Will the US-Canada trade war sway elections in border state battlegrounds? What Michigan voters said

DETROIT —

President Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada shows no signs of letting up ahead of midterm elections, at a time when the balance of power in the Senate hinges on races along the border between the United States and its northern neighbor.

In a new campaign ad posted on Wednesday, Michigan’s GOP nominee, Mike Rogers, became the latest swing-state Republican to distance himself from the president on the issue. His Democratic opponent, Abdul El Seyed, has spoken out against the tariffs for months.

Before the ad was released, we spoke to Michiganders on the newly opened Gordie Howe International Bridge, a 1.5-mile crossing that connects Windsor, Ontario, to Detroit, Michigan. Hundreds of millions of dollars in trade move through the corridor each day, but now, those economic bonds are being tested by the trade war.

“Well, I think it’s stupid. I mean, what are we fighting about?” said Steve Leonard, a Democrat voter.

“Especially for our dairy products, things like that, we were being overcharged, nobody likes to be overcharged, and it didn’t just happen for a couple of months. It’s been going on for years and years and years,” said Earl Elliott, a Republican voter.

That’s what Trump argued when he launched the latest phase of the trade war in August by slapping 50% tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian imports, which Canada soon matched dollar for dollar on U.S. products. The retaliatory cycle has continued since, ramping up tensions that were already high over Trump’s earlier duties on major cross-border industries like steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber.

“Whether a two-by-four is $2 or $5, I don’t know, and I don’t blame that on the trade war,” said Bruce Francis, who said he’s still undecided in the Senate race.

Allen Silver, who plans to back Rogers, said the trade relationship with Canada needed to be “adjusted,” but he is concerned about added costs from the tariffs.

“I think everyone is,” Silver said. “I look at the younger people, and right now, housing is expensive for people. You know, for cars and stuff, everything has gone up in price, and the trade war has something to do with that, you know, being that we are in Detroit.”

A recent analysis from the conservative group Advancing American Freedom Foundation found that Michigan is among the states that could be hit hardest by the feud based on its annual trade with Canada, alongside other border states like Maine and Ohio. All three are home to some of the midterm’s most competitive Senate races.

In Ohio, Republican Senator Jon Husted has defended the president’s pursuit of a better deal with Canada. The Democratic nominee, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, described the tariffs on Canada as a disaster.

Like Rogers in Michigan, Maine’s Republican Senator Susan Collins has called for an end to the tariff war with Canada, though the state’s Democratic nominee, Troy Jackson, argues she has not gone far enough in her opposition.

A POLITICO poll finds about a quarter of Americans believe Trump was right to introduce new tariffs on Canada, while more than half feel he was wrong. Even among self-described “MAGA Trump voters” who support his tariff strategy, 40% said he should’ve waited until after the midterms to avoid jeopardizing elections in border states like Michigan and Maine.

Yet the Michigan voters we spoke to said that the trade war with Canada wouldn’t impact their decision-making.

“I don’t think that the trade war is impacting my vote, but you know I’m more of a conservative-leaning voter,” said John Vanalst.

“I don’t like Trump. I don’t like any of his policies. I think he is destroying the country and the world. So I’m gonna vote democratic no matter what,” Leonard said.

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