Tesla Stock Rises as SpaceX Merger Talk Fuels Near-Term Upside

HSBC raised its Tesla price target to USD 157 from USD 125 but kept its Reduce rating. The updated target still implies substantial downside from current levels.

The firm noted that quarterly production trailed deliveries by about 23,000 vehicles. HSBC said that gap could point toward slower expected sales or reflect summer factory shutdowns. Energy-storage deployments also missed HSBC’s expectations. The result came 19% below Visible Alpha consensus and 24% below HSBC’s estimate, leading the firm to cut its full-year deployment forecast.

Morningstar offered a stronger valuation view. It maintained a USD 450 fair value estimate and described Tesla as slightly undervalued at current levels.

Its earnings watchlist includes robotaxi expansion, Cybercab, Full Self-Driving version 15 and Optimus. Those projects remain central to Tesla’s shift beyond traditional vehicle manufacturing. Tesla’s semiconductor plans also drew attention after Elon Musk acknowledged discussions involving Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Terafab, Tesla’s project with SpaceX.

Musk said discussions had taken place and indicated that an agreement could eventually emerge. A report cited potential factory ownership, equity contributions, purchasing commitments or TSMC manufacturing expertise.

Retail sentiment also improved. Stocktwits data showed Tesla sentiment moving to bullish from neutral as 24-hour message volume jumped 374%. Some users pointed to Cybercab deployment, robotaxi expansion and AI development as potential drivers. Meanwhile, Tesla shares remain down about 16% this year and trail their Magnificent Seven peers.