[US Stock Investment Diary] The Bull Market is Just Beginning! 5 Reasons Why QQQ is Heading to 800 Amidst the Semiconductor Explosion and Meta's Strong Pursuit_817
Hello everyone! This is an investment diary tracking the daily US stock market and the latest technology trends.
Are you feeling anxious, thinking, “Aren’t recent stock prices too high?” or “Isn’t a correction coming soon?”
To give you the conclusion first, the current US stock market (especially AI, semiconductors, and large-cap tech) bull market is “just getting started.”
The macro environment’s peak fear has already passed, and the explosion in semiconductor demand has been proven by actual data. Furthermore, the valuations of giants like NVIDIA and Meta remain surprisingly cheap when factoring in their growth rates.
In this article, I will explain in detail with data the “5 decisive reasons” why I believe the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) will break through the 800 milestone by the end of the year!
This article is not investment advice.
It is strictly the author’s opinion.
Please make actual investment decisions based on your own judgment.
The “Semiconductor Demand Explosion” proven by data and the shift in the macro environment
South Korean export data hits an all-time high! Global chip demand seen in actual data
Beyond market rumors and expectations, actual “data” proves the global explosion in semiconductor demand.
In the “South Korean export data (preliminary figures),” which investors around the world watch as a leading indicator for the semiconductor industry, semiconductor export values have reached record highs. Large-scale shipments to the US, particularly of NAND flash memory and cutting-edge memory chips, are surging.
This is not just a temporary boom, but solid proof that real-demand investment in AI infrastructure by big tech companies around the world is in full swing.
“Peak Fear” has passed and the tailwind of falling US interest rates
The macro-level uncertainty that was suppressing the stock market is also rapidly heading toward resolution.
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Easing caution regarding the CPI (Consumer Price Index)
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Retreat of excessive concerns regarding the Fed’s monetary policy
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Easing of tensions in the Middle East (such as improvements in oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz)
The “peak fear” that had enveloped the market has already passed. The US 10-year Treasury yield has peaked and is trending downward toward the 4% level.
The market had previously priced in an overly hawkish scenario of “about 3.1 additional rate hikes by next September,” but it is becoming increasingly likely that the actual number of hikes will be lower than that. This correction of excessive interest rate expectations is a powerful tailwind for the stock market.
Undervalued semiconductor stocks and the “Hardware 2.0” rally
Uncovering the Astonishing Undervaluation via PEG Ratio (The Shock of NVIDIA at 0.65x)
When stock prices rise, they are often called ‘overvalued,’ but when viewed through the PEG ratio (PER ÷ earnings growth rate)—a stock indicator that accounts for a company’s earnings growth—a completely different picture emerges.
Generally, a PEG ratio of ‘1.0x or less’ is considered undervalued, and the current status of major semiconductor stocks is as follows.
Hardware stocks like AMD and Dell are being bought strongly, but they remain neglected in terms of valuations adjusted for growth rates. This serves as a powerful foundation for the next-generation rally known as ‘Hardware 2.0’.
If NVIDIA Breaks Through the $227 Resistance Line, It Will Accelerate Toward ‘Over $300’
Technically, a decisive moment is approaching for NVIDIA stock, which is the driving force of the entire market.
If it can clearly break through the $227 mark, which acts as a strong resistance line on the chart, technical buying will avalanche, creating a scenario where it rapidly rises to over $300 in the short term.
NVIDIA’s awakening will not be limited to individual stocks, but will likely lift the stock price levels of the entire hardware and semiconductor sector at once.
A Fierce Counterattack by Large-Cap Tech Stocks! Meta and the AI x Robotics Revolution
The Strengths of Meta with 3.2 Billion Daily Users and the AI Agent ‘Metamuse’
In the application layer built on top of semiconductor infrastructure, Meta, a member of GAFAM, has also begun a fierce counterattack.
Meta’s greatest strength is its overwhelming active user base of 3.2 billion daily through Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and others. Its advanced AI agent ‘Metamuse’ is rapidly spreading here.
In the future, as AI agents begin to handle users’ daily searches and online orders, the advertising value of ‘platforms that users visit directly for entertainment purposes (such as Facebook and YouTube)’ will see a relatively explosive increase.
The Potential of ‘$1,470–$1,900’ Stock Price Driven by 20% EPS Growth
Wall Street’s average growth forecast for Meta is around 15.6%, but it is estimated that the actual EPS (earnings per share) growth rate will reach around 20% on average.
The current stock price level in the $700 range does not fully incorporate future earnings growth at all. If an appropriate valuation is applied, it holds the potential (upside) for the stock price to rise to the $1,470–$1,900 range in the future.
The ‘Next Growth Curve’ Drawn by Next-Generation Reuben Chips and Humanoid Robots
The evolution of AI is rapidly spilling over from within the screen (software) into the real world (hardware and physical space).
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Evolution of AI Infrastructure: In addition to ultra-high-speed chips from NVIDIA and Cerebras, the emergence of the next-generation “Rubin” chip, which achieves 10 times the output of previous models, is dramatically expanding the bandwidth and productivity of AI infrastructure.
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Convergence of AI and Robotics: Moves toward full-scale production of the Tesla Semi (EV truck) and the acceleration of deep learning for humanoid robots by Figure AI.
With the integration of AI and robotics, we have entered a phase where global productivity is being physically raised.
[Conclusion] QQQ to Break Through 800 by Year-End! How Individual Investors Should Position Themselves Now
Roadmap for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) to Break Through 800 by Year-End
When we synthesize the five factors explained so far, the conclusion is extremely clear.
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Backing by actual semiconductor demand data
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Undervaluation of hardware stocks (PEG ratio)
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Tailwinds from the macro environment and interest rates
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Profit growth of Big Tech, represented by Meta
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Productivity revolution through next-generation chips and robotics
With these factors overlapping, the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) is expected to break through the major 800 milestone by the end of the year. Contrary to concerns that “the bull market is already over,” this bull market has “only just begun.”
The investment strategy we should adopt now
Letting go of your positions due to short-term, localized noise or minor stock price corrections is the most wasteful choice you can make.
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Thoroughly buying the dips: Correction phases are the perfect time to pick up shares.
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Holding core stocks: Continue to firmly hold AI hegemony stocks like NVIDIA and Meta, as well as indices like QQQ/S&P 500.
Let’s ride the wave of this historic bull market and significantly grow our assets!