Qualcomm Stock Has an AI Opportunity Most Nvidia Investors May Be Overlooking
Qualcomm just posted a 61% automotive surge and quietly signed two hyperscaler custom silicon deals, yet the market still prices it like a handset company. Here is why that gap may not last much longer.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM | QCOM Price Prediction) is $218.57 over the next 12 months. That is 21% above the current $180.61. Our model rates the stock a buy, and our confidence is high.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $180.61 |
| Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. | $218.57 |
| Upside | 21.0% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
Most AI investors stay focused on NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA). Meanwhile, Qualcomm is quietly building a data center business that includes two hyperscaler custom silicon engagements.
Both should start producing revenue in the December quarter. At a forward P/E of 18, the market is valuing Qualcomm as a handset company.
Handset Weakness Is Hiding a 61% Automotive Surge
Over the past week, Qualcomm rose 4.94%. It is down 8.43% over the past month and up 7.26% year to date. Shares sit 29.9% below the 52-week high of $257.56. In fiscal Q3, revenue came in at $9.95 billion, ahead of the $9.67 billion estimate. Non-GAAP EPS of $2.21 missed the $2.22 estimate, which ended a six-quarter beat run.
Handset revenue fell 20%. Automotive revenue rose 61% to $1.59 billion. In October, Qualcomm won a trial verdict and declared its quarterly dividend. Reuters also reported performance-focused job cuts worldwide.
Why Bulls See $238 Ahead
Management is aiming $40 billion in non-handset revenue by fiscal 2029, including more than $15 billion from the data center. Non-handset growth should rise from 24% in fiscal 2026 to more than 60% in fiscal 2027. Wafer production for the hyperscaler chips has already begun.
The HBC accelerator is scheduled to launch in mid-2027. Qualcomm also raised its exit-rate outlook for automotive to about $7 billion a year after BMW named it lead compute provider. Our bull case of $237.99 implies 31.8% upside.
What Could Stall the Data Center Story
Analysts lean conservative, with 23 Hold ratings against 11 Buy or Strong Buy ratings. Operating income fell 41.13% as memory and wafer costs rose. Management also expects Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) product revenue to drop about 50% from the September quarter to the December quarter.
Bulls would counter that Qualcomm is rolling out double-digit price increases that should bring gross margins back to their historical range. Our bear case of $185.64 still sits above today’s price.
Qualcomm Trades at a Steep Discount to NVIDIA and Broadcom
NVIDIA is the benchmark for AI valuation. It trades at 42 times earnings, compared with 34 for Qualcomm. NVIDIA earns that premium with a 55.6% net margin. Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) is the closest comparison for custom ASICs.
Its AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.70 billion, up 221%. That is the market Qualcomm is just entering (we covered seven suppliers riding the same expansion, from power to networking, in a free AI infrastructure report). Against these peers, our target looks conservative.
| Company | Market Cap | Latest-Quarter Revenue Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Qualcomm | $192.86B | -4.0% |
| NVIDIA | $5.21T | 105.85% |
| Broadcom | $1.58T | 85.5% |
Data Center Revenue Tips the Scale Toward Upside
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $218.57 carries a buy rating with 90% confidence. Cheap valuation coupled with hyperscaler revenue that is close at hand tips the scale.
I would find Qualcomm compelling if December-quarter data center revenue shows up as promised. I would turn conservative if price increases fail to restore margins.
| Year | Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $181.48 |
| 2027 | $218.57 |
| 2028 | $257.78 |
| 2029 | $284.78 |
| 2030 | $309.06 |
The projections rest on Qualcomm staying with its current strategy. Results could move well above or below them depending on how the hyperscaler ramp and the Apple transition play out.
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