What to know about the US economy as midterm elections near

The federal government has released most of the major economic data left to be unveiled ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, meaning voters already have all of the official economic numbers before they head to the polls.

But other indicators show that the economy ranks as a top concern among Americans, who are growing ever more frustrated with their increasing inability to make ends meet.

The University of Michigan’s monthly survey, for example, the latest of which was released last week, shows consumer sentiment currently stands at the second-lowest level ever recorded in the survey’s 74-year history.

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Additionally, half or more Americans described every household purchase category measured as “unaffordable” in the latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll. A 71% majority of respondents now call gasoline unaffordable, up from 28% who said the same in February, before the war in Iran drove up fuel costs.

The average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas stood at $4.22 a gallon Thursday, $1.19 more than this time a year ago, according to AAA, while a gallon of diesel averages $6.33 a gallon, a $2.65 per gallon increase compared to a year ago.

Still, employers are adding jobs, though hiring has slowed and the economy is continuing to grow.

Speaking at a rally in Corinth, Miss., on Monday, President Donald Trump said the U.S. economy was experiencing “unbelievable growth, the biggest growth in the history of our country.”

Trump acknowledged the rise in oil prices, but he said the war with Iran had been worth it to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

“I don’t want to belittle it because it’s a big thing but I thought the price of oil was going to go much, much higher and I was fully prepared to do it,” Trump said.

Consumer sentiment nears all-time low ahead of midterms

Here’s what to know about the U.S. economy as the midterm election nears.

Inflation is climbing. Shoppers are taking notice.

The Iran war sparked a rise of inflation, squeezing household budgets and leaving shoppers glum.

Prices rose at an annual rate of 3.7% in September, the most recent month on record, federal government data showed. Inflation runs more than a percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.

The pace of price increases is outpacing the average rise in wages, sapping spending power from workers’ take-home pay. Wages began to trail inflation in April, exacerbating the budget crunch.

Price hikes have taken a toll on the outlook among consumers. Consumer sentiment stands near the lowest level ever recorded in the 74-year history of the University of Michigan’s monthly survey. Shoppers expect inflation to rise even more over the next year, the survey found.

The economy is growing due in part to a boost from AI

The economy has continued to grow at a robust pace, shrugging off disruption from the Iran war and expanding at an annualized rate of 3.4% over the three months ending in September, according to a government report released on Thursday.

That growth amounted to an acceleration from 2.2% and 2.5% annualized GDP growth in the previous two quarters, respectively, U.S. Commerce Department data showed.

Economic growth so far this year stands roughly in line with the expansion recorded in 2025.

A surge in spending on artificial intelligence has helped boost the U.S. economy in recent quarters. The AI sector contributed an average of 0.56 percentage points GDP growth in each of the first two quarters, accounting for more than 20% of economic growth, according to a study published last month by J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of economic activity, has also proven resilient, surging 0.9% in August from July, marking the fastest monthly rise since March, federal government data showed.

Job growth is resilient but volatile

The labor market is growing at a fairly robust clip, though performance from one month to the next has fluctuated dramatically.

Gas prices unlikely to fall below $4 a gallon before midterms, some experts say

The U.S. added an average of about 68,000 jobs per month over the first nine months of this year, according to an analysis by the Atlanta Federal Reserve. That pace marks an uptick from an average of 10,000 jobs added each month in 2025.

Job gains have proven unstable, however. Employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, the most recent month on record, which marked a sharp slowdown from 133,000 jobs added in August, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed. That figure in August, meanwhile, demonstrated a major upswing from 10,000 jobs lost in July.

Even so, the yearly unemployment rate has remained consistently low since 2017, holding at 4.4% or lower with the exception of pandemic-era performance in 2020 and 2021, according to the BLS.