Next Week's Market Calendar | How Will the Dollar-Yen and Stock Prices Move with US CPI and Retail Sales? Key Events for October 12th–16th and 3 Points I'm Watching
*This article organizes economic events and key points for the following week based on information available as of October 11, 2026.
*Release dates and market forecasts for economic indicators are subject to change. Please check official announcements for the latest information.
*This is not a recommendation to buy or sell specific currencies or stocks. FX and stock investments carry the risk of loss. Please make your own investment decisions.
What are you watching in the market next week? 🐾
Sunday evening.
Since work starts again tomorrow, I am checking the economic events for next week.
When you continue with FX and stock investing, new news comes out almost every day.
US interest rates, prices, crude oil prices, corporate earnings…
Honestly, it is not easy to keep up with all the information while working.
That is why I value organizing ‘what is important for next week’ on Sundays.
The focus for next week, October 12th–16th, is on US prices and personal consumption.
What I am particularly interested in are:
-
US CPI on Wednesday, October 14th
-
US PPI on Thursday, October 15th
-
US Retail Sales on Thursday, October 15th
These three.
All of these are economic indicators that have the potential to change the outlook for future US interest rates.
And their impact can spread not only to the dollar-yen but also to Japanese and US stocks.
‘Why does the market move so much when economic indicators are released?’
I would like to organize the key points for next week together so that even those who have that question can understand. 🧸
1. First, let’s check! Market calendar for October 12th to 16th
First, let’s check the important economic events for next week in chronological order.
All times are in Japan Standard Time.
October 12 (Mon)
Japan: Sports Day, Japanese stock spot market is closed
US: Columbus Day (Federal Holiday)
The US bond market is scheduled to be closed, but the stock market is scheduled to be open for regular trading.
Note that since futures and options, which are also subject to this in Japan, have holiday trading, not all markets will be closed.
Even if the Japanese stock spot market is closed, the dollar-yen and US stocks will move.
I want to check the reaction of the foreign exchange market and the US market at the beginning of the week.
October 13 (Tue)
8:50 Japan: September Corporate Goods Price Index ★★☆
This is an indicator to check how the prices of goods traded between companies are changing.
It serves as material for looking at price trends for raw materials and energy.
Since service prices for companies are examined in a separate statistic, we consider this separately from this Corporate Goods Price Index.
October 14 (Wed)
21:30 US: September Consumer Price Index (CPI) ★★★
21:30 US: September Real Wages
This is the event I am paying the most attention to next week.
Is the pace of price increases higher than expected, or is it settling down?
Depending on the results, US interest rates, the dollar-yen, and stock prices could move significantly.
Thursday, October 15
21:30 US September Producer Price Index (PPI) ★★☆
21:30 US September Retail Sales ★★★
21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims
Important indicators will be released at the same time on Thursday.
It is a day to check both producer-side prices and the strength of US personal consumption.
Friday, October 16
21:30 US September Import and Export Price Index ★☆☆
22:15 US September Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization ★☆☆
US economic indicators will continue through the weekend.
Industrial production, in particular, serves as data to confirm production activities in sectors like US manufacturing.
※ The importance stars are my own personal guide and do not guarantee the actual magnitude of market movement.
For next week, if you just remember 21:30 on Wednesday and Thursday, it will be easier to keep track of the important events.
② The biggest focus for next week is the US CPI
Why does the dollar-yen move when US prices rise?
CPI stands for ‘Consumer Price Index’.
Simply put, it is a number that shows how much the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the US are changing.
For example,
-
the price of groceries
-
Gasoline prices
-
Rent
-
Medical and service fees
They examine changes in these broad ranges of prices.
How was the previous CPI?
The US CPI for August, released on September 11th, showed the following results:
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Headline CPI: +3.4% year-on-year
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Headline CPI: +0.4% month-on-month
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Core CPI: +2.4% year-on-year
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Core CPI: +0.3% month-on-month
*Month-on-month figures are seasonally adjusted, while year-on-year figures are not.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released September 11, 2026
I am particularly interested in the fact that the headline CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month.
Rising gasoline prices and other factors pushed up price levels.
Meanwhile, the ‘Core CPI’ is a price index that excludes food and energy, which are prone to significant price fluctuations.
If crude oil prices rise sharply, it tends to affect the headline CPI, but that does not necessarily mean the core CPI will rise in the same way.
Therefore, I want to pay attention not only to the headline CPI but also to changes in the core CPI.
Why does CPI affect USD/JPY?
This is where the Federal Reserve (FRB), the US central bank, becomes important.
The FRB adjusts policy interest rates with the goal of maintaining price stability and other objectives.
In fact, at the FOMC meeting on September 16, 2026, the policy interest rate was raised by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75–4.00%.
Source: FRB: September 16, 2026 FOMC Statement
In other words, the current focus is on whether additional interest rate hikes are necessary or if rates can be held steady.
Therefore, I will organize three possible patterns based on the CPI results.
Pattern A: If the inflation rate is higher than market expectations
If prices are rising more than expected, the possibility that the Fed will consider additional rate hikes will be on the radar.
As a result,
US interest rates rise
↓
The dollar becomes easier to buy
↓
Possibility of the dollar-yen rising
This is a potential scenario.
Pattern B: If the inflation rate is lower than market expectations
If the pace of price increases is calmer than expected, concerns about additional rate hikes may ease.
US interest rates fall
↓
The dollar becomes easier to sell
↓
Possibility of the dollar-yen falling
That is the flow.
Pattern C: If it is roughly the same as market expectations
In this case, the direction may not be determined by the numbers alone.
For example, even if the headline CPI is as expected, if the core CPI is higher than expected, the market may react to that instead.
Also, if the market has already anticipated the numbers to some extent, it is possible that the dollar-yen will not rise much even if the results are strong.
What I want to remember here is that “high CPI does not necessarily mean the dollar-yen will rise” is the case.
Actual price movements are also influenced by Japan’s monetary policy and what the market had already anticipated.
I want to check not just the result numbers themselves, but also how the market perceives them after the announcement.
3. PPI and Retail Sales Announced Simultaneously on Thursday
I want to pay attention not only to prices but also to US consumption
Once Wednesday’s CPI is over, there are important announcements the following day, Thursday.
Those are the PPI and retail sales.
What is PPI?
PPI stands for Producer Price Index.
While CPI examines prices from the consumer side, PPI examines price changes at the stage where companies sell goods and services.
For example, if raw material prices rise, companies may raise their selling prices.
Such price changes can also be confirmed through the PPI.
The PPI for August, which was announced last time, was +0.4% month-on-month and +5.4% year-on-year for the final demand index.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) PPI Publication Materials
However, the goods and services covered and their weightings differ between the PPI and CPI.
Since it can take time for price changes to pass through to consumer prices, an increase in PPI does not necessarily mean that CPI will rise by the same margin.
What are retail sales?
Retail sales is an indicator that shows the sales figures for US retail stores, food services, and similar businesses.
It is an important material for observing trends in personal consumption, but it does not cover total consumption, which includes travel and medical care.
Personal consumption plays a major role in the US economy.
Therefore, checking whether consumers continue to spend money is important when considering the state of the economy.
However, there is one thing to keep in mind.
Even if retail sales are increasing, it does not necessarily mean that a large volume of goods is being sold—that is the point.
For example, if a product that cost 100 yen last year costs 110 yen this year.
Even if the sales volume is the same, the sales amount increases by 10%.
In other words, sales can increase simply because prices have risen.
I want to consider not just whether the numbers have increased, but also the background behind them.
Four combinations of prices and consumption
Here, I will consider the combination of the pace of price increases and the strength of consumption.
Note that “prices settling down” here does not mean that the prices themselves are falling, but that the pace of price increases is slowing down.
Also, one indicator alone does not determine the entire state of the economy.
1. Strong inflationary pressure and strong consumption
This is a state where inflationary pressure continues while the economy remains firm.
This may lead to the view that the Fed will maintain high interest rates or consider additional rate hikes.
2. Easing inflationary pressure and strong consumption
While the pace of price increases is slowing, consumption remains sustained.
This can sometimes be received favorably by the stock market, as it suggests that inflation is cooling while the economy remains intact.
③ Strong inflationary pressure and weak consumption
This is a difficult combination where upward pressure on prices continues while consumption weakens.
Concerns about corporate earnings and inflation could rise simultaneously.
④ Easing inflationary pressure and weak consumption
While caution regarding price increases may ease, concerns about an economic slowdown could emerge.
Attention will likely also focus on the Fed’s future policy decisions.
As you can see, the same economic indicators can be viewed in multiple ways.
I believe the important thing is not to judge based on a single number, but to consider prices and the economy as a set.🐾
④ Things to check when looking at USD/JPY
From here, I will organize what I want to check regarding USD/JPY next week.
First, US long-term interest rates.
The first thing I want to check is the US 10-year Treasury yield.
This is a commonly used indicator for considering the movement of long-term interest rates in the US.
The US 10-year Treasury yield on October 9 was generally around 5.24%.
With high interest rates persisting, what will the results of next week’s CPI be?
Will US interest rates rise further, or will they fall?
I want to check this in conjunction with USD/JPY.
However, just because US interest rates rise does not necessarily mean that USD/JPY will rise.
Interest rate trends in Japan and overall market anxiety will also have an impact.
Next, the key price ranges for the dollar-yen
Regarding the dollar-yen, I am also paying attention to last week’s highs and lows.
Movements in the 158 yen range were on our radar in early October, but prices that were important in the past will not necessarily be important next week.
What I want to check is,
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whether it breaks above last week’s high
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whether it falls below last week’s low
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what kind of reaction occurs at key levels like 158 yen
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whether the price action is continuing on the daily or 4-hour charts
these are the points.
In particular, I want to focus not only on the temporary rise or fall immediately after the indicator release, but also on the subsequent price movement.
Finally, the price movement after the announcement
When economic indicators are released, the dollar-yen can move significantly in a short period of time.
However, even if it rises initially, it may turn to a decline a few minutes later.
Therefore, rather than just the direction immediately after the announcement, I want to confirm the flow of:
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which way it moved first
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whether that movement continued
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whether a sudden reversal occurred
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whether it is consistent with the movement of US interest rates
as well.
I place more importance on confirming how the market reacts after an announcement than on trying to predict the results of economic indicators.
Of course, in actual trading, risk management such as stop-loss placement and trade sizing is also essential.
⑤ What is the impact on Japanese and US stocks?
Looking back at last week’s stock market
First, let’s check the closing prices on October 9.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average was 69,030.92 yen.
Although it fell slightly from 69,042.11 yen on October 8, it rose by approximately 1.1% for the week compared to 68,309.46 yen at the end of the previous week.
Meanwhile, US stocks rose on October 9.
For the week, the S&P 500 rose about 1.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose about 0.6%.
It is clear that buying is entering the stock market even with US long-term interest rates at high levels.
However, if the outlook for interest rates changes due to next week’s inflation indicators, it could also affect stock prices.
Impact on Japanese stocks
Some may wonder if the US CPI is directly related to Japanese stocks.
In fact, when the dollar-yen moves due to US inflation indicators, it can also affect Japanese companies.
For example, if the yen weakens, it can be a tailwind for profits for companies like automakers that earn revenue overseas.
Conversely, for companies that import raw materials from overseas, procurement costs may increase.
Trading companies and energy-related firms are also affected by resource prices, not just exchange rates.
Therefore, it is not a simple relationship where a weaker yen means all Japanese stocks will rise.
Impact on US Stocks
For US stocks, I am paying attention to the movement of long-term interest rates.
Generally, when interest rates rise, it can be a headwind for growth stocks that have high expectations for future earnings.
High-tech stocks, in particular, can be sensitive to changes in interest rates.
On the other hand, if the economy is strong, expectations for corporate earnings can sometimes support stock prices.
High-dividend stocks are also not unrelated to rising interest rates.
This is because when bond yields rise, the relative attractiveness of dividend stocks can change.
Those holding ETFs should also check
Changes in the market environment affect not only ETFs linked to the S&P 500 or NASDAQ 100, but also ETFs that prioritize distributions.
In yesterday’s article, I compared the monthly distribution ETFs SPYI, JEPI, and JEPQ.
For these ETFs, it is important to check not only the distributions received but also the price fluctuations of the ETFs themselves.
Having high distributions and making a profit on the overall investment are two different things.
Next week, I will also be watching how changes in interest rates affect US stocks and ETFs.
6. Three things I am paying special attention to next week🍯
I have organized the economic indicators and their impact on the market so far.
Finally, I will summarize the three things I want to check in particular next week.
1. Will US inflation strengthen again?
The first thing I’m concerned about is, as expected, prices.
The settlement price for WTI crude oil futures on October 9, US time, was $91.85 per barrel.
Crude oil prices are fluctuating due to the situation in the Middle East and supply concerns in the US Gulf of Mexico.
If crude oil prices rise, it may affect prices through gasoline costs and transportation expenses.
However, what will be announced this time is the CPI for September.
The changes in crude oil prices that occurred in October will not be directly reflected in the September CPI.
For this CPI, I would like to check the price changes up to September and consider the recent rise in crude oil prices separately as an impact on future prices.
2. Is US consumption resilient?
Next is retail sales.
Even as prices continue to rise, is US consumption maintaining its strength?
This is also important when considering corporate earnings.
However, it is necessary to distinguish whether sales figures have simply increased or if consumer activity itself is strong.
I would like to check not only the announced results but also the revisions to previous figures and the breakdown.
3. How will USD/JPY and US stocks react to the same material?
What I am particularly concerned about is the relationship between interest rates, exchange rates, and stock prices.
For example, if the US CPI is higher than expected.
While the dollar may be bought due to caution over additional interest rate hikes, the stock market may dislike the rise in interest rates.
In other words, the same news can be a factor for a rise in USD/JPY and a factor for a fall in US stocks.
Conversely, if expectations for the economy are strong, stock prices may rise even if interest rates rise.
I would like to organize these market reactions one by one next week.
7. Summary | Focus on Wednesday and Thursday nights next week 🧸
In the market from October 12th to 16th next week, US prices and personal consumption will be major points of focus.
What I want to keep in mind in particular is,
-
October 14 (Wed) 21:30: US CPI
-
October 15 (Thu) 21:30: US PPI
-
October 15 (Thu) 21:30: US Retail Sales
are the three points.
For the dollar-yen, I want to check US interest rates and key price levels, and for Japanese and US stocks, I want to organize the impact of interest rates and exchange rates.
Predicting the results of economic indicators in advance is not easy.
However, I think just knowing what events are scheduled and what to check can change how you approach the market.
As someone who continues to invest while working, I also want to check things one by one without rushing.
Which are you focusing on most next week: the dollar-yen, Japanese stocks, or US stocks?
Please let me know in the comments if you’d like.🐾
Let’s continue to increase our investment knowledge little by little together next week.
*Market data is based on the close of trading on October 9, 2026. Regarding market forecasts for economic indicators, since reliable figures could not be sufficiently confirmed as of October 11, estimated figures are not included.