October 6, 2026 Report: Why was the Nikkei 225 able to recover to the 70,000 yen level despite high interest rates?
NASDAQ record high, AI/semiconductor stock gains, and broadening buying. Decoding the substance of the 70,000 yen recovery
1. Today’s Conclusion
The Nikkei 225 has recovered to the 70,000 yen level. Today, the fact that it “remained” is more significant than the fact that it “rose”
Today’s Nikkei 225 closed at 70,683.98 yen up 737.12 yen from the previous day. The increase rate was +1.05%. The TOPIX also rose to 4,183.56, up +0.92%. Nikkei Index
Yesterday, it briefly touched the 70,000 yen level but was pushed back to close at 69,946 yen. However, today, despite a moment in the morning when it dipped into negative territory, it rebounded and recovered to the 70,000 yen level at the close. Newsweek Japan
I believe this is the most important point today.
If it were just a matter of “exceeding 70,000 yen,” that happened yesterday too.
Today is the day after. In a situation where profit-taking selling could easily have occurred due to the reaction from the significant rise the previous day, buying entered again, and the 70,000 yen level was maintained.
The background to this is the flow where the US NASDAQ hit a record high the previous day and AI-related stocks, centered on NVIDIA, were bought. Also, in the US, expectations for additional interest rate hikes in October receded following weaker employment indicators, and a decline in crude oil prices supported the stock market. Reuters
However, this does not mean the market has become safe. The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to 5.3493%, and expectations for additional interest rate hikes remain in Japan as well. It has also been reported that the Bank of Japan may suggest that the underlying inflation rate will reach its 2% target. Reuters
In other words, we are currently in a market where growth expectations for AI and semiconductors are being bought more than the headwind of high interest rates.
And today, there was one other small change.
Kioxia, which had been the star of the trading value rankings, retreated from the top spot for the first time in a while, and trading itself is calmer than before. I am concerned about this as a change in supply and demand, but I will not make it the main subject of this article and will touch on it only briefly later.
What we should look at today is not the 70,000 yen figure itself, but the fact that buying remained at that level.
From tomorrow onwards, the next focus will be whether it can maintain the 70,000 yen level and whether buying will spread further to the entire market, not just to a few AI and semiconductor stocks.
2. Facts, Grounds, Impact, Risks, and Future Developments
2-1. Facts | The price increase was broad. But it was a few large-cap stocks that moved the index
On October 6, the Nikkei 225 closed at 70,683.98 yen, up +737.12 yen (+1.05%) from the previous day. You can also confirm the closing price on the official Nikkei 225 website. Nikkei 225 Official
However, if you look only at the figure that “the Nikkei 225 rose by 737 yen,” you will misjudge the true substance of today’s market.
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market, there were 1,150 stocks that rose, 348 that fell, and 48 that remained unchanged. By industry, 30 out of 33 industries rose. The only three industries that fell were Information & Communication, Construction, and Air Transportation.
Kabutan
In other words, today was not a market where only the index rose.
Buying entered a wide range of stocks.
On the other hand, the force that actually pushed up the Nikkei 225 was quite biased.
Looking at the attached table, the top contributor was Advantest at +334.41 yen. Following that were TDK at +91.52 yen, Fast Retailing at +72.81 yen, Fujikura at +58.45 yen, and Recruit at +34.38 yen. The top 5 stocks alone totaled +591.57 yen. Kabutan
Of the Nikkei 225’s 737.12 yen gain, approximately 80% can be explained by the top 5 stocks.
This is the interesting part of today’s market.
Buying is spreading across the entire market. However, the force that pushed the Nikkei 225 to the 70,000 level was concentrated in a few large-cap stocks.
‘Spread’ and ‘concentration’ were happening at the same time.
2-2. Rationale | In the US, expectations for AI profit growth outweighed high interest rates
A major factor pushing up Japanese stocks today was the previous day’s US market.
On October 5, the NASDAQ hit a record high, up 1.05%. Large-cap tech stocks like NVIDIA and Microsoft rose, and NVIDIA also hit a record high. Reuters
Normally, the current high-interest-rate environment is a headwind for growth stocks.
The fact that the NASDAQ still hit a record high shows that, at least in the current market, expectations for profit growth in AI-related companies are being prioritized over rising interest rates themselves.
Furthermore, in the US, following weaker employment data, the view that the October FOMC would implement additional rate hikes has receded. Reuters also reported that weak employment indicators are the backdrop for the NASDAQ’s rise by easing concerns about rate hikes. Reuters
In other words, the current situation is:
Long-term interest rates themselves are high
↓
However, vigilance that the Fed will continue to raise rates has receded
↓
Buying of AI and large-cap tech continues
.
This led directly to Japanese AI and semiconductor stocks.
2-3. Impact | It didn’t end with semiconductors; funds spread to other sectors
The most prominent stocks in the Japanese market were, as expected, AI and semiconductor-related. Advantest rose 3.85%, TDK 5.25%, Fujikura 5.19%, and Taiyo Yuden 6.15%.
However, that is not the only characteristic of today. By sector, non-ferrous metals had the highest rate of increase, and buying also spread to precision instruments, banks, insurance, and steel.
Kabutan
This is a point to note as a difference from yesterday.
While AI and semiconductors remain the main players, today funds spread from them to financial and cyclical stocks.
On the other hand, rising interest rates are not necessarily bad news for all stocks.
While they are a burden for growth stocks, they lead to expectations of improved margins for banks and insurance companies, so the perception of ‘rising interest rates’ differs by sector.
Furthermore, crude oil prices also fell. Brent crude fell to
$99.49 and WTI to $88.43. The recovery of exports from the Middle East and the release of emergency reserves by the G7 eased supply concerns. Reuters
Crude oil and fuel exports from Gulf countries also recovered to about 81% of pre-war levels in September. Reuters
Lower crude oil prices act to suppress corporate costs and inflationary pressure, which is a tailwind for the stock market.
Looking at the trading value makes it even easier to understand where today’s funds are heading.
At the top is Advantest at 674.8 billion yen. Kioxia, which had been seeing top-tier trading volume for days, fell to 2nd place with 623.9 billion yen.
Kioxia was down 2.01% from the previous day, but its trading value remains at an extremely high level. However, compared to the abnormal trading volume seen a while ago, supply and demand have calmed down considerably.
I will not chase this too far today.
However, “it is possible that the overheating in both buying and selling has begun to quiet down” is a supply-demand shift I want to keep an eye on going forward.
2-4. Risks | Stock prices are strong. But the problems of interest rates and crude oil have not disappeared
Although today’s market was strong, the environment itself has not become safe.
First, in the United States, long-term interest rates remain at a high level.
If high interest rates continue, the moment growth expectations for AI companies slow down even slightly, the sense of overvaluation that had been ignored until now could be reconsidered.
In Japan, speculation about additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan also remains.
The Bank of Japan may suggest in its October Outlook Report that the underlying inflation rate has reached around 2%, and there is awareness of a stance that leaves room for future additional rate hikes. Reuters
Governor Ueda has also reiterated the importance of anchoring inflation near the 2% price stability target. Reuters
The same applies to crude oil.
Prices fell today, but the situation in the Middle East itself has not improved. Tanker attacks and logistics disruptions continue, and there are warnings that issues with transport and refining capacity could push prices up in the future. Reuters
Therefore, if the balance of AI profit growth, interest rates, and crude oil
is disrupted, the current stock price rally could become unstable all at once.
2-5. Future Outlook | More than whether it can defend 70,000, it is about whether the “depth of buying” continues
What we should look at from here on is not simply whether the Nikkei 225 can maintain 70,000.
In today’s market, 1,150 stocks rose, and 30 out of 33 sectors gained, confirming a spread across the entire market.
On the other hand, the rise in the index is still heavily dependent on the top contributors.
Therefore, what I want to check next is
“whether buying will continue for other stocks while maintaining the rise in large-cap stocks”.
If this continues, the 70,000 yen level will not be built solely by a few high-priced stocks, but will become a more robust market.
Conversely, if the flow becomes
number of rising stocks decreases
↓
only top contributors rise
↓
US interest rates or crude oil rise again
, it will return to a state where the substance is not as strong as the index looks.
Today’s recovery to 70,000 was a strong move.
However, what is important from here is not “whether it exceeded 70,000,” but
how many stocks and sectors can continue to support that rise.
From tomorrow onwards, it looks like it will be a time to watch the breadth of buying and its sustainability rather than the index itself.
3. Diagrams
I plan to create and attach a rate of change graph and table after 10:30 PM.
4. Technical and Fundamental Macro Analysis
4-1. Technical | 70,000 yen from a “target point” to a “potential support line”
The Nikkei 225 closed on October 6 at 70,683.98 yen, up 737.12 yen (+1.05%) from the previous day.Nikkei 225 Official
The previous day, it reached 70,000 yen during trading hours but closed below it; however, today it returned to the 70,000 yen level and maintained it until the market close.
From a technical perspective, this is the stage to watch whether the role of 70,000 yen changes.
Until now, 70,000 yen = a psychological milestone capping the upside.
From now on, it may change to 70,000 yen = a potential support line where buying enters on dips.
However, it is likely too early to view this as a complete breakout to the upside.
As confirmed in Chapter 2, while today’s rise spread across the entire market, the Nikkei 225’s push was heavily dependent on a few large-cap stocks such as Advantest.
Therefore, going forward, what will be important is not simply whether the closing price is above 70,000 yen, but
how quickly it is bought back when it temporarily falls below 70,000 yen.
If buying enters on dips and the movement back to 70,000 yen continues, the reliability of the milestone will increase.
Conversely, if it cannot return after falling below 70,000 yen and the number of advancing stocks also decreases, we must reconsider that this rise was heavily driven by large-cap stocks.
In other words, at this point, it is more natural to view it as
a stage of confirming whether 70,000 yen can be turned into a support line, rather than concluding that it has broken through 70,000 yen.
4-2. Fundamental | What is supporting the AI market is still earnings growth
The biggest reason the current AI market continues is not just the theme.
It is that corporate earnings are actually following through.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a 27% year-on-year increase in earnings for S&P 500 companies for the July-September 2026 quarter. The structure is one where AI infrastructure-related companies support a significant portion of that growth. Reuters
Furthermore, data center investment, which serves as the foundation for AI demand, has not collapsed significantly at this point.
Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 year-end forecast for U.S. data center capacity by 5GW from its previous estimate to 64GW, and while it lowered its 2027 year-end forecast by 5GW, it still expects 90GW. Reuters
Also, Goldman Sachs states that capital expenditure by major U.S. hyperscalers will expand to approximately 800 billion dollars in 2026, and market forecasts expect it to reach 1.1 trillion dollars in 2027. Reuters
In other words, the current flow of
expansion of AI service demand
↓
data center expansion
↓
demand for GPU, memory, network, and power equipment
↓
earnings of semiconductor and electronic component companies
is still continuing.
In fact, 34.76 billion dollars flowed into global equity funds in the week ending September 30. Expectations for AI investment are supporting the inflow of equity funds. Reuters
However, in the same week, 2.63 billion dollars flowed out of technology funds. Meanwhile, 1.13 billion dollars flowed into financial funds. Reuters
This is important.
The market has already begun to shift from buying anything AI-related to selecting AI-related stocks with growing profits
stage.
Furthermore, while 2026 earnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to increase by 35% year-on-year, there is a view that profit growth rates will slow to around 15% in 2027.
Growth in AI-related capital expenditure is also expected to slow from the nearly doubling pace in 2026 to around 37% in 2027. Reuters
Therefore, in terms of fundamentals,
the next focus will likely be on how much the growth rate slows rather than whether AI investment will stop
.
4-3. Macro | A somewhat strange state where stocks rise even with high interest rates
The most difficult aspect of the current market is that stock prices and interest rates are rising in the same direction. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has significantly exceeded 5%, and as of October 6, it is reported to be at a 24-year high. Reuters
Normally, a rise in long-term interest rates is a headwind for growth stocks.
Nevertheless, the NASDAQ has hit a new record high.
One of the reasons behind this is the retreat of caution regarding additional rate hikes.
Following weaker U.S. employment data, the probability that the FOMC will keep policy rates unchanged in October has risen to about 80%. Reuters
In other words, the situation is:
Long-term interest rates are high. ↓ However, the possibility of the Fed immediately raising rates further has decreased. ↓ Expectations for profit growth in AI companies are maintained.
.
Meanwhile, there are opposing forces in Japan.
The Bank of Japan may indicate this month that the underlying inflation rate has reached near the 2% target, and if that is confirmed, it could reinforce expectations for an additional rate hike in December. Reuters
Governor Kazuo Ueda also emphasized on October 6 the importance of anchoring the underlying inflation rate near 2%, and indicated a stance of adjusting the degree of monetary easing as necessary. Reuters
In short, Japanese stocks are in a quite complex financial environment where
caution regarding additional rate hikes is receding in the U.S., while expectations for additional rate hikes remain in Japan
.
4-4. Crude Oil | It is too early to say we are safe just because prices have fallen
In the crude oil market on October 6, Brent crude fell to $99.49 and WTI fell to $88.43. Reuters
The background to this is the recovery of crude oil exports from the Middle East and the release of emergency reserves by the G7.
Excluding Iran, crude oil and petroleum product exports from Gulf countries in September recovered to 81% of pre-war levels. For crude oil and condensate alone, they have returned to 91%. Reuters
This acts as a tailwind for the stock market as it works to suppress inflationary pressure.
However, the supply chain has not normalized.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has stated that due to the impact of supply reductions caused by conflict and the depletion of inventories, it could take up to two years to restore global crude oil and fuel inventories. Reuters
Attacks on tankers continue around the Strait of Hormuz, and it is considered too early to judge that supply has fully normalized. Reuters
Therefore, crude oil must be viewed as
currently a tailwind for stock prices, but a factor that will turn into a sudden headwind if it rises again.
as we move forward.
4-5. When you layer these three, how does the current 70,000 yen level look?
Technically, can it turn 70,000 into a support level?.
Fundamentally, will AI investment continue to lead to profit growth?.
Macro-wise, will interest rates and crude oil remain within a range that does not damage corporate profits?. When you layer these three, the current market is quite distinctive.
In the short term, if the strength of NASDAQ and NVIDIA continues, funds will likely continue to flow into Japanese AI and semiconductor stocks. Reuters
In the medium term, it will be important to see how much AI capital expenditure actually translates into sales and profits in the upcoming earnings season. Reuters
In the long term, if stock prices rise more than profit growth, the high interest rates currently being ignored will become a major problem again.
In other words,
what is supporting the current 70,000 yen level is not just ‘stock price momentum,’ but the fact that profit growth is still keeping pace.
However, conversely,
when profit growth slows, there is a possibility that current high interest rates will suddenly begin to impact stock prices.
From here on, rather than just looking at the number of whether the Nikkei 225 is at 70,000 or 71,000 yen, it is more important to confirm whether stock prices, corporate profits, and interest rates are all pointing in the same direction.
5. Notable Market Events
6. Future Risks
There are only three things to watch
In terms of seeing whether the Nikkei 225 can maintain the 70,000 yen level, future risks can be narrowed down to three.
① Resurgence of US interest rates
The US 10-year Treasury yield is at a high level. Currently, expectations for profit growth in AI companies are offsetting the rise in interest rates, but if rates rise further, it will once again become a burden for high-PER stocks. Reuters
② Additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan
The Bank of Japan may indicate that it recognizes the underlying inflation rate has reached around 2%, and speculation about additional rate hikes remains. Reuters
While this may be a tailwind for banks and insurance, it is likely to be a headwind for growth stocks and companies with high dependence on borrowing, so the divergence between stocks may widen further in the future.
③ Slowdown in profit growth in the AI market
The current high stock prices are supported by the profit growth of AI-related companies.
Therefore, what we want to be careful about is not ‘whether AI investment will stop,’ but
whether sales and profits will fail to keep up with the growth in investment amounts.
If this breaks down, there is a possibility that stock price adjustments will be significant in a high-interest-rate environment. Reuters
What to watch from here on is not simply whether it falls below 70,000 yen.
Will interest rates rise further?
Will AI companies’ profit growth continue?
Will the breadth of rising stocks be maintained?
When these three points begin to crumble, it will likely be the time to change one’s market outlook.
7. Summary
At the 70,000 yen level, look at the “substance” rather than the “number”
Today’s Nikkei 225 rose to 70,683.98 yen, recovering to the 70,000 yen level at the close.
However, what was important in today’s market was not just that it “exceeded 70,000 yen.”
On the TSE Prime Market, the number of rising stocks significantly outperformed, with 30 out of 33 sectors gaining. On the other hand, about 80% of the Nikkei 225’s rise can be explained by the top five stocks in terms of contribution.
In other words, today was a market where
buying spread across the entire market.
But the force pushing up the index was still concentrated in a few large-cap stocks. That was the nature of the market.
The background includes the NASDAQ hitting a record high, the rise in AI stocks led by NVIDIA, the easing of concerns over additional US interest rate hikes, and the decline in crude oil prices. Reuters
On the other hand, US long-term interest rates remain at a high level, and speculation about additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan remains in Japan. Reuters
Therefore, from now on, rather than simply watching “whether it can maintain 70,000 yen,” it is more important to watch these three points: Will AI companies’ profit growth continue?
Can they withstand high interest rates?
And will buying remain across the entire market, not just in a few stocks?
These three points are more important to watch.
Kioxia has retreated from the top spot in trading value for the first time in a while, and the unusual trading volume seen previously has calmed down a bit. I will not chase it further today, but I want to continue checking it as a change in supply and demand.
Summary of this article
More than the recovery to the 70,000 yen level, the fact that buying remained at that level is significant.
However, to judge whether the market has truly moved to the next level, the index alone is not enough.
From now on, look at these four things together: stock price, corporate earnings, interest rates, and market breadth
Rather than being surprised by the 70,000 yen figure, look at “why it is being bought at that price.” In the current market, I think that is the most important thing.
Thank you for joining me until the end today as well.
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