Tesla stock rises as company reports Q3 deliveries that top analyst estimates

Tesla (TSLA) reported third quarter delivery numbers that topped analyst estimates, just as the EV-maker delayed its Roadster launch, but began volume production of Tesla Semi.

Tesla reported Q3 deliveries of 486,532 vs 463,000 estimated per Bloomberg consensus, down sequentially compared to Q2 and a 2% drop from the units delivered a year ago. The company also said it produced 464,391 vehicles in Q3.

Shares were up roughly 4% in early trade on Friday.

Tesla also said it deployed 13.7 GWh of energy storage products in the quarter.

“Tesla’s Megapack earned entry into Nvdia’s DSX Ready program, qualifying it as a key infrastructure component for AI data centers,” William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer wrote in a note to clients shortly after release of the numbers. “We’ll continue to monitor for root cause, but we expect growth in GWh deployments to accelerate into the second half.”

Last year’s Q3 report was a big one, as it included the last US EV sales in which the $7,500 federal tax credit was in play. The drop could have been larger, but Tesla appears to have gained more market share in the US EV space, European sales have improved, and Tesla’s Giga Shanghai exports more vehicles for other markets.

“Overall EU registrations tracked ~-9% y/y, with strength in France and Germany, offset by declines in the UK, Italy, and Spain,” JPMorgan’s Rajat Gupta wrote in a note to clients. “In China, July-August wholesale volumes, including exports, increased +19% y/y, comprising exports up +92% y/y while domestic retail sales are estimated to have declined -21% y/y.”

JPMorgan did lower its Q3 estimate to 482,000 units, citing weakness in China and the US.

Perhaps weakness in the US, however, could have been worse. Positive feedback and reviews of Tesla’s supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) may have helped sales. Tesla said at the end of Q2 that FSD subscriptions reached 1.48 million, a 56% jump compared to a year ago. Most FSD subscribers are likely based in the US.

Tesla’s Q3 report comes after the company delayed its Roadster reveal, originally slated for Oct. 1.

“We’ve been tracking the weather closely with local meteorologists, but given the severe conditions predicted & because this event can only be held outdoors, we’ve made the difficult decision to reschedule,” the company said in an X post, adding that the new date would be Oct. 15.

A two-week delay due to the weather caught many off guard.  The Information reported several weeks ago that the reveal event could include a demonstration of a limited-edition ​version equipped with cold-gas thrusters developed in collaboration with ​SpaceX (SPCX), potentially enabling some form of hovering or flying capability. This would likely necessitate an outdoor event, as Tesla indicated.