US midterms 2026: What is at stake for Trump, Republicans and Democrats
The United States will hold its midterm elections on November 3. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate are up for election. Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress.
The economy, rising living costs, immigration, healthcare and fuel prices are among the key issues shaping the campaign. The US conflict with Iran and its impact on energy prices have also become important concerns for voters.
What are US midterm elections?
Midterm elections are federal elections held halfway through a US president’s four-year term. They take place two years after a presidential election and allow voters to choose members of Congress, as well as officials in state and local governments.
Unlike presidential elections, midterms do not determine who occupies the White House. Instead, they determine the composition of Congress, the legislative branch of the federal government.
Midterms also include elections for governors, state legislatures and various local offices, depending on the state. Some states may also put ballot measures on issues such as taxes or public policy before voters.
The results can change the balance of power in Washington even though the president remains in office.
When will the elections be held, and what is at stake?
The 2026 US midterm elections will be held on November 3.
• House of Representatives
The House has 435 voting members, each elected for a two-year term. All 435 seats are therefore contested every two years. A party needs 218 seats for a majority.
• Senate (35 seats)
The Senate has 100 members, with each state represented by two senators. Senators serve six-year terms, and their elections are staggered so that roughly one-third of the chamber faces voters every two years. This year, 35 Senate seats are up for election.
The House and Senate have different election maps, which is one reason the outcome in one chamber may differ from that in the other.
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, including members who caucus with the Democratic side. Democrats need to flip at least four seats to reach 51, assuming the remaining seats stay as they are. Several of their key targets are in states President Donald Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024, making the contest more complicated than the national polling picture alone might suggest, BBC reported.
Why do the midterm elections matter?
The US president cannot make federal laws alone. Congress passes laws, approves government spending and oversees the administration.
Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress. However, a change in control would not automatically reverse Trump’s policies. Bills must pass both chambers, and the president can veto them. Congress can override a veto only with a two-thirds majority in both chambers.
The Senate also approves presidential nominees, including federal judges and senior government officials.
If Democrats win both chambers, they could more effectively challenge Trump’s agenda. If Republicans retain control, Trump would have greater freedom to pursue his policies through Congress.
What do pollsters say about the 2026 midterms?
Recent polling points to dissatisfaction with Trump and a stronger national position for Democrats, but surveys do not guarantee a particular election result.
A Reuters poll conducted from September 30 to October 5 found that Trump’s approval rating fell to 32 per cent, the lowest rating recorded during his political career. The same survey found that registered voters preferred Democratic candidates over Republicans by 43 per cent to 35 per cent when asked how they would vote in a congressional election.
What are the key issues shaping the elections?
• Economy, inflation and the cost of living
The economy and rising prices remain key concerns for voters. A Pew Research Center survey published on October 8 found that 84 per cent of registered voters considered the economy very important to their midterm vote. The figure was 88 per cent among Democratic supporters and 82 per cent among Republican supporters.
The latest inflation figures have added to the pressure. According to data reported by Reuters on October 14, US consumer price inflation rose 3.7 per cent in the 12 months to September, while gasoline prices increased 9.1 per cent during the month.
• Iran conflict and rising energy prices
The conflict with Iran has raised concerns about fuel prices, energy markets and the wider economy. Higher petrol and diesel prices can increase household expenses and transport and production costs.
A Reuters review published on October 7 found that candidates in 41 of 62 competitive congressional races had sought to distance themselves from President Donald Trump, either over policy differences or by playing down their association with him. These included disagreements over the Iran conflict, tariffs and rising fuel prices.
• Immigration and border enforcement
Immigration remains a key issue, with Trump and Republicans backing stricter enforcement and deportations, while Democrats have raised concerns about the effects on families, communities and workers.
A Pew Research Center survey found that 72 per cent of voters supporting Republican congressional candidates considered immigration very important to their vote, compared with 53 per cent of Democratic supporters.
• Healthcare, abortion and the future of democracy
Healthcare costs, insurance coverage and access to services could influence voters, particularly in competitive districts. Abortion rights also remain an issue following the US Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe vs Wade, which had recognised a constitutional right to abortion and left states with greater authority over abortion laws.
Pew Research Center’s October survey found that 73 per cent of registered voters considered the future of democracy very important to their midterm vote.
• Artificial intelligence and data centres
The expansion of artificial intelligence data centres has become a local political issue, with residents raising concerns about electricity demand, water use, environmental effects and higher household power bills.
Pew Research Center found that 44 per cent of registered voters considered AI very important to their vote. Its survey also found that 61 per cent disliked political leaders who supported building data centres near them, while 8 per cent said they liked such leaders.
Why Democrats may fall short of a midterm landslide
Despite Donald Trump’s low approval ratings, six factors could limit Democratic gains, according to Reuters.
Fewer competitive House races: Partisan divisions and redistricting have left only 40-50 of the 435 House seats genuinely competitive, analysts told Reuters.
Difficult Senate contests: Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a 51-seat majority, with several targets in states Trump won comfortably in 2024.
Turnout concerns: Lower participation among young, Black and Hispanic voters could affect Democratic performance, while voter dissatisfaction may keep some away from polling stations.
Republican fundraising advantage: Republican committees and allied groups held $614 million in cash, compared with $392 million for Democrats, according to campaign finance filings cited by Reuters.
Polling uncertainty: Past surveys have sometimes underestimated Republican support, making predictions less certain.
Attacks on Democrats: Republicans have portrayed Democrats as socialists or extremists. Former Bill Clinton adviser Bill Galston told Reuters such attacks “might be effective at the margins” among undecided voters.
Why are Republican candidates distancing themselves from Trump?
Trump remains a key figure in the Republican Party, but his low approval ratings and disagreements over his policies have prompted some candidates to distance themselves from him ahead of the midterm elections.
A Reuters review found that Republican candidates in 41 of 62 competitive congressional races had sought to distance themselves from Trump. Policy differences were the most common reason, appearing in 23 races. Disagreements included the Iran conflict, tariffs and rising fuel prices. Some candidates have also removed Trump’s endorsements from campaign websites or avoided joint appearances.
The elections could also offer clues about the future of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. Frontline reported that Trump’s departure could expose differences within the coalition he has held together.
Since the US Constitution bars Trump from being elected to another presidential term in 2028, Republicans will eventually face questions over succession and who will carry forward his “America First” agenda.