October 26, 2026

[Market Memo] 10/26 Crude oil over $100, US energy stocks rise. Focus on Japanese resource and semiconductor stocks

Good morning🐈

The US market over the weekend was weighed down by rising crude oil prices and interest rates.
WTI crude oil exceeded $100, and energy stocks are seeing buying.

Semiconductors saw a slight recovery from the previous day’s sharp decline.
Today, I will check the reaction of resource stocks like INPEX and the resilience of Japanese semiconductor stocks.

※Since it is Monday, I will look back at the most recent trading day, 10/23, for the US, Japan, and South Korea.

[US Market | 10/23 Closing Price]

NY Dow 52,215.16 -1.23%
NASDAQ 25,955.34 -0.21%
S&P 500 7,623.68 -0.52%
SOX 10,779.46 +0.44%

Crude oil prices rose due to concerns over a reignition of the conflict between the US and Iran.
The WTI December contract was $103.27, up 3.82% from the previous day.

The US 10-year Treasury yield also rose to the 4.99% level, and the three major indices fell.
Buying came into sectors like energy and IT, showing a divergence in direction by industry.

[Major Semiconductors | 10/23 Closing Price]

NVIDIA $210.96 -0.59%
AMD $516.79 +1.74%
Micron $877.55 +2.46%
TSMC $418.51 +1.49%

The SOX index saw a slight rebound of +0.44%.
However, it has not recovered from the previous day’s sharp decline.

[Stocks that moved significantly in the US]

■CrowdStrike (CRWD) [Cybersecurity] +8.25%
Closing price $257.57

Alertness regarding PHP vulnerabilities has spread, and cybersecurity-related stocks were bought.
The company also released technical information on 10/23.

Related Japanese stock:
Trend Micro (4704)

This is a peer comparison in enterprise cybersecurity.
This does not confirm that Japanese companies’ orders have increased due to this news.

■SLB (SLB) [Oil Services] +7.08%
Closing price $53.06

Quarterly revenue announced on 10/23 was $9.45 billion, up 6% from the same period last year.
Adjusted EPS was $0.64, exceeding the market expectation of $0.62.

SLB, which announced its earnings, rose.
Energy stocks as a whole are also seeing buying due to high crude oil prices.

Related Japanese stocks:
Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662)
INPEX (1605)

This is a thematic connection regarding oil and natural gas development.
SLB is in oilfield services, while both companies are involved in exploration, development, and production; they are not in the same business. This does not indicate new orders or partnerships.

■American Express (AXP) [Cards/Finance] -3.68%
Closing price $313.22

Revenue was approximately $20.06 billion, up 9%.
Adjusted EPS was $4.68. The full-year EPS guidance has also been raised.

Meanwhile, they announced a workforce reduction of approximately 5%.
The strength of the earnings and the stock price reaction were mixed.

Related Japanese stocks:
Credit Saison (8253)

This is a comparison target for the card and payment business.
It does not conclude that US announcements will directly impact the performance of Japanese companies.

[Volatility/Sentiment]

Nikkei VI 38.25 [10/23 closing price]
VIX 19.45 +2.21% [10/23 closing price]

Fear & Greed 21 (Extreme Fear)
[Updated 10/23 19:59 US Eastern Time, confirmed 10/26 morning]

Market sentiment is in the Extreme Fear range.

[Buying Opportunity Conditions]

Nikkei VI > 50
+
Fear & Greed < 20

Currently, Nikkei VI is 38.25 and Fear & Greed is 21.
→ The conditions are not met.

[Currency/Nikkei After-hours]

USD/JPY 156.924 yen
Nikkei After-hours 62,726 yen
+33 yen (+0.05%)

[Retrieved 10/26 7:30]
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[Japan/Korea Markets | 10/23 closing price]

Nikkei 225 62,693.16 yen -0.34%
TOPIX 3,965.81 -0.79%
Nikkei Semiconductor 20,767.72 -0.15%
Growth 250 754.60 +0.18%

The Nikkei 225 fell by over 1,400 yen at one point, but reduced its losses in the afternoon session.
It recovered about 868 yen from the morning close of 61,825.26 yen.

Real estate and retail rose, while banking, shipping, and non-ferrous metals fell.
Some semiconductor stocks also recovered in the afternoon session.

[Japanese stocks that moved the previous day | 10/23 closing price]

■ Disco (6146) [Semiconductor Equipment] -3.79%
Closing price 49,290 yen

Operating profit for the first half, announced on 10/22, was up 47.9%.
Meanwhile, the operating profit forecast of 174.7 billion yen for April-December fell short of the market expectation of 181.8 billion yen.

Despite the profit increase, the stock price fell. The overall weakness of semiconductor stocks also weighed on it.

■ Mitsui Fudosan (8801) [Real Estate] +2.23%
Closing price 1,582 yen

Real estate stocks were bought on expectations that borrowing costs would fall following the decline in long-term interest rates.
This is a factor for Japanese stocks on 10/23. We will view this separately from the rise in US interest rates on the evening of the same day.

■ Bronco Billy (3091) [Dining] +6.35%
Closing price 3,130 yen

Operating profit for January-September, announced on 10/22, was 3.054 billion yen, up 48.4% year-on-year.
Existing store sales were up 7.8%.

The earnings report was well-received, and the stock price rose.
The full-year operating profit forecast of 3.97 billion yen remains unchanged.

[Korean Market | 10/23 closing price]

KOSPI 5,550.30 +0.30%
Samsung Electronics 215,500 won +0.47%
SK hynix 1,277,000 won +4.42%

The rise in SK hynix was notable.
Because trading hours differ from Japan and the US, we do not directly attribute the same-day price movements to cause and effect.

[Today’s Factors]

■ US
High crude oil prices and rising US long-term interest rates.
We will check the divergence in direction between resource/energy and semiconductor stocks among US stocks.

■ Japan
The reaction of INPEX and Japan Petroleum Exploration to high crude oil prices.
For semiconductor stocks, we will see if the recovery from Friday’s afternoon session continues.

Cybersecurity is also a point to check.
We will organize CrowdStrike’s rise and Trend Micro as related themes, but we will not assume that their price movements will match.

■ Korea/Asia
Movements in Korean memory stocks and TSMC.
We will check SK hynix’s 10/23 rise without confusing it with today’s price movements.

[SOX/Nikkei Average Movements]

SOX
10/23 closing price 10,779.46
Day’s low 10,667.92
Day’s high 10,923.18

After a slight rebound, we will see if it can exceed 10,923 again.
On the downside, we will check for price support around 10,668.

Nikkei Stock Average
10/23 Closing Price 62,693.16 yen
Day’s Low 61,462.61 yen
Day’s High 62,786.89 yen

It recovered in the afternoon session, but the closing price is lower than the previous day.
We will check for price stability after exceeding the 62,787 yen level and whether there is movement to re-test the low around 61,463 yen. This is not a price prediction.

[Today’s Market Sentiment]

Although major US indices were down, energy and some semiconductor stocks rose.
In Japan, we will also look at the differences between resource stocks, semiconductor stocks, and domestic demand stocks, rather than just the indices.

No conditions met for a buying opportunity.

[Today’s Checkpoints]

・Movement from WTI at $103.27
・US long-term interest rates in the 4.99% range
・Reaction of INPEX and Japan Petroleum Exploration
・Price stability of semiconductor stocks since Friday afternoon
・Cybersecurity-related stocks
・Japan VI 38.25, Fear & Greed 21

This post is a personal market observation memo and does not recommend the buying or selling of any specific financial products.

[Market Memo] 10/26 Crude oil over $100, US energy stocks rise. Focus on Japanese resource and semiconductor stocks

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