October 7 (Wed) US Stock Market After-Hours Review
Major indices rise, but semiconductors show selective trends.
Broadcom, AMD, and Marvell rise, while memory and manufacturing equipment stocks fall.
On October 6, the US stock market saw all major indices rise.
The NY Dow was +0.49%,
NASDAQ was +0.45%,
S&P 500 was +0.58%,
NASDAQ 100 was +0.48%.
On the other hand,
the Russell 2000 was -0.59%.
In other words, the market as a whole was not bought uniformly;
it is a market favoring large-cap growth and AI-related stocks.
The same applies to semiconductors.
The SOX index rose to
13,217.82, +0.34%,
but looking at the components, there is a significant divergence.
US major indices on October 6. NASDAQ, S&P 500, and FANG+ rose.
Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 fell, highlighting the dominance of large-cap stocks.
There are 5 key points this morning.
1. US major indices rose.
2. The SOX index is also +0.34%, but there is significant strength and weakness within the semiconductor sector.
3. AI network and ASIC-related stocks like Broadcom, AMD, Marvell, and Arista are strong.
4. Memory and storage-related stocks like Micron, SK hynix, Seagate, and Western Digital are weak.
5. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.28%, and the VIX dropped to 15.01.
In short,
the indices are strong, but the semiconductor sector is not seeing a broad rally.
1. US market favors large-cap stocks
All major indices rose.
The NYSE FANG+ was +0.77%.
Capital inflows into large-cap AI and technology stocks continue.
On the other hand,
the Russell 2000 was -0.59%.
This difference also shows that
the market is centered on large-cap tech.
In the Japanese market as well,
the environment is one where large-cap semiconductor stocks and stocks with high index weighting are likely to have an advantage.
2. Semiconductors are in a selective market, not a “broad rally”
This is the most important point today.
The SOX index was positive at +0.34%.
However, looking at individual stocks, the polarization is quite clear.
Stocks that rose include
Broadcom +4.00%,
AMD +2.91%,
Marvell +5.61%,
Arista Networks +4.25%,
Cisco +4.52%,
Dell +4.03%.
On the other hand,
Micron -1.76%,
SK hynix -6.14%,
KLA -4.39%,
Lam Research -3.56%,
Applied Materials -2.11%,
ASML -1.41%,
Seagate -9.05%,
Western Digital -6.74%.
Memory, storage, and manufacturing equipment stocks are weak.
In other words,
capital is gathering in AI network and custom ASIC stocks, while profit-taking selling has occurred in memory and equipment stocks.
That is the structure.
Semiconductors are not a monolith.
While Broadcom, AMD, and Marvell rose,
Micron, SK hynix, KLA, Lam Research, and Applied Materials fell.
3. NVIDIA saw a small gain; the spotlight is spreading to peripherals
NVIDIA saw a small gain of +0.25%.
It did not rise significantly. Rather, this time,
Broadcom,
AMD,
Marvell,
Arista Networks,
Cisco,
and others in AI networking, custom ASICs, and data center peripherals are seeing capital spread to them.
This is important.
It means the center of AI investment is not just GPUs, but is expanding to
networking,
ASICs,
communications,
and servers.
Looking at Japanese stocks, we should not just look at Advantest, but also be aware of peripheral fields such as
Fujikura,
Furukawa Electric,
Sumitomo Electric,
Ibiden,
and Resonac.
4. Meanwhile, memory and storage are weak.
Micron -1.76%,
SK hynix -6.14%,
SanDisk -2.42%,
Western Digital -6.74%,
Seagate -9.05%.
Memory and storage-related stocks have become quite weak.
In terms of Japanese stocks, this is an area that is likely to become a headwind for
Kioxia.
Has the HBM demand itself collapsed, or is it just profit-taking?
We need to distinguish between these.
5. Manufacturing equipment stocks are also weak
This morning,
KLA -4.39%,
Lam Research -3.56%,
Applied Materials -2.11%,
ASML -1.41%,
semiconductor manufacturing equipment stocks fell.
For today’s Japanese stocks, this is somewhat of a headwind for
Tokyo Electron,
SCREEN,
KOKUSAI ELECTRIC,
Lasertec,
and others.
Looking only at the SOX index, it is +0.34%, so
one might tend to judge that “semiconductors are strong.”
However, in reality,
equipment stocks are quite weak.
This is something to be very careful about before the market opens today.
6. Interest rates are down, and VIX is also down
The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 5.28%.
The US 2-year Treasury is at
4.795%,
the US 5-year Treasury is at
5.034%,
and the VIX fell to 15.01, down 3.29% from the previous day.
In other words,
anxiety in the stock market has calmed down significantly.
The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.28%. The VIX dropped to 15.01, and risk aversion has receded.
7. Dollar-Yen is in the 158 range
The dollar-yen is at 158.155 yen.
The trend of a weak yen continues.
This is a tailwind for Japanese stocks, especially export-oriented stocks.
If the yen’s depreciation progresses too far, expectations for additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and concerns about currency intervention by the government and the BOJ will intensify.
8. WTI is at 90 dollars
WTI crude oil futures rose to 90.00 dollars,
up 0.63% from the previous day.
Crude oil prices temporarily fell to around 87 dollars,
but have since returned to 90 dollars.
If crude oil rises again,
it could create a headwind for
AI and semiconductor stocks
through the path of
inflation
↓
interest rates
↓
growth stocks.
The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.28%, and the VIX also declined. Meanwhile, WTI has returned to 90 dollars, so caution is needed regarding a resurgence of inflation.
9. Impact on today’s Japanese stocks
I believe the Japanese market will be firm in terms of indices today.
The reasons are:
rise in major US indices,
rise in NASDAQ,
rise in FANG+,
lower interest rates,
and lower VIX.
However, caution is required regarding the specifics of semiconductors.
Stocks that look strong in Japan today are:
Advantest,
AI network-related,
and data center-related.
Stocks to be cautious of are:
Tokyo Electron,
SCREEN,
Lasertec,
and Kioxia.
Especially for manufacturing equipment stocks,
since KLA, Lam Research, and Applied Materials in the US were weak,
I want to check the reaction at the opening.
10. This morning’s US stock rankings
In this morning’s rankings,
the top gainers were:
CEG +12.25%,
VST +10.77%,
ASTS +8.01%,
ALAB +7.58%.
The top losers were:
STX -9.19%,
MRNA -7.73%,
WDC -6.93%,
SK hynix -6.41%,
KLA -4.54%.
AI infrastructure and power-related stocks are strong, while storage, memory, and equipment are weak
While AI infrastructure and power-related stocks are rising, STX, WDC, SK hynix, and KLA have fallen significantly. There is strong selectivity in buying.
Today’s Conclusion
Looking only at the indices, today’s US market is very strong.
Looking at the details, there is significant selectivity.
Broadcom,
AMD,
Marvell,
Arista,
Cisco,
AI networking, ASIC, and infrastructure-related stocks are strong.
Memory and storage stocks like
Micron,
SK hynix,
Seagate,
Western Digital,
and manufacturing equipment stocks like
KLA,
Lam Research,
Applied Materials,
and ASML are weak.
Therefore, for today’s Japanese stocks,
It is a day to look at which AI processes are being bought, rather than ‘buying all semiconductors’.
In particular,
Advantest,
AI networking,
optical communications,
and data centers
remain in focus.
On the other hand,
I would like to carefully check
manufacturing equipment and memory-related stocks
from the opening.
To maintain the Nikkei 225 at the 70,000 yen level, the movement of large-cap semiconductor stocks remains important today.
—
*This article is an analysis based on public information and market data as of early morning on October 7.
It does not recommend the buying or selling of specific stocks.