices support from institutional demand. At the same time, rising rate-hike expectations, higher Treasury yields and potentially higher compliance costs for stablecoin issuers are limiting the upside for risk assets.

Bitfire Research said markets continued to price the possibility of another rate increase after the September 16 hike. Speaking at a Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago housing conference on September 23, Fed Governor Michael Barr said the risks around getting inflation back to target had increased, while employment risks had eased. Under his baseline scenario, further policy adjustment would still be required. CME FedWatch data showed the implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the October 27-28 meeting rising from around 50% at the start of the week to above 60%. The 10-year Treasury yield moved higher in parallel, adding pressure to risk assets, including crypto.

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Institutional flows provided the clearest source of support. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $23.9 billion in net inflows across the five trading sessions from September 21 to 25, the largest weekly inflow of 2026. That pushed the year-to-date total back into positive territory. Daily inflows approached $1 billion on September 21 before easing to about $155 million on Friday, but the market still recorded a seventh consecutive day of net inflows. Spot ether ETFs also turned positive over the same period. Bitfire Research sees institutional buying as a likely driver of bitcoin’s upward move last week.

The broader market, however, has yet to return to a fully risk-on state. The Coinbase premium remained slightly negative at around -0.02%, suggesting that ETF demand is supporting U.S. spot buying but has not yet restored a clear spot-market premium. The unauthorized transfer from a Bitget hot wallet in the early hours of September 25, initially estimated at around $352 million and later at approximately $388 million after other on-chain assets were included, also weighed on sentiment.

Regulation is creating a second source of friction. The Federal Reserve has formally proposed new capital and redemption requirements for payment stablecoin issuers under its supervision. In addition to reserve assets, issuers could be required to maintain tiered operating capital: 2% on the first $20 billion, 1.5% on the next $30 billion and 1% on amounts above $50 billion. Bitfire Research believes the proposal would raise the cost of compliant issuance and shift competition in stablecoins toward capital efficiency, distribution and regulatory execution, rather than supply growth alone.

Binance also agreed to invest $100 million for approximately 1.237 million Class A shares in Circle and signed a five-year USDC promotion partnership. The deal should broaden USDC’s distribution across global exchanges and reduce concerns over its reliance on Coinbase as a primary channel. Market participants will be watching changes in USDC supply and exchange balances, as well as the pace at which Bitget restores withdrawals.

Looking into October, the probability of near-term progress on market-structure legislation appears relatively low. Attention is likely to move toward implementation and enforcement. The Fed’s stablecoin capital and redemption proposal is now in the consultation phase, while the U.S. Treasury’s consultation on stablecoin rules is expected to close around October 19. SEC and CFTC initiatives around tokenized-securities exemptions and no-action arrangements will also remain important signposts for DeFi and regulated digital-asset businesses.

The next macro catalysts are the October 2 jobs report, the October 14 consumer-price index and the October 28 FOMC meeting. Strong inflation and employment data could keep markets pricing further rate risk. Softer data could give risk assets more room to extend their recovery. Oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield remain key concurrent indicators of real liquidity conditions.

Technically, bitcoin is trading closer to a high-level consolidation after a strong breakout. The price rebounded from around $75,600, broke above $87,000 and then retreated into the $84,000-$85,000 range. It briefly fell below $83,000 but recovered quickly. Continued ETF inflows are providing support, while declining daily inflows and higher Treasury yields have slowed the momentum of the advance. A sustained hold around $84,000, accompanied by renewed volume, could put $87,000-$90,000 back in view. A break below $82,000 would expose the $80,000 level.

The technical picture remains moderately constructive. The seven-day moving average is around $85,000 and the 20-day moving average around $81,200, with shorter-term averages turning upward. RSI14 is approximately 58-62, a neutral-to-strong range, with no clear bearish divergence. The 20-day Bollinger Band has a midline around $80,500, an upper band near $87,800 and a lower band near $74,900. Unless bitcoin can reclaim and hold the upper band, the more likely near-term path is continued consolidation between the midline and upper band.

About Bitfire Group

Bitfire Group Holdings Limited (01611.HK) is a leading digital asset financial services platform in Asia, committed to building the Asia-Pacific’s first private-banking-grade digital asset steward. Holding SFC Type 1, 4 and 9 Licences issued by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong, the Group delivers compliant, secure and efficient one-stop digital asset services for institutional clients and high-net-worth individuals.