Trump: 'Monday is the best day to buy tech stocks.' Is this remark a signal to buy, or just a cheer? Two companies selected by instruments, not posts, the week after Intel's …

Look at the instruments, not the headlines. This is the Shiometer.

Over the weekend, a post by President Trump on X to the effect that ‘Monday will be the best day to buy tech stocks’ has become a hot topic.

In the U.S. on Friday, the semiconductor stock index (SOX) was -7.20% and Intel was -28.6%. The ‘buy’ came right after that.

Table of Contents

1. What happened on Friday: Intel’s -28.6% and the stocks the government holds

2. Reading 1: What happened after the previous ‘it’s time to buy’ post

3. Reading 2: Which stocks does the person speaking hold?

4. Reading 3: The market sometimes moves in the opposite direction of Trump’s words

5. Japan’s Monday starts before America’s Monday

6. What to buy: 3 conditions that don’t rely on posts

7. Summary and what to watch on Monday

■1. What happened on Friday: Intel’s -28.6% and the stocks the government holds

Conclusion: Intel’s decline was caused not by the dream of AI, but by the company’s own weak outlook. And the U.S. government holds about 10% of those Intel shares.

・Intel was -28.6% on October 30, its biggest drop since 1974. The earnings per share forecast for October-December was $0.25, significantly lower than the market’s expectation of $0.43. It is reported that the CFO said, ‘Cash flow will not be positive in 2027.’

・The U.S. Department of Commerce holds approximately 433.3 million shares (about 10%) of Intel under an August 2025 agreement. According to reports, the value of these shares fell by about $11.3 billion in a single day on Friday.

・It is reported that over $1 trillion in market capitalization was wiped out in tech stocks in one day. The Nasdaq was -2.86%, its biggest drop since June 5.

In other words, one of the ‘shareholders’ who lost the most on Friday is the U.S. government. The ‘buy’ on Monday is a remark made two days later.

■2. Reading 1: What happened after the previous ‘it’s time to buy’ post

Conclusion: In the previous example, a policy was actually released after the post. That is why some people read it as ‘a preview of some announcement.’

・At 9:37 AM on April 9, 2025 (U.S. time), Trump posted, ‘THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!’

・About 4 hours later, he announced a 90-day suspension of some tariffs. The S&P 500 rose about 9.5% that day.

・In subsequent disclosures, it was reported that Trump’s account had purchased shares of major tech companies like Apple and Nvidia on the previous day, April 8.

Because of this precedent, people who think ‘there will be some kind of announcement on Monday’ will buy. However, this time, there is absolutely no visibility on what will be announced. Intel’s weak outlook is not about tariffs, so stopping tariffs will not fix it.

■3. Reading Method 2: Which stocks does the speaker hold?

Conclusion: This post is the words of someone who benefits if stock prices rise. Therefore, I read it not as information that ‘the numbers have improved,’ but as a cheer that they ‘want it to go up.’

・The U.S. government holds about 10% of Intel’s stock. With Friday’s decline, its value dropped by about $11.3 billion in one day.

・Trump’s account was reported in the January-March 2026 disclosure to have purchased shares of major tech companies such as Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, and Broadcom.

・November 3 is the voting day for the U.S. midterm elections. A drop in stock prices the day before the vote is not good for the administration.

Cheers may move stock prices for a day. But they do not increase a company’s sales by even one yen.

■4. Reading Method 3: The market sometimes moves in the opposite direction of Trump’s words

Conclusion: Trump’s words do not always have an effect in the same direction. There are examples where it moved in the opposite direction.

・The Nikkei newspaper, in an article on March 31, highlighted the ‘contrarian indicator’ nature where Trump’s remarks and market movements are opposite. These are examples where he posted strong words, but the market moved in the opposite direction.

・The previous ‘time to buy’ was paired with tariffs, which is ‘something Trump can decide himself.’ The reason for this tech decline is Intel’s outlook and concerns about the recovery of AI investments. These are not things the President can decide himself.

・In other words, I read this post as having less ‘substance’ than the previous example.

■5. Japan’s Monday starts before the U.S. Monday

Conclusion: Japanese investors will have to decide whether to buy on Monday morning before seeing the U.S. answer.

・Japanese Monday trading starts at 9:00 AM. U.S. Monday trading starts at 11:30 PM Japan time.

・Nikkei 225 futures night trading closed at 62,349 yen (-941 yen).

・Tuesday, November 3, is a holiday in Japan, and there is no trading. That day is the midterm election voting day in the U.S. Stocks bought in Japan on Monday cannot be sold until Wednesday, spanning two nights: the U.S. Monday and the election day.

Therefore, buying high on Monday morning ‘believing in the post’ is the form most likely to result in a loss. This is because you are taking on the risk of two nights without seeing the U.S. answer.

■6. What to buy: 3 conditions that do not rely on posts

Conclusion: If I buy, I will only buy companies that I can buy even without posts. There are 3 conditions.

・Condition 1: In the Friday earnings report, the company itself raised its ‘full-year forecast’ or issued one for the first time, and it is a record high profit.

・Condition 2: It was not sold off even in the PTS (after-hours trading) on Friday night when the SOX was -7.20%. The numbers are proof that it outperformed the market sentiment.

・Condition 3: The PER is lower than popular companies in the same industry. I choose by numbers rather than expectations.

In fact, in the earnings report after the close on Friday, a major semiconductor manufacturing equipment company issued a full-year forecast that it had not previously released. Ordinary profit is +87.0%, which is a plan for a record high profit for the first time in two terms. That company was +1.96% in the PTS on Friday night.

A company that makes parts used in semiconductor equipment also raised its full-year ordinary profit forecast by 20% and was +7.09% in the PTS.

Conversely, companies that do not meet the conditions are also clear.

・Major memory manufacturer Kioxia had a final PTS value of -12.36%

・A major electronic components manufacturer that raised its full-year forecast on the same day still closed at -7.72% and fell further in the PTS

・A semiconductor inspection equipment company whose ordinary profit from July to September was -46% was -8.81%

Even within ‘tech,’ the answer on Friday night is divided by the company’s numbers.

■7. Summary and what to watch on Monday

・The author has not been able to verify the original text of Trump’s post to the effect that ‘Monday is the best day to buy tech stocks.’ Even if it were genuine, I would read it as a ‘cheer’ rather than ‘numbers’.

・The previous ‘time to buy’ came with the substance of stopping tariffs. The reason for this tech decline is Intel’s outlook and concerns about AI investment, which is not something the President can decide on his own.

・The parties speaking are the government, which holds about 10% of Intel’s shares, and the accounts that have been buying tech stocks. And November 3rd is the midterm election.

・Monday in Japan starts before Monday in the US. Since Tuesday is a holiday, buying on Monday means taking on the risk of two nights.

・If I buy, I will only buy companies that I can buy even without posts. Companies that issued a record high profit forecast on Friday and were not sold off in the PTS on the night when the SOX was -7.20%.

What to watch on Monday

・Whether the Nikkei Average at 9:00 AM starts above or below the 62,349 yen of the night futures

・In the 30 minutes of the morning, will semiconductor stocks follow a pattern of ‘opening higher only to be sold off’?

・In the US at night, will Intel and Nvidia be bought as the post suggests?

・Tuesday, November 3rd, is a public holiday in Japan and the day of the midterm elections in the US.

What is written ahead is:

・Unfolding the chart: How to distinguish between ‘cheering buys’ and ‘data-driven buys.’ How to use Friday night’s PTS as a gauge.

・Recommendation 1. A company that released its full-year forecast for the first time, planning for a record-high ordinary profit of +87.0%. The second half is 2.1 times that of the previous year. Dividends are effectively +52%. The net and the exit line.

・Recommendation 2. A company whose first-half ordinary profit exceeded its own plan by 32.8%. Even after raising its full-year forecast by 20%, its second-half exchange rate assumption remains at 150 yen to the dollar. PER is 13.0x. The net and the exit line.

・Companies to pass on, and the reasons why.

・Rules for buying on Monday morning.