Challenging Japanese Stock Swing Trading with ChatGPT #36
I continue to engage in short-term swing trading, where I purchase Japanese stocks during my weekday lunch break and, in principle, sell them during the lunch break of the next business day. I use ChatGPT for stock selection and trading decisions, verifying with my own money whether it is actually possible to make a profit in Japanese stock trading using AI.
This article, excluding the final “Thoughts on this time” section, was also created by ChatGPT. The main text is organized based on actual trading records and the analysis performed at that time.
+16,160 yen from 4 stocks! About 80% of the profit came from INPEX, yet the cumulative deficit is still over 170,000 yen.
In the trades on October 19th, I sold the 4 stocks I was holding and realized a total profit of 16,160 yen. Although it was a strong performance with 3 wins and 1 loss, the majority of the profit was earned by INPEX, while the other 3 stocks saw only small price movements.
The results this time show that it is important not only to choose stocks that will rise in price, but also to choose stocks that will rise significantly.
October 19th Sale Results
I settled the 4 stocks I held as of October 16th on the next business day, the 19th. Each was 100 shares, and the trading results are as follows.
① INPEX (1605)
Purchase price: 3,670 yen → Sale price: 3,799 yen
Realized profit/loss: +12,900 yen
② Mitsui & Co. (8031)
Purchase price: 4,974 yen → Sale price: 4,999 yen
Realized profit/loss: +2,500 yen
③ Canon (7751)
Purchase price: 4,815.4 yen → Sale price: 4,826 yen
Realized profit/loss: +1,060 yen
④ Astellas Pharma (4503)
Purchase price: 2,428 yen → Sale price: 2,425 yen
Realized profit/loss: -300 yen
Total for 4 stocks: +16,160 yen (3 wins, 1 loss)
*Before tax and commission deductions. Purchase prices are confirmed from the transaction ledger. The exact execution date of the purchase cannot be determined solely from the saved screen.
INPEX stands out. The remaining 3 stocks show small price movements.
The stock that generated the largest profit this time is INPEX. It rose 3.51% from the purchase price, securing a profit of 12,900 yen from a single stock. It accounts for approximately 80% of the total profit from the four stocks.
On the other hand, Mitsui & Co. rose by about 0.50% and Canon by about 0.22%. Both were profitable in terms of trading direction, but the same upward momentum as INPEX could not be confirmed.
Astellas Pharma fell by about 0.12%, resulting in a loss of 300 yen. It did not collapse significantly, but it did not develop into a situation where it exceeded the purchase price.
Newly purchased Zensho HD at 12,085 yen
On October 19, I newly purchased 100 shares of Zensho Holdings (7550) at 12,085 yen. The investment amount is 1,208,500 yen.
Next time, I will check the positional relationship between the stock price at the time of purchase and the VWAP, and whether the upward momentum of the morning session continued until the next business day. Even if the stock selection is correct, if the purchase price is too high, profit cannot be left, so the quality of the entry is also an important verification target.
Cumulative 100 trades. Deficit remains even with a winning record.
The cumulative results reflecting this settlement are as follows.
Number of confirmed trades: 100
Wins: 51, Losses: 49
Win rate: 51.0%
Cumulative realized profit/loss: -174,170 yen
October realized profit/loss: -145,810 yen
Although the win rate exceeds 50%, the cumulative profit/loss is still significantly negative. The magnitude of profits when winning and losses when losing affects the results more than the number of wins.
Can I reproduce large profits like this time with INPEX? And can I reduce past large losses? From now on, I will continue verification by focusing not only on the accuracy of simple rise/fall predictions but also on the asymmetry of profits and losses.
Thoughts on this time
・I felt like it was a plus for the first time in a while, but it seems it was a plus on October 9th after all. As an article, a plus of over 10,000 yen is quite rare. ・This is extremely occult, but I feel that the probability of hitting is quite high if I predict the stock price using the work function instead of the chat function of Chappy. However, if I use the work function for note article creation and image creation, I only pay for plus, so I will exceed the usage capacity. Therefore, the content of the article cannot properly analyze the transaction and becomes sparse (;^ω^). ・Zensho also rose in the afternoon session. I looked into why it rose, but it seems there was no material at all. It is mysterious, but for now, please rise until tomorrow noon!! ・I want to try my hand at semiconductor stocks, but I really have no idea what will happen.
*This article is a record of individual transactions and verification, and does not recommend buying or selling specific stocks.
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