Jamie Dimon Warns Of Forces That “Continue To Shift Under The Surface,” As Half Of Russell 3000 Stocks Sit In A Bear Market With The S&P 500 Near Records
Jamie Dimon says dangerous forces are shifting beneath a seemingly calm surface, and the stock market tells a strikingly similar story. The index near record highs conceals a hidden collapse spreading quietly across hundreds of stocks.
Yahoo Finance and Stocktwits both reported on Oct. 13 that JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM | JPM Price Prediction) chief executive Jamie Dimon had warned that large fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, high asset prices, rising interest rates and geopolitical conditions “continue to shift under the surface.” He said these forces may be manageable and that the bank remains prepared for a wide range of outcomes. Stocktwits also reported that he said the U.S. economy remains strong, citing business investment and steady consumer spending.
The stock market has a similar gap between the surface and what lies beneath it. In this article, a bear market means a drop of more than 20% from a peak. Some of the counts below start from June highs and others from 52-week highs. Most of the figures come from secondary coverage.
Dimon Has Sounded This Alarm Before
Coverage dates the following wording to July. Dimon wrote that “several risks are shifting below the surface like tectonic plates, including geopolitical tensions and wars, sticky inflation, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices.” He added that the firm cannot predict how these forces will play out and that they could cause significant disruptions.
The bank also slowed its buybacks. TIKR data show gross repurchases of about $1.06 billion in the third quarter, down from about $6.70 billion in the second. Yahoo Finance called the cut “the bigger story.”
Half of Russell 3000 Stocks Sit in Bear Territory
Mike Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), reported that 51% of Russell 3000 stocks are down more than 20% from their June highs. Two weeks earlier, the figure was just over 40%. These numbers come from reposts of his Oct. 5 note and may have changed since. Yahoo Finance Canada covered his breadth concerns as early as Sept. 28.
The S&P 500 counts below use 52-week highs, so they cannot be compared with Wilson’s June-high figure. TheTradingTools put 34.8% of index members more than 20% below their 52-week highs at the Oct. 9 close. MarketWatch put the share at 44%. Wilson reported that the median S&P 500 stock sits 16% below its 52-week high.
Capital Blueprint reported that 96% of semiconductor stocks are down more than 20% from their June highs, compared with about 4% of banks. Citing Citadel Securities, Capital Blueprint also said four companies added about 300 index points over three quarters: Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Meta Platforms. Over the same stretch, the remaining 496 members took off about 150.
Counterarguments Carry Real Weight
On Oct. 2, Opening Bell Daily argued that “narrow market breadth doesn’t mean a bear market is coming.” Capital Blueprint, citing Bloomberg, reported that more S&P 500 stocks hit 52-week lows than highs on 17 of the last 18 trading days. In the past, that pattern has usually shown up near a post-selloff low, and stocks then rose.
Dimon’s own wording is hedged, and he predicted nothing. The quarter also held up. Revenue rose 8% from a year earlier, profit increased, and the chief financial officer said “the consumer is currently very healthy.”
JPMorgan Shares Slipped After an Intraday Rebound
JPMorgan shares fell in premarket trading on the earnings miss and recovered through the session, but still closed down 0.82%. The stock traded at $331.57 as of the Oct. 13 delayed quote. A Stocktwits headline said the stock gained despite the miss, which differs from the closing move. Over the past month the shares are down 6.46%, and year to date they are up 4.87%.
Bond Volatility Holds the Key
The Dark Side Of The Boom reported on Oct. 5 that, in Wilson’s view, bond volatility will decide how the weak breadth gets fixed. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.24% on Oct. 9, close to the level he cited. Reports described his conditional scenario: if bond volatility remains high, the S&P 500 could fall about 6% to roughly 7,300 over the following month.
Separately, Motley Fool reported that the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio has crossed 40 for only the second time. This valuation measure is separate from breadth, though the combination of high multiples and narrowing leadership is exactly the setup we walked through in a free handbook on riding a mania without giving it all back.
Investors should watch bond volatility and whether breadth broadens, or whether the index follows the median stock lower.
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