Tesla Stock At $4,400? Cathie Wood's ARK Pins Hopes On Robotaxis, Sees SpaceX Merger In 5 Years
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ARK’s $4,400 forecast for 2031 implies about 1,095% upside, with robotaxis accounting for about 80% of projected enterprise value.
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Tesla reports Musk’s stake at 19.8% and 2025 compensation of $158.36 billion based on grant-date award valuations.
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Morningstar expects another quarter of negative free cash flow as the company reports its Q3 results on Wednesday.
Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) are headed into earnings after ending a four-day slide on Monday as Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management outlined over 1,000% upside by 2031 and potential benefits from a SpaceX merger.
TSLA stock rose 3.8% to $368.06 on Monday before slipping 0.5% overnight late Monday as investors also digested a report that Alphabet, Inc.’s Waymo plans to expand its autonomous vehicle fleet fivefold.
Robotaxis Drive ARK’s $4,400 Tesla Forecast
ARK expects Tesla’s share price to hit $4,400 by 2031, implying about 1,095% upside from current levels. Robotaxis account for about 80% of projected enterprise value, with Optimus contributing more than in its previous model.
The firm projects about 8.1 million cumulative robotaxis and 1 million cumulative external Optimus units by 2031 in its base case. It also sees nearly $1.45 trillion in total revenue and a $17.5 trillion market cap. “Tesla is early in scaling robotaxi, but its vertical integration and cost advantages could make it first to widespread service,” ARK analyst Tasha Keeney said on X.
ARK estimates Cybercab’s incremental operating costs per mile could be 40% below those of Waymo’s Ioniq 5 platform at scale in 2031. It also revised pricing assumptions to reflect a broader range of customers’ willingness to pay.
The firm’s merger assumptions add another potential catalyst. “While our model assesses Tesla as a standalone business, a SpaceX-Tesla merger could take place within the next five years,” the report says.
ARK says Tesla’s robotaxi cash flow could help finance SpaceX’s orbital data centers, while SpaceX’s frontier AI models could support Optimus. Together, it estimates the companies to generate $3.8 trillion in revenue and $2.7 trillion in EBIT by 2031, with SpaceX contributing 62% and 69%, respectively.
Black Tempers Expectations For SpaceX Deal
Future Fund managing director Gary Black said he has long viewed a SpaceX-Tesla deal as inevitable, while reiterating caution that an all-stock deal could dilute the benefit to Tesla shareholders. “All told, I don’t expect a huge windfall for TSLA shareholders on a SPCX/TSLA stock-for-stock deal, although the announcement itself would be positive for TSLA stock,” Black said on X.
He also suggested a hypothetical offer of around $420 per Tesla share, about 14% above Monday’s close. Black expects the combined company’s valuation to follow the acquirer’s multiple, citing estimated fiscal 2027 enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiples of 29.4 times for SpaceX and 72.6 times for Tesla. He also sees merger arbitrage potentially weighing on the price during a six-to-12-month closing process.
Tesla Touts Robotaxi Progress Ahead Of Board Vote
On Monday, Tesla posted a shareholder letter that says its robotaxi service has expanded to seven U.S. cities and includes Cybercabs without steering wheels or pedals. It also reports nearly 1.5 million paid FSD customers and more than 15 billion cumulative miles driven with FSD Supervised.
The company is seeking shareholder support to re-elect Musk, chair Robyn Denholm and J.B. Straubel at its Dec.3 annual meeting. The proxy reports Musk’s current stake at about 699.6 million shares, or 19.8%, as of Sept.30, including restricted shares from his 2018 award that carry voting rights despite a service-based forfeiture condition.
It also reports $158.36 billion in Musk’s 2025 compensation based on grant-date award valuations, including $26.1 billion for an interim award forfeited in April.
Investors Press Tesla For FSD And Optimus Timelines
Tesla will release its third-quarter (Q3) results after the stock market closes on Wednesday. Revenue is expected to decline 1% quarter-over-quarter, while EBITDA rises 15% and EBIT increases 129%, according to Koyfin. Meanwhile, adjusted EPS is projected to rise 36%.
On an annual basis, Q3 revenue is projected at $28.98 billion, compared with $28.10 billion a year earlier, according to Fiscal AI. EBITDA is expected to decline to $3.40 billion from $4.23 billion, while EPS falls to $0.35 from $0.50.
Morningstar expects free cash flow to be negative for a second consecutive quarter because of Tesla’s substantial capital spending. It also expects investors to scrutinize the company’s near-term robotaxi and humanoid-robot guidance.
Retail shareholders’ top-voted earnings questions focus mainly on commercialization. “When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?” asks the leading question, with about 1,000 votes. A question about when customers can purchase and own Cybercabs follows with 990 votes, while a request for clarity on expansion beyond Austin and regulation outside Texas has 848 votes.
Optimus unit costs and its first paying customer attracted 629 votes. Another question, with 437 votes, asks: “When do you anticipate Optimus will begin generating revenue?” A question seeking clarity on possible free HW3 upgrades drew 476 votes, while other shareholders are pressing for details on robotaxi economics, insurance and privately owned fleets.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA has been ‘neutral’ over the past day amid a 242% jump in 24-hour message volumes.
One user said, “$TSLA most past earnings, it has drop, i think this time will surprise some…”
Another user said, “$TSLA This is the “growing” car company that shouldn’t trade in line with traditional car manufacturers. 5 years of diminishing operating income. This will never grow into its 1.5T 340P/E. Only saving grace would be if Elon would roll his ponzis together into one giant cash burning ponzi”
So far this year, Tesla’s stock has lagged its “Magnificent Seven” peers, making it the group’s worst performer, down about 18%.
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Deepti Sri has no position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. StockTwits’ news team content is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. For more, see our editorial policy. This article was originally published on StockTwits.
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