[US Market 10/5] Tech stocks rise despite high long-term interest rates, stocks near record highs

Even though interest rates rose, stocks went up. This is the US market for Monday, October 5th.

US stocks absorbed the impact of rising long-term interest rates and high oil prices, rising led by tech stocks, while the dollar saw safe-haven buying due to European instability.

This morning, I will summarize in the order of manga, paper, and figures.

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This morning’s market manga

Nasdaq at record high, Dow slightly up, oil prices down (US market on 10/5) *Created/referenced using generative AI

Major Markets

Stocks

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose, with major tech indices pushing the overall market higher. The Nasdaq 100 hit a record high.
• Concerns over rising long-term interest rates and high energy prices were offset by solid corporate earnings, personal consumption, and expectations for AI-related investments.
• The view that rising interest rates have not significantly dampened investment appetite for AI-related sectors is considered a supporting factor for the stock market.

Forex

• Capital fled due to anxiety surrounding European fiscal and political issues, leading to dollar buying and pushing the dollar index near year-to-date highs.
• The euro saw moments where it fell to its lowest level since May 2025, and the yen also fell to the 158 yen range against the dollar.
• It is pointed out that with attention on the US FOMC minutes and official statements this week, the dollar’s strength could pause if the indicators are weak.

Interest Rates

• Yields on both 10-year and 30-year US Treasury bonds rose to their highest levels since 2002, and prices for medium- to long-term government bonds fell.
• Expectations of economic expansion due to increased AI infrastructure investment and persistent inflation are supporting expectations for additional interest rate hikes.
• If the 30-year bond yield approaches 6%, it will be the highest level since 2000, and the risk that hedge selling will accelerate the rise in long-term interest rates is also being noted.

Crude Oil

• Both WTI and Brent crude fell. This is against a backdrop of price cuts for benchmark oil types for Asia and a recovery in crude oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, which is leading to abundant supply.
• Although there were reports suggesting progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, concerns about escalating conflict remain due to the situation in Yemen and Iran’s hardline stance.

Gold

• Gold prices traded near the previous weekend’s closing price. Gold was re-evaluated as a safe-haven asset following increased risk in the European bond market.
• The fact that the number of US employed persons in September fell below expectations, causing expectations for an October rate hike to recede, also helped support gold prices.

Professional Perspective

🏦 Today, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.31% (+3bp) and the 30-year yield to 5.66% (+3bp). Expectations of economic expansion due to increased AI infrastructure investment are one factor pushing up interest rates. In addition, persistent inflation is supporting expectations for further rate hikes. If the 30-year bond yield approaches 6%, it will be at its highest level since 2000, and this can be characterized as a situation where the tug-of-war between prices and monetary policy continues.

📈 Even with rising interest rates, the S&P 500 rose +0.66% and the Nasdaq Composite rose +1.05%. The Nasdaq 100 hit a new record high, and the SOX semiconductor index also showed firm movement at +0.27%. Solid corporate earnings, personal consumption, and expectations for AI-related investment offset concerns about rising interest rates. It can be said that it was a day where growth expectations took precedence over caution regarding high valuations (i.e., whether the price is high relative to actual performance).

🥇 Gold held steady at 4,166.80 (+0.11%), near its previous weekend closing price. It appears that re-evaluation as a safe-haven asset occurred following increased risk in the European bond market. Over the last 20 trading days, the correlation between the US 10-year yield and gold was -0.35, and the correlation between gold and the S&P 500 was +0.30. A trend has been observed recently where gold tends to fall when interest rates rise, and it actually tends to move in tandem with stocks.

🌡️ The Fear & Greed Index, which measures investor sentiment, was 43 (Fear), up from 31 the previous day (retrieved at 08:01 JST on 10/6). Among S&P 500 components, 310 rose and 176 fell (advance-decline ratio 61.6%), 18 hit 52-week highs and 15 hit lows, and 43.3% of stocks were above their 200-day moving average. Despite the index’s movement (+0.66%), it was a day of broad-based buying 📊

📅 Looking at the bigger picture, the S&P 500 is +0.7% week-to-date, +1.6% month-to-date, and +13.6% year-to-date, sitting at -0.3% from its recent one-year high. The Nasdaq Composite is +1.1% week-to-date, +2.3% month-to-date, and +18.2% year-to-date, sitting at +0.0% from its recent one-year high. The semiconductor SOX is +0.3% week-to-date, +4.3% month-to-date, and +86.0% year-to-date, sitting at -10.0% from its recent one-year high. The S&P 500 is in a high price range.

JTA Morning Edition (This morning’s front page)

Announced Economic Indicators (10/5)

Major US economic indicators announced on the previous business day (times are in JST, units are as indicated in the source).

• ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Actual 54.9 / Forecast 55 / Previous 55.4 (Below forecast)

Upcoming Events to Watch

• 10/6 (Tue) 21:15 ADP Employment Report (JST) Previous: 20k
  Highlights: A precursor to employment data compiled by a private research firm. It is viewed as material to revise forecasts for Friday’s employment statistics.
• 10/6 (Tue) 21:30 Exports (JST) Previous: $310.7 billion
• 10/6 (Tue) 21:30 Trade Balance (JST) Forecast: -$102 billion / Previous: -$88.6 billion
  Highlights: The difference between exports and imports. It attracts attention at the end of the quarter because it directly affects GDP calculations.
• 10/6 (Tue) 21:30 Imports (JST) Previous: $399.3 billion
• 10/6 (Tue) 22:05 Official Remarks (JST)
  Highlights: Scheduled remarks by Fed officials, etc. The phrasing regarding the direction of monetary policy will be closely watched.

If you want to see this month’s and this week’s schedule at a glance, click here → View Economic Indicator Calendar

Related past articles

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※This article is a market summary for educational purposes and does not recommend buying or selling specific stocks or products. Numerical values are automatically aggregated based on public data such as Yahoo Finance.