Tesla. Elon Musk. The next 20 years transformed by AI, Robotaxi, and Optimus | All-Country Stock Analysis #53
When people hear the name Tesla, most likely think of the electric vehicle manufacturer that makes the Model 3 and Model Y. In fact, while the automotive business remains at the core of Tesla today, the direction the company is aiming for can no longer be explained by EVs alone.
In the “Master Plan Part IV” released in 2025, Tesla clearly identified bringing AI into the real world as its next growth axis. It is attempting to develop FSD, the autonomous Robotaxi, the dedicated Cybercab vehicle, the humanoid robot Optimus, and its battery storage business into a single system driven by manufacturing technology and AI.Tesla
A product that symbolizes this strategy is the Cybercab, which was unveiled for the first time in Japan in September 2026. Tesla Japan held the Cybercab Japan Tour across four venues in Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, showcasing a two-seater vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals. This can be seen as more than just an exhibition of a new car; it is a product that demonstrates how Tesla envisions the future of “mobility.”Tesla
In this report, after organizing Tesla’s history from its founding to the present, I will analyze what kind of person Elon Musk is, how SpaceX and Tesla are connected, and what technical architecture supports Tesla’s development speed. Furthermore, in the paid section, I will delve into Robotaxi, Optimus, Energy, scenarios for 2040 and 2050, and how Japanese companies should engage with Tesla. *Terminology is explained on the final page.
The Origins of Tesla
Tesla was founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard, Marc Tarpenning, and others. While there is a strong impression that Tesla is a company founded by Elon Musk, Musk joined the company in 2004, led the initial large-scale funding round to become Chairman of the Board, and has served as CEO since 2008. While he is undoubtedly the central figure who shaped the current Tesla, the company’s origins cannot be explained by a single founder alone.
Tesla’s first mass-produced car was the Roadster, which appeared in 2008. The company adopted a phased strategy: starting with high-end sports EVs, investing the accumulated capital and technology into the Model S and Model X, and finally expanding to mass-market vehicles like the Model 3 and Model Y.
This philosophy is also reflected in the Master Plan that Tesla has published since its early days. It was a method of not mass-producing low-priced EVs from the start, but rather starting with high-priced, low-volume products, and then expanding the price range after accumulating technology, brand power, and production capacity.
This strategy was not just about product deployment. It was also a highly realistic capital allocation strategy for entering the automotive industry, which carries a heavy burden of capital investment.
Elon Musk – Profile –
I believe it is difficult to understand Elon Musk through Tesla alone. While serving as CEO of Tesla, he has been involved in the management of SpaceX since 2002 and has launched multiple companies such as The Boring Company and Neuralink. Prior to that, he was involved in online payment businesses that led to Zip2 and PayPal.Tesla Investor Relations
One of the concepts that characterizes Musk’s management style is “first principles.” Instead of taking the common sense of existing industries or the structure of existing products for granted, this method involves breaking them down to the necessary functions or physical constraints and redesigning the product from there.
In the case of Tesla, they did not just think about electrifying conventional cars; they broke down everything from batteries, motors, and chassis to software and manufacturing processes, and rebuilt them into an optimal structure for an EV. At SpaceX, the same logic is applied to changing the cost of rocket launches by reusing rockets, which were previously assumed to be disposable.
What both companies have in common is not just developing excellent products, but an attitude of trying to change the cost structure and design philosophy of the entire industry.
SpaceX
SpaceX is a space company founded by Musk in 2002 that develops rockets, spacecraft, and the satellite communication service Starlink. In particular, the reuse of the Falcon series of rockets has had a significant impact on reducing the cost of space transportation.
While Tesla and SpaceX are separate legal entities, both companies share a common technical philosophy: deeply understanding hardware in-house, integrating it with software, and lowering costs through mass production and continuous improvement.
And by 2026, that relationship has expanded beyond just philosophy into actual transactions and capital ties. In the first half of 2026, Tesla recorded $405 million in sales from Megapack sales to SpaceX and others, and in March of the same year, it invested $2 billion in SpaceX stock. Although Tesla’s equity stake is less than 1%, it is clear that the relationship between Tesla and SpaceX has become more concrete than before.SEC
The important point is that holding Tesla stock does not mean holding SpaceX itself. While the two companies share management and some technical philosophies, they must be considered separately as investment targets.
Tesla’s Corporate Vision
To understand Tesla’s current direction, the “Master Plan Part IV” is a crucial document. In it, Tesla outlines its next growth phase: combining manufacturing technology with autonomous driving technology to bring AI into the real world.Tesla
The traditional Tesla was often described as a company reducing reliance on fossil fuels through EVs and energy products. It has now moved a step beyond that, aiming to boost the productivity of “transportation,” “labor,” and “energy” itself through FSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus.
Considering this shift, it is becoming increasingly difficult to evaluate Tesla solely as an automaker. While automobiles remain its largest business, the company is moving closer to becoming a Physical AI firm that combines hardware and AI.
Tesla Japan and the Japanese Market
Tesla sells the Model 3 and Model Y in Japan and has deployed Superchargers, service centers, and retail locations. However, in the Japanese market, due to the strength of domestic manufacturers’ sales networks and hybrid vehicles, Tesla does not hold the same overwhelming presence it has in the West or China.
The fact that the Cybercab was unveiled for the first time in Japan in September 2026 is an interesting event for observing Tesla’s future. The Cybercab is a two-seater vehicle designed from the ground up for unmanned taxi use, and Tesla’s official website explicitly states that it has no steering wheel or pedals.Tesla
The Cybercab, showcased at four venues in Aoyama (Tokyo), Osaka, Nagoya, and Shinjuku, does not mean that a Robotaxi service has launched in Japan. At this stage, it is primarily for exhibition, and to actually deploy unmanned driving services within Japan, several regulatory aspects must be cleared, including the Road Vehicle Act, safety standards, autonomous driving regulations, and liability frameworks.
Even so, the significance of bringing a “vehicle not intended for human operation” into the Japanese automotive market is not small. Tesla is beginning to design not just vehicle performance, but “transportation services themselves” as a product.
From here on, we will consider whether “Tesla is a buy as an investment.”
As we have seen, Tesla is no longer just a simple EV manufacturer. While expanding its business scope to include autonomous driving, Robotaxi, Optimus, energy, and AI computing infrastructure, it is attempting to integrate multiple technologies into a single system centered on the car.
However, one important question remains.
“Given that much potential, is the current Tesla stock really at a buyable level?”
Being an interesting company and being an attractive investment are not the same thing. No matter how dreamy the technology, if it is not accompanied by profits, the stock price cannot be sustained; conversely, if one looks only at current profits, one might underestimate the next businesses Tesla is pursuing.
From here on, we will not end with Tesla being just an “amazing company,” but will evaluate it as an investment target from both the perspectives of numbers and business structure.
We will organize how much the current valuation incorporates the future by checking the latest earnings, including revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, capital expenditure, FSD contract numbers, sales volume, stock price, P/E ratio, and market capitalization.
Furthermore, we will delve into whether the Robotaxi will truly generate profit, whether Optimus can become the next massive business, where Tesla’s technological advantage lies, and what kind of company Tesla might become in 2040 or 2050.
“Is Tesla’s stock price too high? Or is it still being viewed too much as just an automaker?”
This is the question I most wanted to think about in this article.
This is the main part of the Tesla analysis.