Will High-Tech Stocks Rise at Year-End Like Last Year? Comparing Supply and Demand for 38 Nikkei 225 High-Tech Stocks to Last Year

Introduction

The eighth installment covers Nikkei 225 high-tech stocks. Here, we define “high-tech stocks” as the 38 stocks classified under the Tokyo Stock Exchange sectors of Electric Appliances and Precision Instruments.

From October to December last year, the Nikkei Stock Average rose by 12%, and high-tech stocks showed even stronger momentum. Will the same thing happen at the end of this year? I compared the supply and demand from the end of last September with the current situation using the same metrics.

[Image: Comparison between last year and this year (number of stocks with aligned patterns, direction of December expiration)]

*Margin trading balances are based on data published by JPX for the weeks of September 26, 2025, and September 25, 2026. Stock prices are closing prices from September 30 to December 30, 2025, and October 1, 2026. Stocks are counted based on the current Nikkei 225 composition. Figures include estimates.

High-tech stocks were strong from October to December last year

Price movements from September 30 to December 30.

• 38 high-tech stocks: Median +12%, nearly 90% (87%) rose

• Other sectors: Median +8%

• In October specifically, all 38 stocks rose (median +12%). Other sectors had a median of +1%.

However, they faltered in November. The median for the 38 stocks was pushed back from +12% at the end of October to +9% by the end of November.

Supply and demand were light at the end of September last year

At the end of September last year, 29 out of the 38 stocks were judged as having a “tailwind” by Supply and Demand Navi 225. The median institutional margin ratio was 2.2x, and the median profit/loss for buyers was an unrealized gain of +14%.

Among them, there were 20 stocks that met the following four criteria.

• Institutional margin ratio of 3x or less

• Institutional buying balance of 25% or less of daily trading volume

• Buyers have unrealized gains

• Sellers have unrealized losses of 5% or more

These 20 stocks did not fall at all from October to December (median +13%). With Kioxia at +114%, Lasertec at +46%, Fanuc at +43%, Advantest at +34%, KOKUSAI at +31%, and Tokyo Electron at +30%, stocks with this pattern were at the center of last year’s rise.

Another feature was the direction of the December expiration dates. As of the end of September, there were 21 positions in the Nikkei 225 with an importance of 50% or higher reaching their expiration date in December. Of those, 20 were held by sellers (positions that were shorted in June and resulted in unrealized losses). As the expiration date approached, buybacks were more likely to occur, creating a setup that easily supported price increases.

What is different at the end of September this year?

Using the same yardstick, let’s look at the current 38 high-tech stocks.

• “Tailwinds” are present for 19 stocks (compared to 29 last year)

• The median margin buying ratio is 5.5x (compared to 2.2x last year)

• The median profit/loss for buyers is +6% (compared to +14% last year)

• The number of stocks meeting all 4 criteria is 6 stocks (compared to 20 last year)

The biggest difference is the direction of the December expiration dates. This year, there are 18 positions with an importance of 50% or higher reaching their expiration date in December. Of those, 15 are held by buyers, which is the opposite of last year. These are positions bought on margin in the high price range in June.

Among high-tech stocks, Kioxia (bought at the end of June, 79% importance), Disco (71%), MinebeaMitsumi (68%), Tokyo Electron (54%), and TDK (54%) are all not currently classified as having “tailwinds.”

The 6 stocks that have the same setup as last year

• Advantest: Ratio 3.0x, sellers have approximately 20% unrealized loss

• Ibiden: Ratio 1.1x, sellers have approximately 33% unrealized loss

• KOKUSAI: Ratio 3.0x, sellers have approximately 32% unrealized loss

• Epson: Ratio 0.5x, sellers have approximately 21% unrealized loss

• Keyence: Ratio 2.1x, sellers have approximately 10% unrealized loss

• Olympus: Ratio 2.8x, sellers have approximately 11% unrealized loss

All of these have the same supply and demand setup as the stocks that rose last year. However, even if the setup is the same, prices can still fall. Of the 29 stocks that had “tailwinds” last year, 3 fell between October and December.

Will they rise this year like they did last year?

Last year, the combination of “light supply and demand” and “December expiration dates being on the seller’s side” made it easy for high-tech stocks to rise in unison.

This year, the number of high-tech stocks with light supply and demand has narrowed to 6, and there are buyer expiration dates looming in December. The conditions for the entire high-tech sector to rise in unison as they did last year are not as aligned as they were last year.

On the other hand, the six stocks with similar patterns have the same supply and demand as the stocks that were at the center of last year’s rise. What determines whether they actually rise is the material (AI investment trends, earnings from late October, interest rates) rather than supply and demand. Please use supply and demand as a tool to see if momentum is likely to build when they start to rise, or if selling is likely to occur at higher price levels.

Since margin balance data has been published daily since 9/28, you can track day by day how much of the buyers’ positions are decreasing toward the December settlement date.

Summary

• From October to December last year, tech stocks had a median increase of +12%. The center of the rise was stocks that had light supply and demand at the end of September.

• Most of the positions for the December settlement date last year were sellers’ positions.

• This year, there are six tech stocks that have the same pattern as last year. Most of the positions for the December settlement date are buyers’ positions.

• The stocks that have the same pattern as last year are Advantest, Ibiden, KOKUSAI, Epson, Keyence, and Olympus.

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*This note is for sharing the author’s personal thoughts and records, and does not recommend buying or selling any specific stocks (it is not investment advice). The figures are based on the author’s calculations and estimates using data published by JPX, etc., and past price movements do not guarantee future results. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.