October 11, 2026

[Unraveling Correlations] Why Does Bitcoin (BTC) Plummet or Surge? — The Chain Reaction of 5.2% US Interest Rates, Nasdaq, Gold, and Spot ETFs, and the Strategy for Next Week …

As of Sunday, October 11, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading around the 1 BTC = approximately $83,000 mark.

For traders who analyze foreign exchange (USD/JPY) and bonds (US Treasury yields) on a daily basis, Bitcoin is an extremely interesting asset.

“Why are there days when Bitcoin doesn’t rise even though high-tech stocks are going up?”

“How does Bitcoin move while gold is being bought due to rising oil prices and the Middle East crisis?”

“Why is there concern about a risk of a sharp drop now that the US 10-year Treasury yield is stuck in the 5.2–5.3% range?”

In conclusion, Bitcoin correlates with “US high-tech stocks and global excess liquidity (money supply) during normal times”, and it is hit directly by “US dollars, interest rates, and deleveraging (forced liquidations) during periods of sudden financial market changes or tightening.” However, this correlation is not fixed, and there are phases where it moves independently due to BTC-specific supply and demand (spot ETF flows and futures open interest).

I have dissected the BTC price formation mechanism using data from US interest rates, Nasdaq, the Dollar Index (DXY), gold (XAU/USD), and spot ETFs, and summarized the practical monitoring procedures for the upcoming US September CPI announcement on October 14th.

Chapter 1: The “Five Major Markets” Highly Correlated with Bitcoin

Before looking at the Bitcoin chart alone, it is necessary to grasp the power dynamics with the following five external markets.

1. US Nasdaq/High-Tech Stocks (Highest Priority Monitoring)

Bitcoin is often treated essentially as a “risk asset” and shares the waves of global risk appetite (risk-on/risk-off) with the Nasdaq. In particular, when market-wide risk tolerance declines due to sharp drops in AI and semiconductor stocks, selling pressure spreads to BTC.

However, in the autumn 2026 market, there have been instances where the correlation temporarily diverged, so it is forbidden to overconfidently assume “Nasdaq up = unconditional BTC buying.”

2. US Dollar Index (DXY)

Because Bitcoin is traded in the “US dollar,” which is the key currency, a strong dollar leads to a sense of relative overvaluation for BTC and acts as a powerful lid that suppresses upside potential.

Conversely, a weak dollar creates an environment that encourages buying, but one must be careful that in phases where “cash (dollar) conversion” progresses due to global credit anxiety, a strong dollar and a sharp drop in BTC can occur simultaneously.

3. US Treasury Yields and Real Interest Rates (US 2-Year and 10-Year Notes)

US 2-Year Treasury Yield: Reflects the Fed’s short-term policy interest rate outlook.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Reflects long-term US fiscal deficits, term premiums, and inflation concerns.

In phases where interest rates rise and the yield on “risk-free assets like US Treasuries” exceeds 5%, the relative appeal of “Bitcoin, which generates no interest at all,” fades, and capital flows into bonds. On the other hand, if the surge in long-term interest rates is driven by “concerns over US fiscal collapse or distrust in the fiat currency (dollar),” an inverse correlation can occur where BTC is bought as a hedge.

4. Gold (XAU/USD)

While Bitcoin is called ‘digital gold,’ its properties differ from gold. Gold is the world’s oldest traditional ‘safe-haven asset,’ while BTC is a ‘growth-oriented crypto asset’ with extremely high volatility.

Entering 2026, there are phases where the correlation between BTC and gold increases due to concerns over fiat currency inflation, but in cases of pure ‘geopolitical risk’ such as escalating tensions in the Middle East, there are frequent instances where gold surges while BTC is sold off as a risk asset.

5. US Spot BTC ETF Fund Flows (The Deciding Factor for Supply and Demand)

In the modern Bitcoin market where institutional investors have entered, this is the largest supply and demand driver.

In recent trends, a massive outflow of approximately $731 million was recorded from spot ETFs between October 7 and 8 before turning to a small inflow of about $21 million on the 9th. It is premature to judge that ‘selling pressure has been completely resolved’ based on this single day of small inflows; it is necessary to monitor the cumulative flow trends over 5 and 20 trading days.

Chapter 2: The ‘Causality Trap’ Often Encountered in Correlation Analysis

When utilizing correlation analysis, the most important thing to be wary of is confusing ‘correlation’ (the fact that things moved in the same direction) with ‘causality’ (one caused the other to move).

[Examples of Common Misconceptions]

・Incorrect interpretation: ‘Bitcoin was sold because US tech stocks plummeted.’

・Actual structure: ‘Expectations of additional Fed rate hikes (a surge in US interest rates) were in the background, and as a result, both Nasdaq and Bitcoin were sold simultaneously.’

As pointed out in S&P Global’s analysis, the correlation between BTC, tech stocks, interest rates, and inflation expectations is not constant, and the factors taking the lead shift rapidly with each market phase. It is essential to grasp not only the figures of external markets but also the ‘financial tightening pressure moving in the background.’

Chapter 3: The ‘6 Major Factors’ Influencing the Bitcoin Market (in Order of Importance)

I have organized the items that should be prioritized for confirmation in practical trading.

In particular, the 4th item, ‘Futures and Leverage Trends,’ is critically important for predicting short-term volatility.

Even in a rising market, if high-leverage long positions accumulate excessively and the Funding Rate swings to an abnormal positive, the moment a key support line is broken, a ‘cascade of forced long liquidations (stop-loss chain reaction)’ occurs, triggering a plunge of several thousand dollars in just tens of minutes.

Chapter 4: Current Status of the BTC Market (As of October 11)

The environment surrounding Bitcoin at present can be summarized in the following three points.

Price Level: Consolidating around $83,000.
Uncertainty of Spot ETFs: The shock of the significant outflow (approx. -$730 million) on the 7th-8th has not been fully offset by the small inflow (approx. +$21 million) on the 9th.
Macro Headwinds: The triple threat of ‘high interest rates, a strong dollar, and high oil prices’—with the US 10-year Treasury yield at approximately 5.24% (briefly hitting 5.36% mid-week), Brent crude in the $103 range, and the DXY in the mid-102 range—continues to pressure the upside.

Chapter 5: Monitoring Roadmap for Next Week (October 12–16)

Next week, similar to the currency and bond markets, the ‘US September CPI (Consumer Price Index)’ to be released on Wednesday, October 14, will be the biggest macro trigger for the Bitcoin market.

【Important Schedule for Next Week (JST)】

・10/12 (Mon):
🇯🇵 Japan Market Holiday (Sports Day) / 🇺🇸 US Treasury Spot Market Holiday (Columbus Day) ➔ Check initial movements in crude oil and the dollar index following weekend reports on the Middle East situation.

・10/13 (Tue):
Earnings announcements from major US financial institutions, Fed official speeches ➔ Gauge risk appetite in the stock market and the stance of institutional investors.

・10/14 (Wed) 21:30: ★★★★★【Most Important Decisive Battle】
🇺🇸 US September CPI (Consumer Price Index) ➔ If inflation slows, it will be a strong tailwind for BTC through a sharp drop in US interest rates and a weaker dollar. Conversely, if inflation reignites, US interest rates will jump above 5.35%, triggering a sharp drop alert for BTC.

・10/15 (Thu) 21:30: ★★★★ 🇺🇸 US September PPI (Producer Price Index) / US September Retail Sales ➔ Reinforcement of the resilience of the US economy and expectations for additional rate hikes.

・10/16 (Fri): Weekend position adjustment, US Industrial Production

Bitcoin operates 24/7, even outside the trading hours of traditional stock markets (weekends and nights). It is extremely important to check not only the instantaneous initial movement immediately after the US CPI release but also whether ‘ETF fund inflows are accompanying it’ and ‘futures open interest is being digested healthily’ during the subsequent US stock and bond market spot trading hours.

Chapter 6: ‘4-Step Monitoring’ for Practical Use

When incorporating Bitcoin into your regular USD/JPY or currency analysis routine, it is effective to proceed with checks using the following four steps.

【Practical Monitoring Steps】

STEP 1:
US 2-Year & 10-Year Treasury Yields & Dollar Index (DXY) ➔ Check the Fed’s policy tightening stance and the ‘strength/weakness of the dollar.’ (High interest rates and a strong dollar are headwinds for BTC)

STEP 2:
Nasdaq Composite Index & Gold (XAU/USD) ➔ Determine whether market funds are heading toward ‘high-tech growth stocks (risk-on)’ or fleeing to ‘safe-haven assets (emergency hedge).’

STEP 3:
US Spot BTC ETF Inflows/Outflows & Spot Volume ➔ Confirm whether ‘actual demand buying’ by large-scale and institutional investors is truly committing funds in response to changes in the macro environment.

STEP 4:
Futures Open Interest (OI), Funding Rates (FR), & Liquidation Concentration Zones ➔ Identify whether price movements are driven by healthy spot trading or by short squeezes/long squeezes due to excessive leverage on the verge of bursting.

Concrete Examples of Practical Scenario Judgment

🟢 Uptrend Established:
1. ‘Lower US interest rates + Weaker dollar + Higher Nasdaq + Continued inflows into spot ETFs’
2. ➔ The most reliable buying opportunity where macro factors and actual demand are perfectly aligned.
🔴 Sharp Drop Warning Signal:
1. ‘Surging US interest rates + Unilateral dollar strength + Massive outflows from spot ETFs’
2. ➔ The macro environment is a complete headwind. Close long positions and be wary of breaking support levels.
⚠️ Leverage Trap (Unwinding):
1. ‘BTC price is rising, but futures open interest (OI) is surging and funding rates are extremely positive’
2. ➔ Overheating of speculative longs not backed by spot buying. A danger zone where a sudden drop can easily trigger a chain reaction of liquidations (long squeeze).
🛡️ Emergency Decoupling:
1. “Rising Crude Oil + Gold Surge + Nasdaq Decline + BTC Decline”
2. ➔ Evidence that in times of geopolitical risk, BTC is being sold as a “risk asset” rather than a “safe-haven asset.” It is strictly forbidden to buy BTC in imitation of gold.

Summary: Capturing the “Multidimensional Correlation” Beyond Interest Rate Differentials

Bitcoin is not an asset that can be simply explained by the “interest rate differential between Japan and the US” like the Dollar-Yen.

On top of the massive macro foundation of “US monetary policy and long-term interest rates,” price movements are formed by the complex layering of “institutional investor money from spot ETFs” and “leverage supply and demand in the futures market”.

Looking ahead to next week’s US September CPI market, rather than just jumping on the headline results of the indicators, let’s coolly track the series of capital transmission paths: “US Interest Rates ➔ Dollar ➔ Nasdaq ➔ BTC ETF Flows ➔ Futures Open Interest,” and build trades with high superiority.

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