Tesla Stock Is Down 15% This Year. Is the $396 Street Target Within Reach?
Key Takeaways
-
Tesla stock has fallen 15% YTD to close at $371 on October 2, 2026, after Q3 deliveries of 486,532 against a 456,896 estimate.
-
Street ratings stand at 15 buys, 4 outperforms, 20 holds, 2 underperforms and 2 sells, with a $396 mean target that sits 7% above the close.
-
TIKR’s mid-case model targets $1,863 by December 31, 2030, implying a 403% return, or 46% annualized.
-
Q3 results are due October 21 after the market close.
Tesla Stock Is Down 15% Since January, With a Low Near $300 in July
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA:NASDAQ) stock has fallen 15% year to date, closing at $371 on October 2, 2026 after the company reported third quarter deliveries of 486,532 vehicles against a Visible Alpha estimate of 456,896. Reuters reported that the shares gained 4.7% that day.
Four stretches on the year-to-date chart line up with dated events.
-
Tesla stock closed 2025 at $450 and ended March at $372. The company reported first quarter deliveries of 358,023 on April 2, below the 368,903 estimate, and the chart’s spring low sits near $344 in early April.
-
Between early April and mid-May, the chart climbs from near $344 to near $445. Tesla stock closed June 30 at $421, and on July 2 the company reported second quarter deliveries of 480,126 against an estimate of 402,776.
-
Tesla reported second quarter results on July 22. Its CFO said the company exited the quarter with its largest order backlog since 2023, while negative free cash flow reflected sharply higher capex. Capex is expected to increase further in the second half and grow for the next two or three years. The company expects capital expenditures above $25 billion in 2026. The chart’s low, near $300, sits in late July.
-
Tesla stock recovered to near $380 in late September and closed at $355 on September 30. Tesla’s third quarter production of 464,391 vehicles came in below the 486,761 estimate, and below its deliveries.
The chart measures a 15% decline from the $450 close on December 31, 2025 to $371, with a spring low near $344, a July low near $300, and the October 2 close that followed the third quarter deliveries report.
The Street Mean Target Sits 7% Above Tesla Stock
Analysts rate Tesla stock 15 buys, 4 outperforms, 20 holds, 2 underperforms and 2 sells, with 3 giving no opinion. The mean price target is $396, which sits 7% above the $371 close, after standing at $346 on September 30, 2025, when the stock closed at $445. The 38 price targets range from $125 to $600.
TIKR Values Tesla Stock at $1,863, Pricing In a 403% Return by 2030
TIKR’s mid-case model values Tesla at $1,863 by December 31, 2030, implying a 403% total return from the current price of $371, or 46% annualized over 4.2 years.
That target sits 371% above the Street mean of $396.
Supporting the bullish case, Tesla exited the second quarter with its largest order backlog since 2023 and delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, while its robotaxi service has expanded unsupervised operations across Texas and Florida.
So what is Tesla, Inc. stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what TSLA stock could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.