Rich Ross Sees Tesla Tsla Stock Price Above $400 as Breakout Nears

Tesla TSLA stock price has climbed 28% from its late-July low, but the rebound still sits between the 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average. That leaves shareholders watching a narrow band that could decide whether the recent bounce becomes a reset or another pause.

John Kolovos, chief technical strategist at Macro Risk Advisors, said, “This very near term range captures the stage of purgatory the stock is in longer term”. He added, “To keep it real simple, a breakout above the 200-DMA with follow through above $400 resistance would resolve things positively.”

200-DMA and $400

Rich Ross of Evercore ISI said an upswing will depend largely on Tesla climbing above the 200-day level and making its way back to $400 per share. “Tesla above $400 sounds, looks, and trades a lot better,” he said, putting the emphasis on price behavior rather than a broad narrative shift.

15% is how far Tesla remains below its 2026 starting point, even after the recent bounce. By comparison, the S&P 500 is up 14% in 2026, so the stock’s recovery still trails the broader market by a wide margin.

Late-July rebound math

In December, Tesla reached a record high, then fell steadily after a late-July low that followed a quarterly profit miss and swelling capital expenditures. From that trough, the 28% advance has brought the stock back into the zone where short-term trading decisions and longer-term trend calls start to overlap.

For traders, the practical read is simple: a move above the 200-day moving average and then through $400 would open the door to a cleaner breakout, while a slip under the 50-day moving average and then below $345 would push the stock back into a weaker range. Kolovos said, “Conversely, a break under the 50-DMA with follow through under $345 would resolve the range negatively.”

Third-quarter earnings later this month

Later this month, Tesla will report third-quarter earnings, giving investors the next scheduled check on whether the stock’s recent recovery has support beyond the chart. JC O’Hara of Roth Capital Partners said the shares may be poised for a sharp move, while Joseph Spak of UBS pointed to conviction in Tesla’s physical AI products and market hopes for a merger with SpaceX as reasons the stock has been stuck moving sideways.

If Tesla can pair the earnings report with a close above the 200-day moving average and $400, the stock would finally start to separate this bounce from the downtrend that Ross still says we have to operate as if is intact.