[NAV Forecast] WCM Next & World's Best: Nasdaq-led gains on improved AI investment sentiment, WCM remains solid driven by tech stocks (10/22 Analysis)

Good morning, this is TOMMY_JUNE.

Today’s US market saw gains led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+1.05%) as investment appetite for AI infrastructure improved following positive earnings from SpaceX and Super Micro Computer. The S&P 500 also remained solid at +0.53%. On the other hand, declines in the communication services sector capped overall gains. Amid a general risk-on environment, including the Japanese market (Nikkei 225 +0.85%), there is strong upward pressure on the NAV forecast for WCM Next Generation, which has a high ratio of semiconductor and tech stocks.

1. NAV Forecast Summary (Announced 10/22)

These are estimated values based on confirmed market performance overseas. While currency factors are slightly negative, the strength of tech stocks, particularly those related to AI, is significantly boosting the stock price factor for WCM Next.

2. Contribution Analysis (Stock Price Factor)

On a local stock price basis, the strength of tech and semiconductor-related stocks stands out.

■ WCM Next Generation

Technology-related stocks such as Samsung Electronics (+5.67%) and Seagate Technology (+3.22%) rose significantly, driving the portfolio. Siemens Energy (+2.55%) also remained solid, and the subtotal contribution of the top 10 stocks secured a significant positive of +0.49%.

■ World’s Best

Although Texas Instruments (+2.47%) rose on the back of strong earnings, declines in top holdings 3i Group (-3.93%) and Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (-2.75%) weighed on the portfolio, causing the subtotal contribution of the top 10 stocks to sink to a negative -0.13%.

3. Deep Dive: Factors Behind Notable Stock Movements

Here is an explanation of the recent background for stocks that showed particular movement in last night’s market.

• Samsung Electronics Performance: +5.67%

  • 【Expectations for AI Semiconductor Demand and Buybacks】 Following strong earnings from companies like Super Micro in the US market, the resilience of demand for AI servers and memory for data centers was reaffirmed, and strong buying spilled over to the company. It was the largest positive contributor (+0.26%) within WCM Next.

• Seagate Technology (STX) Performance: +3.22%

  • 【Expansion of Demand for AI Data Centers】 The stock rose as strong demand for high-capacity storage from AI data centers and cloud providers was well-received. Analysts have also been observed raising their target prices, and the stock rode the wave of improved sentiment for tech stocks as a whole.

• Texas Instruments (TXN) Performance: +2.47%

  • 【Peace of Mind from Strong Earnings】 The market reacted positively to the third-quarter earnings report, which showed solid revenue of $6.06 billion. In the World’s Best portfolio, it acted as a lone pillar of support.

• Siemens Energy (ENR) performance: +2.55%

  • [Analyst Price Target Upgrade] Driven by solid revenue, the stock was well-received following an analyst price target upgrade in Europe. Persistent demand for power infrastructure continues to provide a firm outlook, contributing to WCM’s positive contribution (+0.19%).

4. Verification against indices: Why did it underperform the market average?

While major stock indices such as the Nasdaq (+1.05%), S&P 500 (+0.53%), and Nikkei 225 (+0.85%) performed steadily, the stock price factors for both funds (WCM Next: +0.64%, World’s Best: +0.09%) failed to reach the indices’ gains, resulting in slight underperformance. The following points are cited as reasons.

• Weight differences due to mega-cap tech-led gains

  1. Last night’s index gains were strongly driven by top market-cap stocks and specific names, such as Tesla’s rise (+3.4%) following its strong earnings report and the rebound in semiconductor and server-related stocks accompanying Super Micro’s surge (+9.6%). The difference in the ratio of mega-cap stocks that pushed the indices higher directly led to the performance gap with the indices.

• Weakness in non-tech and European assets acted as a brake (World’s Best)

  1. For the “World’s Best,” although Texas Instruments performed well, declines in non-tech and European-related stocks such as 3i Group (-3.93%) and Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (-2.75%), which are top constituents, weighed on performance. As market capital shifted heavily toward AI and tech-related sectors, the correction in defensive and European stocks significantly suppressed the stock price factor (+0.09%).

• Performance variance among constituents (WCM Next)

  1. In “WCM Next,” while Samsung Electronics (+5.67%) and Seagate (+3.22%) were major drivers, the correction in SEA (-3.07%) and mixed price movements among small and mid-cap constituents offset these gains, preventing an explosive rise like that of the Nasdaq or the SOX index (+2.0%).

Although the market environment itself improved, because buying was concentrated on “specific themes and individual stocks with strong earnings,” the result for a diversified active portfolio was lower than the index average.

5. Today’s Summary: Investment Perspective

Today was a day where concerns over AI infrastructure investment eased following strong earnings from some companies, with “buying back into tech stocks” leading the market.

WCM Next benefited from a portfolio susceptible to AI and semiconductor-related gains, with top holdings like Samsung Electronics and Seagate Technology rising strongly, significantly boosting the stock price factor. On the other hand, for the World’s Best, while Texas Instruments performed well after strong earnings, declines in consumer goods and financial stocks acted as a drag, resulting in sluggish overall growth.

Going forward, the focus will be on whether the “resilience of AI demand” shown by Super Micro will spread to other major tech earnings. With the Magnificent 7 earnings reports also approaching, it is expected that the market will continue to assess whether the trend of buying AI-related stocks is genuine. It is necessary to continue monitoring developments while remaining vigilant about short-term sector rotation and post-earnings volatility.

TOMMY_JUNE

---

▼ Popular articles on personal portfolios and investment strategies
While following global economic trends, I also write practical articles on personal wealth building (FIRE x distribution funds). I have summarized perspectives for steadily growing cash flow without being deceived by pessimism on social media.

#AssetManagement #InvestmentTrust #WCMNext #WorldsBest #NAVForecast #FIRE