US Market Lens | Large-cap stocks hit record highs. Lower interest rates provide support [October 7, 2026]

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite hit record closing highs. The decline in long-term interest rates and expectations for corporate earnings served as factors supporting stock prices.

However, small-cap stocks declined. The key takeaway today is that while large-cap stocks are strong, not all stocks rose in the same way.

Index Lens | Major three indices rose, small-cap stocks fell

・S&P 500 Index
AP: 7,818.93
Change: +44.98 (approx. +0.58%)
Reuters: 7,818.95
Change: +45.00 (+0.58%)

・Dow Jones Industrial Average
AP: 51,521.28
Change: +253.38 (approx. +0.49%)
Reuters: 51,521.04
Change: +253.14 (+0.49%)

・Nasdaq Composite Index
Close: 27,599.79
Change: +122.48 (approx. +0.45%)
The closing values and point changes match between both news agencies.

There is a difference of 0.02 points for the S&P 500 and 0.24 points for the Dow. Since the cause of the discrepancy and the final confirmed values from the index providers have not been verified, both companies’ figures are listed.Reuters

・Russell 2000 Index
Close: 2,830.30
Change: -16.84 (approx. -0.59%)

The figure for small-cap stocks is a reference value based on AP reports, and verification with a second independent source is incomplete.

For beginners, do not judge the entire market solely by the rise in major indices; please also check the stocks and sectors you hold.

Capital Lens | Long-term interest rates fell, dollar also softened

・US 10-Year Treasury Yield
October 5: 5.31%
October 6: 5.27%
Change: -0.04 points

This is the daily published value from the US Department of the Treasury. The Wall Street Journal also reported a decline to 5.27%. Meanwhile, Reuters market reports indicate 5.28%. Because observation times and calculation methods differ, these are not treated as the same figure.U.S. Department of the Treasury

When interest rates fall, it works to reduce corporate borrowing burdens and the discount rate used to evaluate future earnings. Therefore, it can act as a factor supporting stock prices.

However, interest rate declines can also occur due to concerns about economic deterioration. It is not always the case that “lower interest rates mean higher stock prices.”

・Dollar
According to Reuters, the dollar index against major currencies fell by approximately 0.3%. This is reference information, as the value at the same point in time could not be confirmed by another independent source.

・Crude Oil
The settlement price for North Sea crude oil futures was $100.58. It rose approximately 0.3% from the previous day.

The Reuters report of approximately $100.6 and the Wall Street Journal report of $100.58 are consistent within rounding ranges. After the previous day’s decline, crude oil showed generally stable movement.

・Sector movements
According to Reuters, 10 out of 11 sectors in the large-cap 500 index rose, with utilities leading the gains. This sector-by-sector breakdown has not been independently verified.

Note that stock price increases by sector are distinct from actual capital inflows into investment trusts and similar vehicles. Since we have not checked the statistics on capital inflow amounts this time, this is explained as price movement.

Risk Lens | Earnings expectations and uncertainty regarding prices

Market interest is shifting toward corporate earnings, which are about to enter full swing. The Associated Press and Reuters report on the rise of Constellation Energy, which announced a power supply contract for Google.

Investment in artificial intelligence involves not only semiconductors but also power and equipment. However, expectations for demand do not necessarily translate directly into profits. In earnings reports, we want to check not only sales but also the burden of capital investment and profit margins.

Uncertainty regarding crude oil prices and inflation also remains. We cannot conclude that these concerns have been resolved just because interest rates fell for one day.

Next items to watch

・October 7: New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
11:00 AM ET
12:00 AM JST, October 8

・October 8: Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
9:30 PM JST, October 8

The schedule was confirmed via the official New York Fed calendar. The schedule is subject to change.

The US is currently in daylight saving time. The next regular trading session is from 10:30 PM JST on October 7 to 5:00 AM JST on October 8.

Review of previous forecasts

We compare the previous forecast for the October 6 closing price with the actual results. We use the Associated Press figure of 7,818.93 for the actual result. The judgment remains the same using the Reuters figure.

・Bullish: 7,810–7,900
The actual result was within the range.

・Base: 7,710–7,810
The actual result exceeded the upper limit by 8.93 points.

・Bearish: 7,590–7,710
The actual result was above the range.

The result was stronger than the base scenario we centered on.

The condition for the bullish scenario, ‘a stabilization in the rise of long-term interest rates,’ is consistent with the fact that interest rates actually fell. However, this alone does not explain all the reasons for the rise.

Next forecast | Three scenarios for the October 7 closing price

The following is not definitive information but a conditional forecast. The benchmark is 7,818.93 as reported by the Associated Press. The numerical ranges are our own assumptions and are not statistical confidence intervals.

Bullish Scenario

Expected closing price: 7,850–7,940
Change from recent close: +0.40% to +1.55%

This assumes that long-term interest rates do not rise again and expectations for corporate earnings continue. If small-cap stocks also trend upward in addition to large-cap stocks, it will be easier to confirm the breadth of the rally.

Base Scenario

Expected closing price: 7,770–7,850
Change from recent close: -0.63% to +0.40%

This is our central scenario. We anticipate a tug-of-war between profit-taking after the new highs and dip-buying, with the market searching for direction near the recent closing price.

Bearish Scenario

Expected closing price: 7,650–7,770
Change from recent close: -2.16% to -0.63%

This assumes scenarios such as long-term interest rates returning to the previous day’s level of around 5.31%, rising crude oil prices, or a retreat in expectations for corporate earnings. If selling spreads to large-cap tech stocks, downward pressure could intensify.

Today’s Analysis

Today, the ‘new highs in large-cap stocks’ and ‘falling long-term interest rates’ coincided. Meanwhile, small-cap stocks are declining.

In the next trading session, let’s look beyond the headlines about new highs and focus on the direction of interest rates and whether the gains spread to other stocks.

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