US midterms 2026: Why rising prices could hurt Trump's Republicans

With the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3, the rising cost of living has emerged as a major concern for voters. From groceries and petrol to housing and healthcare, higher household expenses are shaping how Americans view the economy and President Donald Trump’s policies.

Polls suggest that affordability is a concern across party lines, including among rural voters who have traditionally supported Trump and the Republican Party. Tariffs, rising energy prices and the US conflict with Iran have added to pressure on household budgets.

US midterms: Cost of living tops voters’ concerns

A Reuters-Ipsos poll found that 50% of registered voters considered the cost of living the single most important factor influencing their vote. This included 53% of Republicans and 49% of Democrats, up from 47% in August.

A separate Pew Research Center survey found that 29% of voters wanted congressional candidates to focus on an economic issue.

The November 3 elections will determine all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, around one-third of the Senate seats, 36 governorships and thousands of local offices. Voters will assess not only Trump’s leadership but also how his administration’s policies have affected their everyday lives.

Why are Americans worried despite economic growth?

Some economic indicators point to growth. The US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.2% in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department, while consumer spending rose 3.8%. Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence also helped lift the stock market.

However, these gains have not eased financial pressure on many households.

Inflation-adjusted disposable income remained flat in August, even as inflation-adjusted consumer spending increased by 0.6%. The personal saving rate fell from 4.6% to 4.1%, its lowest level since November 2022.

The labour market has also shown signs of weakness. Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. Average wages increased by around 3% from a year earlier, the smallest annual gain since May 2021, while prices rose 3.4% in August.

Housing costs remain another concern. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage reached 7.28% on October 1, a three-year high after rising for six consecutive weeks. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index stood at 81.9, close to a 12-and-a-half-year low.

These figures highlight the gap between overall economic growth and the financial pressures facing households.

Rising grocery, petrol and electricity costs

Financial strain is also evident in rural America, a strong base of support for Trump and the Republicans.

A survey by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research (AP-NORC) of more than 2,000 registered rural voters found that about half believed the economy was worse than when Trump returned to office. Around three-fourths rated the cost of living in their communities as fair or poor.

Groceries, petrol and healthcare were among their biggest concerns. GasBuddy figures showed that national petrol prices had risen by around 46% since January 2025. In Iowa, the price of a gallon increased from $2.77 to $4.23, while in Alaska it rose from $3.29 to more than $5.

Electricity costs were also around 15% higher than in January 2025. Meanwhile, the national median home price had increased by 6%, adding to housing affordability concerns, including in some closely contested states.

US-Iran conflict puts energy prices under scrutiny

The US conflict with Iran has added another dimension to the affordability debate, as rising fuel prices increase pressure on household budgets.

An AP-NORC poll found that 69% of respondents believed the war had not been worth fighting, while only 28% approved of Trump’s handling of it.

The conflict could become a political concern for Trump, who had previously promised to end wars. Voters facing higher energy costs may assess foreign policy partly through its impact on the domestic economy.

Healthcare costs remain a major concern

Healthcare is another source of financial pressure for American households, many of which must pay insurance premiums, deductibles and medical bills.

A Council on Foreign Relations-Morning Consult survey found that 68% of respondents were worried about being unable to afford medicines and pharmaceutical supplies.

Among rural voters, the survey found that only 17% believed Trump’s healthcare policies had reduced their costs, while 41% said the policies had made healthcare more expensive.

These concerns could influence voters’ views on insurance coverage, prescription drug prices and access to medical care.

How Trump’s tariffs are affecting the affordability debate

Trump’s tariff policies have become a key point of debate. The administration says tariffs protect American workers and businesses from unfair trade practices, while critics argue that import duties increase costs for US businesses and consumers.

A Council on Foreign Relations-Morning Consult survey found that 75% of respondents were worried about affording groceries. Among those concerned, 83% blamed tariffs for making the situation worse.

Research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimated that tariffs had added 2.9 percentage points to the annualised inflation rate for consumer goods covered by its analysis by February 2026. Yale’s Budget Lab estimated that the average US tariff rate was around 11%, adding about $1,100 a year to household expenses.

Immigration and AI also feature in the election debate

Immigration remains a key issue for Trump and his supporters, while concerns about artificial intelligence are growing, particularly over its potential impact on jobs.

However, economic pressures could influence how voters assess these and other issues, including trade, energy policy and national security.

What does affordability mean for the US midterm elections?

The rising cost of living is likely to be a key test of the Trump administration’s economic record in the November 3 midterm elections.

Despite economic growth and gains in the stock market, higher prices, borrowing costs and healthcare expenses continue to weigh on households. Weak consumer confidence and concerns about employment have added to the strain.

A Pew Research Center survey found that voters were almost evenly divided over which party they trusted more on economic policy. Yet only around two in 10 said either party was focused on helping people like them.

The election results will show how voters judge the administration’s economic policies and whether affordability concerns influence control of Congress and state-level races.