Weekly Stock Market Summary: FOMC, BOJ, and Earnings Rush, Nikkei 225 Up 0.95% for the Week [October 26–30]

It was a week where central bank meetings in Japan and the U.S. coincided with a flurry of major earnings reports. The Nikkei 225 rose to the 64,600 yen level in the latter half of the week, before ending Friday with a 1,369 yen decline.

Here is a look back at what happened and what moved stock prices, by the numbers.

📅 Nikkei 225 Weekly Performance

• 10/23 (Previous Friday) Closing Price: 62,693 yen

• 10/26 (Mon) Closing Price: 62,190 yen / Day-over-day: -504 yen

• 10/27 (Tue) Closing Price: 63,268 yen / Day-over-day: +1,079 yen

• 10/28 (Wed) Closing Price: 63,954 yen / Day-over-day: +686 yen

• 10/29 (Thu) Closing Price: 64,659 yen / Day-over-day: +705 yen

• 10/30 (Fri) Closing Price: 63,290 yen / Day-over-day: -1,369 yen

For the week, it was +597 yen (+0.95%). After rising 2,470 yen over the three days through Thursday, more than half of those gains were given back on Friday.

Friday’s decline was concentrated in high-priced AI and semiconductor stocks. The top five companies that dragged down the Nikkei 225 (Advantest, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank Group, Ibiden, and TDK) accounted for approximately 1,265 yen, or about 90% of the decline. The TOPIX fell only -0.95%, and on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market, 807 stocks rose, outnumbering the 714 that fell.

🏦 FOMC and BOJ: Both Hold Steady

① FOMC (Results announced U.S. time Oct 27–28, early morning Oct 29 Japan time)

The policy interest rate was held steady at 3.75–4.00%. However, the vote was 10 to 2, with two members dissenting (reportedly advocating for a rate hike). In the short-term money market, the probability of a rate hike in December was seen at around 90% (Kabutan).

② Bank of Japan (Oct 29–30, results on the 30th)

The policy interest rate was held steady at 1.25%. The vote was 8 to 1, with member Takata dissenting, proposing a rate hike to 1.5%.

The focus was on the view on prices. In the Outlook Report, it was written that the underlying inflation rate for consumer prices has reached a level “generally consistent with the 2% price stability target.” The median of the members’ price forecasts (excluding fresh food) is +2.5% for fiscal 2026 and +2.6% for fiscal 2027. It was also decided unanimously to accelerate the pace of selling off the ETFs held by the bank.

While interest rates were held steady in both Japan and the U.S., there were dissenting votes calling for rate hikes.

📊 Earnings and Stock Prices: Reactions Varied Even After Upward Revisions

This week saw a concentration of earnings reports from major Japanese and U.S. companies. Each article highlights the difference from market expectations rather than whether or not there was an upward revision.

• Komatsu raised its full-year net profit forecast to 382 billion yen, but it fell short of market expectations (around 395 billion yen), resulting in a -7.6% drop (10/29).

• Konami Group raised its operating profit forecast to 193 billion yen, exceeding market expectations (just under 180 billion yen), resulting in a +15.0% gain (10/30).

• Alphabet saw its cloud business double, but search and advertising fell short of expectations; Kabutan cited ‘concerns about whether revenue matches the massive AI investment’ (10/29 -12.6%).

The details of the earnings results and the reasons for the stock price divergence are summarized in detail in another article. The first half is free to read.

https://note.com/hato_finance/n/n3340223204d0

🛑 Three companies hit limit-low on Friday: The selling factors cited by articles differ

On October 30, Ibiden, Fujitsu, and Kurita Water Industries all hit limit-low (Kurita Water Industries closed at the limit-low proportional distribution). Even though they all ‘plunged,’ the factors cited by Kabutan articles, Fisco, and company announcements are different.

• Ibiden 10/30 movement: -15.2% (8,359 yen) / Factor: Its own earnings exceeded expectations and the full-year forecast was revised upward. The article cited the sharp after-hours drop following the earnings of its major client, Intel, as the selling factor.

• Fujitsu 10/30 movement: -16.2% (3,622 yen) / Factor: Adjusted operating profit for July–September was 59 billion yen, missing market expectations (around 77 billion yen) by approximately 23%.

• Kurita Water Industries 10/30 movement: -21.0% (5,647 yen) / Factor: Due to construction losses on a single project in the U.S., the full-year operating profit forecast was lowered from 65.5 billion yen to 43.5 billion yen.

The 68.5% year-on-year decline in Fujitsu’s net profit for the first half is a reaction to the gain on the sale of Shinko Electric Industries and others in the previous year. The performance of the core business should be viewed through adjusted operating profit (113.9 billion yen for the first half, -6.1%). While the full-year forecast (425 billion yen) was maintained, it is calculated that 311.1 billion yen will be required in the second half after subtracting the 113.9 billion yen from the first half. Articles suggest that the hurdle for achieving this has become higher (Fisco).

According to Fisco, Kurita Water Industries is expected to incur approximately 23.6 billion yen in additional costs for the full year, and it is noted that similar risks are being recognized for other projects as well.

🇺🇸 U.S. Stocks on Friday: Nasdaq -2.9%, Semiconductors -7.2%

On October 30, selling spread across tech and semiconductor stocks in the U.S. market (closing prices, day-over-day change).

• Dow Jones Industrial Average Closing price: 51,770 / Change: -1.1%

• S&P 500 Closing price: 7,580 / Change: -1.8%

• Nasdaq Composite Closing price: 25,437 / Change: -2.9%

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Closing price: 10,689 / Change: -7.2%

• Intel Closing price: $65.76 / Change: -28.6%

• Amazon Closing price: $240.35 / Change: -1.4%

• SanDisk Closing Price: $1,150.89 / Daily Change: -13.5%

Intel saw its losses widen from the -23% seen in after-hours trading, falling from the previous day’s closing price of $92.07 to $65.76. A Kabutan article from the morning of 10/30 cited the Q4 revenue outlook ($15.0–$16.0 billion), which fell short of market expectations ($17.05 billion), as the reason for the after-hours decline following the earnings report. Amazon narrowed its losses from -7% in after-hours trading to -1.4% at the close.

The dollar-yen exchange rate was around 157.5 yen.

👀 Highlights for Next Week

Next week, Tuesday the 3rd is a holiday in the Tokyo market (Culture Day), and Wednesday the 4th will involve trading while monitoring the results of the U.S. midterm elections. Toyota, Sony Group, and Nintendo are scheduled to announce their earnings on the 5th, and U.S. employment statistics (for October) will be released on the night of the 6th. A detailed schedule and points to check will be summarized in a separate article on Sunday.

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Sources

• Nikkei 225 closing price: Yahoo Finance, Kabutan (article from the market close on October 30)

• FOMC: Kabutan (October 29)

• BOJ: Bank of Japan “Statement on Monetary Policy” and “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices” (October 30, 2026)

• Earnings: Company earnings announcements, earnings reports, and Kabutan

※ This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend the buying or selling of any specific stock. Please make your own investment decisions.