October 3, 2026

Dow $51,177↑ Weekly Market Summary & Key Points for Next Week (Week of 10/03)

Good morning! This is the Morning Assembly’s Market Report 📊
On Saturday, October 3, 2026, we will provide a quick review of the market conditions for the past week!

🌍 This Week’s Market Overview

The biggest highlight in the market this week was the cryptocurrency market reaching a historic turning point with the SEC’s approval of leveraged ETFs, which raised expectations for capital inflows from institutional investors. As a result, Bitcoin and Ethereum showed steady performance. Meanwhile, in traditional markets, while Nikkei futures showed a strong rise due to the weak yen trend and expectations for corporate earnings, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained only slightly higher, reflecting a tug-of-war between the resilience of the U.S. economy and the prospect of prolonged monetary tightening. In the commodity market, gold and oil fell against the backdrop of concerns about a global economic slowdown, a strong dollar, and interest rate hike expectations, making it a week characterized by a complex environment where risk-off and risk-on sentiments coexisted.

📊 Nikkei Futures

| Item | Value |
|——|—–|
| Closing Price | 69,855.00 JPY |
| Daily Change | 📈 ▲ +1,585.00 (+2.32%) |

Fundamental Analysis:

For Nikkei futures this week, the continued weak yen trend was the main factor pushing up stock prices, as it boosted expectations for improved export competitiveness and expanded overseas earnings for Japanese companies. Additionally, solid earnings forecasts for domestic companies, the recovery in inbound demand, and expectations for improved personal consumption due to wage increases are supporting the overall resilience of the Japanese stock market. Although uncertainty about the global economy remains, the Japanese market is showing relative strength against the backdrop of its own positive factors.

Technical Analysis:

RSI(14): 66.47
MACD: 634.95 / Signal: 123.71
SMA5: 67412.00 / SMA20: 65535.50
(Commentary) The RSI is at 66.47, approaching the overbought level of 70, suggesting that strong buying pressure continues. However, a sense of overheating is also gradually increasing. The MACD is at 634.95, significantly above the signal line of 123.71, clearly indicating a very strong upward trend. The short-term moving average SMA5 (67412.00) has formed a golden cross, clearly exceeding the long-term moving average SMA20 (65535.50), and the price (69,855.00) is also trading well above both moving averages, indicating that a strong short- to medium-term upward trend is continuing. While there appears to be strong interest in buying on dips, caution regarding the overheating indicated by the RSI is advised.

🌟 Today’s Featured Stock: Kioxia HD (285A)

Fundamental Analysis:

Kioxia HD rose 1.05% this week. The NAND flash memory market is a cyclical industry easily influenced by demand trends for smartphones and data centers, but currently, there are expectations that the expansion of AI-related demand and the growth of cloud services will boost demand in the medium to long term. However, some view that it will still take time for a full-scale earnings recovery, so it is necessary to carefully assess the status of supply and demand balance improvements.

Technical Analysis:

RSI(14): 58.42
MACD: 94.63 / Signal: -118.17
SMA5: 18431.00 / SMA20: 18126.42
(Commentary) The RSI is at 58.42, in the neutral to slightly overbought range, suggesting that buying pressure is dominant. The MACD is at 94.63, significantly above the signal line of -118.17, and since the MACD line has emerged into positive territory, a strong buy signal is lit. The short-term moving average SMA5 (18431.00) has formed a golden cross above the long-term moving average SMA20 (18126.42), and the price (19,300.00) is also trading clearly above both moving averages, indicating a clear short- to medium-term upward trend. It can be said that the technical situation holds promise for further gains.

🇺🇸 Dow Jones Industrial Average

| Item | Value |
|——|—–|
| Closing Price | $51,176.96 |
| Daily Change | 📈 ▲ +250.40 (+0.49%) |

The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw only a modest gain this week. While solid U.S. economic indicators provided support, concerns over the Federal Reserve’s prolonged monetary tightening and the high-interest-rate environment continued to cap upside potential. Technical indicators also lack a clear direction, suggesting the market is waiting for the next definitive catalyst.

🥇 Gold

| Item | Value |
|——|—–|
| Price | $4,162.30 |
| Daily Change | 📉 ▼ -40.00 (-0.95%) |

Fundamental Analysis:

Gold prices fell by approximately 1% this week. This is primarily due to persistent expectations of prolonged U.S. monetary tightening, with rising real interest rates and a stronger dollar acting as headwinds for gold. Additionally, following the U.S. SEC’s approval of leveraged ETFs for assets like Bitcoin, there may have been a shift of investment capital from traditional safe-haven assets like gold into high-growth crypto assets.

Technical Analysis:

RSI(14): 33.92
MACD: -60.51 / Signal: -34.22
SMA5: 4179.88 / SMA20: 4334.33
(Commentary) The RSI is at 33.92, approaching the oversold level of 30, suggesting strong selling pressure. The MACD is at -60.51, below the signal line of -34.22, indicating a clear continuation of the downward trend. A death cross has formed where the short-term moving average SMA5 (4179.88) is clearly below the long-term moving average SMA20 (4334.33), and with the price (4,162.30) trading significantly below both moving averages, a strong short- to medium-term downward trend is confirmed. It is highly likely that downward pressure will remain dominant for the time being.

🛢️ Crude Oil (WTI)

| Item | Value |
|——|—–|
| Price | $91.11 |
| Daily Change | 📉 ▼ -1.76 (-1.90%) |

Fundamental Analysis:

Crude oil prices (WTI) fell by a relatively significant 1.90% this week. This is believed to be due to growing concerns over a global economic slowdown, and in particular, the sluggish recovery of the Chinese economy, which has increased uncertainty regarding future demand. Despite efforts by OPEC+ to continue production cuts, concerns over oversupply have not been completely dispelled, and the market remains sensitive to developments on the demand side.

Technical Analysis:

RSI(14): 48.04
MACD: 0.59 / Signal: 1.87
SMA5: 91.28 / SMA20: 96.04
(Commentary) The RSI is at 48.04, placing it in neutral territory; while it is not at a clear overbought or oversold level, it suggests a slightly downward momentum. The MACD is at 0.59, below the signal line of 1.87, suggesting a shift to or continuation of a downward trend. The short-term moving average SMA5 (91.28) is below the long-term moving average SMA20 (96.04), and with the price (91.11) trading below both moving averages, it is confirmed that a short-term downward trend is dominant. The market is attempting to gauge demand trends, and a search for lower price levels may continue.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

Fundamental Analysis:

Bitcoin saw a significant improvement in market sentiment this week, primarily driven by the US SEC’s approval of the listing of 3x leveraged ETFs for six assets, including Bitcoin. This has raised expectations for new capital inflows from institutional investors. Additionally, news that the European Central Bank is considering putting central bank money on-chain has strengthened expectations for the future of blockchain technology, serving as a positive medium- to long-term factor.

Technical Analysis:

RSI(14): 63.1
MACD: 1927.65 / Signal: 2087.89
SMA50: 78554.25, EMA200: 74721.23, BB Upper: 88977.87 / BB Lower: 75871.94, ADX: 39.37
(Commentary) While the RSI is at 63.1, not yet reaching overbought levels, it suggests that strong buying pressure continues. Although the MACD at 1927.65 is below the signal line of 2087.89, the MACD itself remains at a high level in positive territory, indicating that while the upward trend momentum has temporarily slowed, the underlying trend remains strong. The price (84,629.37) is clearly above the SMA50 (78554.25) and EMA200 (74721.23), confirming that the long-term upward trend is continuing. It is approaching the upper Bollinger Band (88977.87), so the possibility of a temporary correction should be kept in mind, but since the ADX (39.37) remains at a high level, the strength of the trend is still intact. TradingView’s recommendation is also “STRONG_BUY,” indicating strong market buying interest.

🔷 Ethereum (ETH)

Fundamental Analysis:

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum performed steadily, benefiting from the US SEC’s approval of leveraged ETFs. Since Ethereum itself is included in the ETFs, there is strong anticipation for the opening of a direct path for capital inflows. Furthermore, the news that the ECB is considering putting central bank money on-chain raises expectations for the social implementation of blockchain technology, which can be considered a positive medium- to long-term factor contributing to the development of the entire Ethereum ecosystem.

Technical Analysis:

RSI(14): 60.23
MACD: 66.07 / Signal: 78.03
SMA5: [No Data] / SMA20: [No Data]
(Commentary) The RSI is at 60.23, positioned in the high neutral range, suggesting that strong buying pressure continues. It has not reached overbought levels, but it reflects a bullish market stance. Although the MACD at 66.07 is below the signal line of 78.03, it remains in positive territory, indicating that while the upward trend momentum has temporarily weakened, the underlying trend can be judged as upward. While detailed trend judgment is difficult due to the lack of short-term and medium-term moving average data, based on the RSI and MACD situation, it can be viewed as being in a temporary correction phase within an upward trend or as a preparation stage for the next rise, and it is inferred that buying interest remains strong.

📰 Key News This Week

1️⃣ US SEC approves listing of 3x leveraged ETFs for 6 assets including Bitcoin

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the listing and trading of six 3x leveraged ETFs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas by the Cboe BZX Exchange. This is a landmark event for the crypto asset market and significantly opens the path for capital inflows from institutional investors. It is estimated that this contributed to a rise of approximately +0.10% for Bitcoin and +0.30% for Ethereum. Additionally, some capital may have flowed out of gold, potentially creating downward pressure of about -0.10%.
🔗 https://coinpost.jp/?p=740844

2️⃣ “Bitcoin has risen 10 times in October over the past 13 years,” US CNBC points to possibility of entering a bull market

A host on US CNBC pointed out the possibility of Bitcoin entering a bull market in October based on historical data. This strongly stimulates the psychology of market participants and has the effect of fostering positive sentiment. It is considered one of the factors that raised market expectations and supported Bitcoin’s gradual upward trend, contributing to a price increase of approximately +0.05%.
🔗 https://coinpost.jp/?p=740846

3️⃣ “Three ways to put central bank money on-chain” ECB is considering

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel explained three models (direct issuance, bridging, and private intermediation) for handling central bank money on-chain in response to the rise of tokenized finance. This indicates that central banks are seriously considering the use of blockchain technology, which is news that enhances the credibility and future potential of the entire crypto asset and blockchain ecosystem. It is estimated to have had a positive impact of approximately +0.10% on Ethereum and +0.05% on Bitcoin.
🔗 https://coinpost.jp/?p=740866

4️⃣ NEAR Intents: Approximately 600 million yen in hacked assets fully returned

It was reported that assets worth approximately $3.8 million (about 600 million yen) that were drained in an attack exploiting a vulnerability in NEAR Intents have been fully returned. This is a very positive example of post-security incident response in the crypto asset sector and has the effect of easing market-wide security concerns. It is believed that this contributed to a market-wide recovery in confidence, with an impact of approximately +0.02% on Bitcoin and +0.05% on Ethereum.
🔗 https://coinpost.jp/?p=740845

5️⃣ US Treasury Department takes enforcement action against shadow banking network used by Iran, part of a new program launched in August

The US Treasury Department announced that it has taken unusual action against the A7 network as part of a new economic sanctions program against Iran. This action also mentions content related to cryptocurrency, demonstrating the regulatory authorities’ stance on strengthening oversight against illicit use. While the direct impact on the overall market is limited, the strengthening of crackdowns on illicit use is expected to lead to improved integrity in the crypto asset market in the long term, and is seen as having indirectly contributed to a market confidence boost of approximately +0.03%.
🔗 https://coinpost.jp/?p=740858

📝 Editor’s Note

The market changes every day. I hope this article serves as a ‘daily tip’ for you!
I will update again tomorrow, so please like and follow✨

※This content is not intended as investment solicitation or advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.
※The news section is an original AI commentary based on information from the provider. Please check the source articles for details.

#MarketNews #NikkeiAverage #USDJPY #BTC #Investment #InvestmentBeginner #MorningAssembly #Economy #Business #AssetManagement

Dow $51,177↑ Weekly Market Summary & Key Points for Next Week (Week of 10/03)

🌍 This Week’s Market Overview

📊 Nikkei Futures

Fundamental Analysis:

Technical Analysis:

🌟 Today’s Featured Stock: Kioxia HD (285A)

Fundamental Analysis:

Technical Analysis:

🇺🇸 Dow Jones Industrial Average

🥇 Gold

Fundamental Analysis:

Technical Analysis:

🛢️ Crude Oil (WTI)

Fundamental Analysis:

Technical Analysis:

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

Fundamental Analysis:

Technical Analysis:

🔷 Ethereum (ETH)

Fundamental Analysis:

Technical Analysis:

📰 Key News This Week

1️⃣ US SEC approves listing of 3x leveraged ETFs for 6 assets including Bitcoin

2️⃣ “Bitcoin has risen 10 times in October over the past 13 years,” US CNBC points to possibility of entering a bull market

3️⃣ “Three ways to put central bank money on-chain” ECB is considering

4️⃣ NEAR Intents: Approximately 600 million yen in hacked assets fully returned

5️⃣ US Treasury Department takes enforcement action against shadow banking network used by Iran, part of a new program launched in August

📝 Editor’s Note

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